National Football League

2023 NFL odds: Will Bryce Young buck trend among top picks in first start?

Updated Sep. 6, 2023 12:30 p.m. ET

All eyes will be on rookie quarterback Bryce Young in Week 1, when he starts for the Carolina Panthers on the road against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

Carolina coach Frank Reich named Young QB1 on July 26, and Panthers fans hope the No. 1 pick bucks a trend during his first NFL start: 14 quarterbacks have been the top pick in the NFL Draft since 2003, and those heralded QBs are 0-13-1 straight up (SU) and 1-13 against the spread (ATS) in their first pro start.

The only rookie QB to cover the spread in that span is Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals. They played to a 27-27 overtime tie against the Detroit Lions in Murray's first NFL start on Sept. 8, 2019.

As of Thursday, the Falcons are 3.5-point favorites to defeat the Panthers at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Here's a look at how the previous 14 QBs drafted No. 1 overall fared in their first starts:

2021: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: Lost to Texans 37-21
2020: Joe Burrow, Bengals: Lost to Chargers 16-13
2019: Kyler Murray, Cardinals: Tied Lions 27-27
2018: Baker Mayfield, Browns: Lost to Raiders 45-42 OT
2016: Jared Goff, Rams: Lost to Dolphins 14-10
2015: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers: Lost to Titans 42-14
2012: Andrew Luck, Colts: Lost to Bears 41-21
2011: Cam Newton, Panthers: Lost to Cardinals 28-21
2010: Sam Bradford, Rams: Lost to Cardinals 17-13
2009: Matthew Stafford, Lions: Lost to Saints 45-27
2007: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders: Lost to Chargers 30-17
2005: Alex Smith, 49ers: Lost to Colts 28-3 (10-9-05)
2004: Eli Manning, Chargers (traded to Giants): Lost to Falcons 14-10
2003: Carson Palmer, Bengals: Lost to Jets 31-24

Who will be the best rookie QB this season?

Which of these young QBs will have the most success in 2023?

The last quarterback drafted first overall to win his initial NFL start? David Carr of the Houston Texans, who beat the Dallas Cowboys 19-10 on Sept. 8, 2002.

On a recent episode of "Undisputed," co-host Keyshawn Johnson shared with Skip Bayless and special guest Lil' Wayne his concerns surrounding Young, namely, his size.

"This ain't being a musician. Musicians come in all sizes. … There's a reason smaller guys in this position struggle. He's not a 6-foot-1, 225-pound rock solid. He's not Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson isn't tall, but he ain't slight. He's stout. Bryce Young is 5-10, 204 pounds listed. … You look at Kyler Murray: has some flash, but constantly hurt, constantly hurt. Now he's on the shelf, and you don't know what his career is gonna be."

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