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A Marauding In Minneapolis: Why the Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings
Dec 24, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson (87) and quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrate a touchdown completion in the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jim Matthews/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin via USA TODAY Sports
With many playoffs hopefuls falling short in Week 16 to either severely hamper or end their dreams early, the Green Bay Packers took care of business to come away with a 38-25 victory over the Minnesota Vikings to get to 9-6.
Unlike the game against Chicago this one didn’t end up being in doubt towards the end, with Green Bay holding a 25-point lead about midway through the fourth quarter before a few meaningless scores brought things closer at the end.
What went so much differently in this outing than the 17-14 disappointment which occurred in the last meeting between these squads?
Here’s what I came away feeling was most responsible for this outcome…
Dec 24, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Mike Daniels (76) recovers a fumble by Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford (not pictured) in the second quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin via USA TODAY Sports
First-Half Takeaways
After turnovers were a struggle for most of 2016 for Green Bay, they have begun to show a much better aptitude for them in the past few weeks.
Through 12 weeks, Green Bay sat at just 12 total on the year; combined with their giveaways (17), they sat at an ugly -5 margin — a strange reality for Aaron Rodgers-led teams, which have tended to end up deeply positive.
Against Seattle and Chicago, that changed dramatically. Green Bay didn’t add any giveaways in those contests while their defense forced a stunning ten of them; almost instantly, that -5 turnover differential had been flipped into a +5 one instead. To continue their run to the playoffs, the continued flipping of the script in this matter would seem necessary, especially with the Vikings coming in as a top-5 team in terms of turnover differential (+9 prior to this game).
Fortunately for Green Bay, that’s exactly what happened. The Packers didn’t add to their recent interception splurge (8 in the prior two games), but they did come away with two fumble recoveries in the first half. More importantly, those turnovers came at decisive moments.
The first fumble recovery came on Minnesota’s fourth drive. The score was sitting at 14-6, with the past two drives for the Vikings resulting in field goals; another score there could have potentially tied up the game despite a pretty decent start by Green Bay’s own offense. Instead, Green Bay was given a dose of luck, with Sam Bradford unable to handle the snap properly before Kenny Clark came away with the ball.
The second fumble recovery was at least as important. Two drives after the first, with both teams having scored in between, saw Minnesota down just 21-13 and halftime fast approaching. A score there would have given them a potential tie score after two quarters — and they were set to receive the ball after halftime as well, lining up the eminent possibility of the Packers trailing despite touchdowns on three of their first six drives versus the league’s #8 DVOA defense. Instead, Green Bay managed to force that fumble four plays in, cutting short yet another possible problem before it could occur.
With the help of those fumbles, Green Bay jumped out to their big lead and did not have to worry much about Minnesota coming all that close the rest of the way.
Dec 24, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers celebrates his second quarter touchdown run with fans with a Lambeau Leap against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin via USA TODAY Sports
Scoring Off Those Turnovers
Forcing turnovers is pretty good on its own, saving potential points while often providing a team with a solid field position advantage in the process.
Those turnovers don’t really reach their full game-changing impact if a team is unable to convert them into points, however. It does take away a possession from the opposing offense of course, but when they get the ball back (assuming this isn’t a situation with little-to-no time remaining) that team is still facing the same level of deficit as before; should they score then, that turnover’s impact amounts to little more than a delay.
No worries about that here, as the Packers turned both of their forced fumbles into points.
That first turnover saw Green Bay get the ball back with a 14-6 lead; they swiftly drove from the Minnesota 42 into the end zone in three plays to push the lead to 21-6.
The second saw Green Bay have a 21-13 lead. This one had less time to work with (just 0:54 left before the half), but again with great starting field position (their own 46 yard line) the offense marched down the field to build upon their lead with another touchdown; the lead now sat at 28-13, with only some spare seconds left before the half.
