National Football League

2023 NFL odds: Best Week 15 predictions, including Cowboys-Bills

Updated Dec. 12, 2023 12:26 p.m. ET

Week 15 of the NFL season is upon us, with 30 of 32 teams still in the playoff hunt.

Thirteen teams are either 7-6 or 6-7, so the action in the final four weeks of the season will be interesting.

Both conference races are shaping up to be a battle, with the Baltimore Ravens (10-3) atop the AFC, just ahead of the 9-4 Miami Dolphins, who lost to Tennessee at home on Monday night.

There's a three-way tie atop the NFC between the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles (all 10-3), with the Lions right behind at 9-4.

Here are my favorite early wagers for an important Week 15 in the NFL.

(All times ET)

Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals (1 p.m. Saturday, NFL Network)

The Vikings benched Josh Dobbs on Sunday against the Raiders, as the offense was stuck in the mud over the past month. Minnesota's offense put up 20 points against the Broncos, followed by 10 against the Bears and just three points on Sunday against Las Vegas.

If the Vikings go back to Dobbs, I don't expect much offensive improvement, and if they go with Nick Mullens, why would we expect more points?

Also, receiver Justin Jefferson, their best offensive player, returned from injury only to get hurt again and might miss this week.

The Under is a fade of Bengals backup quarterback Jake Browning, who has played out of his mind in the past two weeks. Browning has thrown for nearly 600 yards, although Sunday saw a good chunk of yards via the screen pass.

Nonetheless, he's playing well, but I don't see it continuing against this Vikings defense, as backups tend to come back down to Earth just as quickly as they shoot up.

Also worth noting: Minnesota's defense has been strong this season (fifth in DVOA). I see a lower-scoring game in this one.

PICK: Under 39.5 points scored by both teams combined

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (1 p.m. Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Falcons are 2-7 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite, but that should not dissuade anyone from wagering on them in this game.

The Panthers have one win this season and a single cover in the game they won against the Houston Texans 15-13 on Oct. 29. That appears to be the high point for Carolina this season.

This Panthers team isn't funny bad — it is just awful bad.

Carolina does nothing well and does not have a quarterback who can make magic plays to help this team stay close in games. It's a dead team and a franchise that's a laughingstock.

If Atlanta can just play steady and avoid the weekly dumb turnover by quarterback Desmond Ridder, the Falcons will win going away.

PICK: Falcons (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Colin Cowherd believes Bills' gameplan could harm Josh Allen in the long run

Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills (4:25 p.m. Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

What an opportunity here — a chance to fade a red-hot Cowboys team playing on the road at Buffalo!

This is the first game for Dallas played outdoors in a month, and, as usual, it will be cold in Buffalo.

Everyone just saw the Cowboys demolish the Philadelphia Eagles, so money will pour in on Dallas.

Meanwhile, the Bills needed a misaligned Chiefs wide receiver to win their game in Kansas City.

Digging deeper, we see the Cowboys are fifth in DVOA while the Bills are sixth, and Buffalo actually has a more efficient offense than Dallas.

The Bills have only seven wins, but they are +104 in point differential.

For reference, the Indianapolis Colts, the current seventh seed in the AFC, have a -16 point differential. The point is, while the wins might not be there for the Bills, they are still playing good football.

This feels like the perfect weekend to take them while fading a hot Cowboys team on the road in the cold.

Remember, the NFL is the best sport at humbling those getting all the love.

PICK: Bills (-1.5 at time of pick) to win by more than 1.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.