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2023 NFL Week 12 odds: Best bets, including Commanders-Cowboys to hit Over
NFL Week 12 is here, and to fans' delight, there are three games on Thanksgiving Day!
If you follow us in this space, you know I went 3-1-1 last week (pushed Cardinals +5 against Texans, 21-16 final).
RELATED: NFL Thanksgiving betting trends to know
That means I am 34-25-1 on the season.
Let's keep this thing rolling!
Let's dive into my best bets for NFL Week 12.
(All times ET)
Commanders @ Cowboys (4:30 p.m. Thursday, CBS)
Dak Prescott has struggled on Thanksgiving with Dallas (1-5 against the spread), but he shouldn't struggle with this abysmal Washington secondary, one that made Tommy DeVito actually look like an NFL quarterback last week (three touchdown passes).
I looked long at the side here and nearly took the 12.5 points, as Sam Howell won't stop throwing, just as he didn't against Denver (cover) and Philadelphia (cover).
The Commanders have thrived in the underdog role, going 5-1-1 ATS. I don't know if Howell is good, but the QBs that mighty Dallas has faced include Daniel Jones, DeVito, Bryce Young (rookie), Josh Dobbs, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones.
PICK: Over 48.5 points scored by both teams combined
Why Cowboys sit outside of Colin Cowherd's latest Super Bowl bubble
Bills @ Eagles (4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS)
Philadelphia has been a juggernaut at home with Jalen Hurts the last two years, going 11-1 with just one loss to Washington.
Coming off the emotional Super Bowl revenge win in Kansas City, and with a massive NFC game looming next week against the 49ers (NFC title game rematch!), it would be understandable if the Eagles had a bit of a letdown here.
I don't like Buffalo's defense, and don't read anything into a nice showing against the Zach Wilson/Tim Boyle combo. But if you're giving me the hook, I'll gladly take it.
PICK: Bills (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Saints @ Falcons (1 p.m. Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)
This line has been hovering around pick 'em all week, largely due to uncertainty on injuries for the Saints.
It doesn't sound good for their top cornerback Marshon Lattimore (high-ankle sprain), and WR Michael Thomas went on injured reserve with a knee injury.
At the time of publication, we still don't know if Derek Carr is going to start after being in concussion protocol. It actually might help them if Taysom Hill starts.
The Saints have struggled against running QBs, and I expect Arthur Smith to keep this simple: 20 or fewer passes for Desmond Ridder, and 40-plus carries from the team.
PICK: Falcons (+1) to lose by 1 point (or win outright)
49ers @ Seahawks (8:20 p.m. Thursday, NBC)
Seattle lost all three games to San Francisco last season, and while this is a large number, it's also a bet against Geno Smith staying healthy against this fearsome 49ers front.
He was knocked out of the game by Aaron Donald last week and though he did return, there's no telling if he'll be 100 percent.
Kenneth Walker is out for the Seahawks, and DK Metcalf has been beat up all season — his numbers are tracking toward some of the lowest in his career.
PICK: 49ers (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points
Do Brock Purdy, 49ers have a must-win game against Geno Smith, Seahawks?
3-team, 7-point teaser
Lions -7.5 to -5
Detroit should be able to run all over a bad Green Bay defense, and I don't expect the Lions defense to play as poorly as it did the last couple weeks.
The Packers are beat up, with a slew of injuries at running back, tight end and wide receiver.
Texans +1.5 to +8.5
If you've been reading all season, you know the way to tease games is through the key numbers of three and seven. Houston getting more than a touchdown is a gift.
After their first two games of the season (0-2), the Texans are 6-2, with both losses by two points.
Chargers +3.5 to +10.5
Los Angeles was +4 and took large professional money early in the week. Baltimore is coming off a big divisional win and the loss of star tight end Mark Andrews.
I'm not sure how the Chargers slow them down, and there's a world where Lamar Jackson goes off on turf and gets back in the MVP discussion.
Still, every Chargers game feels close, even when they face elite teams (Dallas, Miami, Detroit). They just happen to be 0-5 in games decided by three points or fewer.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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