With the scores off these turnovers, not only were Minnesota’s efforts to bring the game closer shut down, but the game was put even further out of their reach in each instance. For an offense which has struggled to even reach 20 points in most games (the Vikings have a 19.3 ppg average after this contest, and that includes scores which came from their defense and special teams groups), essentially gifting 14 to the opposition put them into the sort of hole they were unable to overcome.
Dec 24, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews (52) pressures Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford (8) in the second quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Adam Wesley/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin via USA TODAY Sports
Dynamic Pass-Rush Duo Returns
For much of this season, Green Bay’s pass rush has been in flux.
In terms of raw numbers they have had production (their 38 sacks through 16 weeks is tied for 5th-best in the league, and they have at least one in every game), but it has been scattershot in terms of effectiveness across games.
For example: they picked up two sacks against the Falcons earlier this year, but those came on back-to-back plays on a single drive; outside of that, they rarely even pressured Matt Ryan. That’s just one example, but similar instances have occurred in practically every game this year.
A big part of that problem is the fact that their top two pass rushing options have either missed time or been severely hampered for major stretches of this season.
The big name there is obviously Clay Matthews, who’s seen a drastic nosedive in his effectiveness in 2016. His return to full-time outside linebacker duties was supposed to bring out his best, but a series of injuries have emaciated his ability to make a difference. It has shown up in his box-score statistics and advanced stats alike: his 20 tackles and 4 sacks coming in have set this up to be his worst season since he was drafted, and Pro Football Focus’ grading system rates his year as deeply replacement-level quality (prior to 2016, he never rated lower than 77.9 on their 0-100 scale when playing mainly as an edge rusher; right now, he rates below 50). Injuries have been a major factor; ankle, hamstring, and shoulder problems have made him miss 4 games, see under 30 snaps in 5 others, and generally just not able to use his usual speed and power when he has managed to be on the field.
The other end of that coin is Nick Perry. Perry had actually been the healthier of the two this year, rating out as one of the best pass rushers in the entire league (through 12 games, he had 8 sacks and was among the league leaders in forcing pressure, per PFF). He got injured early against Houston however, essentially missing the past three games — and it was expected to be more.
Surprisingly both he and Matthews managed to see the field here though, and they showed just how devastating the duo can be when actually lined up together.
Matthews had the banner day between them, coming out as far and away the highest-graded defender for Green Bay’s defense (per PFF). He forced Green Bay’s second fumble of the afternoon on a strip-sack; to go with it were 3 other pressures, 2 batted passes, and 3 run stops. As the game wore on and Green Bay eventually settled into a more conservative gameplan with their huge lead, Matthews managed to still have done enough damage to almost be the only player across the entire unit to receive an above-average grade from PFF in his season-high 55 snaps.
Perry may not have been as impressive on every play, but for a player in a surprisingly early return from an injury which was expected to keep him out for another month it was a fine showing. In a limited role which gave him only 34 snaps to work with, Perry picked up two sacks — both on Minnesota’s final two drives, with the second one officially ending the game.
The competition here wasn’t good (Minnesota’s 38 sacks allowed is 10th in the league and they’ve allowed numerous other pressures and hits on their quarterback this year; I’m shocked Bradford hasn’t lost a limb playing behind that line), but this could still be a positive sign of things to come.
With Perry and Matthews both back from injury and getting to the quarterback again, it could give a desperate Green Bay pass defense (#20 Pass Defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders) an actual strength to lean on next week when they fight for the division crown against the Lions.
Dec 24, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) passes for a touchdown to wide receiver Jordy Nelson (not pictured) in the second quarter during the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Dragonfire From Deep
After some (massively overblown) struggles in the first half of the year, Aaron Rodgers has returned to being the quarterback we’ve come to expect.
