National Football League

Betting action report: Bettors expect Chiefs to rebound, Penn State huge favorites

Published Sep. 14, 2023 3:17 p.m. ET

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

In mid-September, the story of the college football betting universe — and even overshadowing the NFL — is the Colorado Buffaloes. So much so that FOX Sports has an entirely separate article on odds and action for Coach Prime's Week 3 clash against Colorado State.

But there are plenty more storylines to cover on NFL Week 2 odds and college football Week 3 odds, not the least of which is the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs looking to avoid an 0-2 start this season.

So it's onto this week's NFL and college football betting nuggets.

The Sharp Side

Kansas City suffered a surprising 21-20 home loss to Detroit in Week 1, after closing as a 4-point home favorite. But it's worth noting the Chiefs were without star tight end Travis Kelce (knee) and standout defensive lineman Chris Jones (holdout).

Jones returned to the fold Monday and is expected to play Sunday at Jacksonville. Kelce is practicing in limited fashion and might play vs. the Jags, though he's questionable as of Wednesday night. With perhaps both players returning, professional bettor Randy McKay got in early on the Chiefs at -2.5 for Sunday's 1 p.m. ET kickoff.

"It's a tough schedule spot for the Jags, and K.C. is coming off extra rest," McKay said, noting the Chiefs played on Thursday night in Week 1. "Also, K.C. getting back Jones will help against the Jags' porous offensive line."

Kansas City is now a consensus 3.5-point favorite against Jacksonville, which is coming off a 31-21 win as a 3.5-point fave at Indianapolis.

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Behind the Counter

Chris Fargis, senior director of trading risk at Fanatics Sportsbook, touched on a few matchups in the NFL Week 2 odds market, including the Thursday night clash between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles.

"Although the line has dropped from -7.5 to -6, our customers are against the move and backing the Eagles in the Thursday night matchup," Fargis said. 

That’s not a surprise, as public/recreational bettors were heavily on Philly in last week’s 25-20 win at New England. The Eagles covered as 3.5-point favorites. 

As for the 1.5-point drop from Eagles -7.5 to -6, other sportsbooks have reported sharp play on the Vikings.

Other quick hitters from Fargis:

• Chiefs vs. Jaguars: "Customers liked the Chiefs’ side, and we’ve nudged this one to -3.5."
• New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys: In Week 1, the Jets lost Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) for the rest of the season. Hence a big line move in Jets-Cowboys. "On Monday morning, the Cowboys were listed as a 3.5-point favorite over the Jets. After the Rodgers injury, we are looking at -8.5 now."
• Seahawks vs. Lions: Interestingly, a lot of customers are opting to lay -220 or so with Detroit on the moneyline, rather than bet Lions -4.5 (-110). "There are five times as many Lions moneyline bets as Seahawks moneyline bets so far."
• 49ers vs. Rams: "This is shaping up to be one of the most-lopsided games for the book, with 95% of the early money on the 49ers." San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite.

College Football Rocks on FOX

Though FOX Sports' Big Noon Kickoff pregame show is in Boulder for Colorado State-Colorado, the actual noon ET game on FOX pits No. 7 Penn State vs. Illinois (FOX and the FOX Sports App).

The Nittany Lions opened -16.5 at BetMGM and are already down to -14.5 on the road. But that's not indicative of action midweek.

"It's all Penn State money so far. I would expect that to continue through Saturday," BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker said.

No. 11 Tennessee vs. Florida is another key Saturday matchup, with a 7 p.m. ET kickoff. Pro bettors are weighing in early on this SEC clash in Gainesville, Florida.

"So far, the sharp action has come in on the Gators, as we've seen the spread drop to under a touchdown from the opener of Tennessee -7.5," Drucker said, noting the Vols are now -6.5. "However, I would anticipate us needing the Gators. It will be interesting to see the final numbers come kickoff.

Drucker provided insights on two more Saturday matchups:

– LSU vs. Mississippi State: BetMGM opened visiting LSU -8.5 and has already touched -10 a couple times, with the line -9.5 (-115, bet $10 to win $18.70 total) late Wednesday night. "Interesting early sharp action on LSU that drove the number to -9.5. I think we will be cheering for the Bulldogs come Saturday."

– Minnesota vs. North Carolina: The host Tar Heels are up to -7.5 from a -6.5 opener. "An extreme clash of styles here, with Minnesota's ground-and-pound vs. North Carolina's air-it-out spread with QB Drake Maye. The public is on North Carolina so far, and I would expect that to continue."

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Not Hog Wild 

Expert college football bettor Paul Stone is eschewing more marquee Saturday games and instead looking at BYU-Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 8-point home favorites, but won't have tailback Raheim "Rocket" Sanders (knee) for this 7 p.m. ET kickoff.

Sanders also sat out last week's 28-6 home win over Kent State, in which Arkansas failed to cover as a massive 38-point favorite. Sanders rushed for 1,400 yards last season.

"With Sanders sidelined, Arkansas' offense really struggled last week — 308 total yards and an average of only 4.8 yards per play — against one of the worst teams in the entire FBS, Kent State," Stone said. "The Razorbacks may get out with the victory, but 8 points is too many to pass up, considering the current state of their offense."

So mark Stone down for BYU +8.

Patriot Play

Back in the NFL, McKay noted one more play he's on for Week 2: New England Patriots +2.5 at home, in a Sunday night showdown against the Miami Dolphins.

"I'm coming back with the Patriots this week, after an unfortunate no-cover last week," McKay said.

Last week, McKay was on New England +4.5 and +4, and the Pats lost to the visiting Philadelphia Eagles 25-20. However, 10 Eagles points came off Patriots first-quarter turnovers — a pick-six and a fumble that was converted into a field goal.

McKay thinks Bill Belichick's troops can clean things up and get there this week.

"This has always been a home-team series vs. Miami," McKay said. "I was impressed with New England's defense against Philly's offense. I believe they will have same success vs. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill."

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

At midweek, there haven't been any reported big plays in the college football Week 3 odds market, nor the NFL Week 2 odds market. But there were some serious dollars flying on the Buffalo Bills-New York Jets Monday nighter to wrap up NFL Week 1.

After losing Aaron Rodgers just four plays into their first possession, the Jets somehow won 22-16 in overtime. New York clinched it on a 65-yard Xavier Gipson punt-return touchdown. Major wagers on that game:

– $100,000 on Jets moneyline +122 at Caesars Sports. Wins $122,000, for a $222,000 total payout.

– $260,000 on Bills moneyline -130 at BetMGM. Loss.

– $100,000 on Bills -2.5. Loss.

Additionally, a bettor at Caesars Sports put $100,000 on the Dallas Cowboys +1600 to win the Super Bowl. The bet was made before Dallas' 40-0 blasting of the host New York Giants in the Week 1 Sunday night game.

The Cowboys are now the +1100 fifth choice in Caesars' Super Bowl odds market, behind only the +700 co-first choice of 49ers/Eagles/Chiefs, and the +1000 fourth-choice Bills.

My #ChilisMoney Super Bowl bet on Denver Broncos +6000 already looks like a mistake. But at least it was an inexpensive one. Which is a good reminder: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. 

Enjoy the football betting weekend.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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Patrick Everson