Since Week 7, nobody rates higher in terms of PFF’s grading system, and his production has been excellent: from Weeks 8-15, he accumulated a 67.7% completion percentage (would be tied for 4th-best in the league over the full season) while averaging 285.6 yards per game (5th), 7.88 yards per pass attempt (5th), a 109.8 passer rating (3rd) and a 73.5 QBR (6th; strangely lower than his actual full-season mark of 4th somehow) while adding in a 19:3 TD:INT ratio.
How does Rodgers follow a stretch like that up? With perhaps his best game of the season.
Against the Vikings he put up a stellar line: 28/38 for 347 yards (a 9.13 yards-per-attempt average), 4 TD passes (and a rushing TD as well), 136.6 passer rating, and a 95.4 passer rating.
Where my focus is directly relates to in this performance is that yards-per-attempt number. For the better part of two seasons, we have heard many (including myself) talk about the profound lack of the deep passes in this offense, and that number tends to show a direct correlation with long completions for an offense.
Look at the first six games of the year: Rodgers only reached 7.00 ypa twice, failing to even reach 6.00 in all four of those other contests; deep passes were few and far between in those games. Since then it has risen dramatically, but we hadn’t quite seen a stellar deep performance of the magnitude which Rodgers and company provided for us against Minnesota.
Nine different times, Rodgers connected with one of his receivers for passes of at least 15 yards. He hit Jordy for passes of 15, 21, 48, and 33 yards, with the second one going for a touchdown. He found Davante Adams for 19 and 20 yards (the second being a touchdown). Youngster Geronimo Allison got in the mix for a couple as well (15 and 32 yards), and Jared Cook finished off the long strikes with a 30 yarder of his own.
Those deep shots accounted for 233 of Rodgers’ 347 yards on the afternoon. Not only that, but eight of those nine on scoring drives, with two directly becoming scores.
The deep ball may have been missing at one point for these guys, but Rodgers and his receiving crew found it more consistently than we’ve seen from them in years against one of 2016’s tougher defenses in a game Green Bay absolutely needed to win.
Dec 24, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson (87) spikes the ball after his first quarter touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin via USA TODAY Sports
The Nelson Renaissance
All things considered, Jordy Nelson has had a pretty stellar return after missing all of 2015 to a torn ACL.
The likely comeback player of the year had been among the league’s leaders in touchdown catches for most of the season and already gotten beyond 1,000 receiving yards before we even got to this game against Minnesota — quite an accomplishment for a wideout on the wrong side of 30 having to return from a season-long absence.
Still, at times this year it had been painfully obvious he still was not fully back to the player he used to be. We saw flummoxing drops mixed in with an inability to break away from the coverage all too often, and his prior game-changing ability to routinely bust open deep receptions had not returned in more than fleeting flashes.
After this game though, I’m officially ready to say he’s fully returned to that former level.
Nelson put up his best overall game of the season against the Vikings. He put together every positive aspect of his 2016 season and patched on his pre-2015 abilities with it. He caught 9 of 11 passes targeting him, taking those for a season-high 154 yards. He picked up two touchdown catches — one from 21 yards out to start the scoring, another from 2 yards away to pile onto the early lead.
Most importantly to me was his contributions on deep passes. He had the major 60-yarder against the Bears, but while the situations weren’t as dire in this contest his showing against the Vikings is even more impressive in my eyes. He grabbed four different passes that picked up at least 15 yards in this game — three of which jump-started scoring drives for his team as they built an insurmountable lead.
His ability threw off the Vikings in a major way, to the point that reports came out about Minnesota’s defensive backs bucking against their coach’s gameplan to figure out how they should stop him. Apparently what they did didn’t matter much: that was supposedly for only one series at the beginning (Nelson got a 15 yard completion on that drive), and the gameplan they originally went against then saw him pick up nearly all of his yardage and both of his scores in the 28-13 first half lead for Green Bay.
He may not have made the Pro Bowl, but this performance was more than enough to show Nelson has fully returned to his top-5 receiver form just in time for a winner-takes-all battle for the NFC North in Week 17.
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