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Cheat Sheet: Why Bengals will nab elusive playoff victory
Sunday will mark 10 years to the week when Steelers defensive tackle (and former Bengal) Kimo von Oelhoffen shattered Carson Palmer's knee on the second play from scrimmage in the '06 AFC wild card round. The Bengals were the favored team. Lights out offense led by a Pro Bowl quarterback. A shutdown defense. The Steelers were coming in as the No. 6 seed, winners of four straight to end their regular season, but with holes abound.
Jon Kitna kept the Bengals in the game, but it was over once Palmer went down. 31-17. The Steelers would go on to win Super Bowl XL four weeks later.
Kimo Von Oelhoffen. It's a name and a memory Cincinnati sports fans will rattle off in a string of others -- all heartbreaking -- all "Why us?"
Kenyon Martin's broken leg days before the NCAA Tournament.
Joe Montana to John Taylor (with the John Candy story for the little extra gut punch, to boot)
The 2012 Cincinnati Reds, up 2-0, and lose all three to the San Francisco Giants, the eventual World Series champions.
Kimo von Oelhoffen.
It has been 10 years.
You know the statistics. You know the facts. You know the masochist nature of it all. The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since the 1990 season and Marvin Lewis hasn't sniffed the Divisional Round of the playoffs since his days in Baltimore as an assistant coach in 2000. They haven't advanced past the wild card round since Kimo von Oelhoffen, losing when they've been home, losing when they've been away, losing when they've been the favorites, losing when they've been the underdogs.
The quarterback names and Presidential candidates and pop songs and whatever other dated references that you can list as examples of the time between Lewis's last playoff success and now are endless. But as the Bengals prepare for yet another primetime game, and yet another big home contest in which they're listed as the underdogs, I'm going to be the one. I'll step out on the limb.
This, on the 10-year to the week anniversary of the most symbolic play in Cincinnati Bengals history, demons will be put to rest.
Barring a miracle recovery from Andy Dalton, it'll be A.J. McCarron Saturday night versus the Steelers. And that's just fine. McCarron has done more than merely hold serve with Andy Dalton out; he's improved week to week and proven he, too, can be an NFL quarterback. Even in the Monday night Week 16 loss to the Broncos, McCarron showed he could sling it in cold weather, could adjust at the line of scrimmage, and wasn't scared of the big moment. He's won two national titles on the biggest of stages, with perhaps an even bigger spotlight on him. McCarron's nerves will be just fine.
The rest of the Bengals have been hardened for this. People point to last year's loss to the Colts in the wild card round as some sort of proof point to the Bengals' big game woes. Cincinnati had no shot. A.J. Green was out. Jermaine Gresham was out. Marvin Jones was out. Tyler Eifert was out. Vontaze Burfict didn't play. It doesn't fit a nice and tidy national narrative to list the Bengals' top three receiving options as being inactive for the biggest game of the season as a potential reason for the loss. But for as solid a role player as Rex Burkhead might be, the backup running back should not end up being the number two option in the passing game, as he was in the first half of that contest. You play the hand you're dealt. Unlike last year, Cincinnati has a pretty good hand this year.
The Steelers offense has been lights out most of the season, and Ben Roethlisberger is a Hall of Fame quarterback. This isn't up for debate. This isn't about them.
It's about the Bengals. At some point, the narrative changes. You get over the hill and you enforce your will. The Bengals have what might be considered the best offensive and defensive lines in all of football. They've been the better team at the line of scrimmage in just about every game they've played this season. We're looking at 40 degrees, rain, and wind on Saturday. If Hue Jackson calls this game like he's done most of the season, if McCarron protects the ball, and if Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill carry the load like they should, the Bengals should win at home on Saturday night.
Does past history matter? Maybe. The Raiders under John Madden got over it. The 2004 Red Sox found a way. LeBron James did, too. These things could be circumstantial or they could have a real impact on the psychology of the athlete, coach and clubhouse as a whole. Or it can be a bunch of hooey. Viewed in a silo, this team isn't the same one that played the Steelers ten years ago. It's not the same one that suited up versus the Colts twelve months back. This is the 2015 Cincinnati Bengals — a team I've seen defy the odds all season long — and a team that's ready for the next step.
Ten years after a former Bengals player shattered the knee of the city's most promising young athlete in decades, Cincinnati looks to reverse a doomed history on Saturday.
They can do it. They should do it. I'll be the one who says it. I think they will.
WILD CARD ROUND CHEAT SHEET QUESTION:
Okay. We might as well go there. Boomer Esiason was the winning quarterback the last time the Bengals won a playoff game. Which Houston Oiler was the losing quarterback that day?
Now, on to my wild card round picks.
Kansas City at Houston: If the Bengals have had a doomed playoff history, the Chiefs haven't been much better. If you go through the list of Chiefs playoff quarterbacks since Joe Montana (who led them to the AFC Championship Game in 1994), it's a list that's always had the lesser quarterback. Eight games in a row. Eight times they've been the lesser. Look at the matchups and see for yourself:
• 1993 AFC Championship Game: Joe Montana versus Jim Kelly. Winner: Kelly.
• 1994 Wild card Round Game: Joe Montana versus Dan Marino. Winner: Marino
• 1996 Divisional Round game: Steve Bono versus Jim Harbaugh. Winner: Harbaugh
• 1998 Wild card Round: Elvis Grbac versus John Elway. Winner: Elway
• 2004 Divisional Round: Trent Green versus Peyton Manning. Winner: Manning.
• 2007 Wild card Round: Trent Green versus Peyton Manning. Winner: Manning
• 2011 Wild card Round: Matt Cassel versus Joe Flacco. Winner: Flacco
• 2014 Wild card Round: Alex Smith versus Andrew Luck. Winner: Luck
This year, the Chiefs have the better quarterback. Alex Smith and Andy Reid — not exactly Montana and Walsh in big games — will overcome history this weekend, too.
The Pick: Chiefs 24, Texans 20
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The last time these teams played, it started in pregame warmups. Chippiness, trash talk, anger, hate. It's a football purist's dream matchup. Mike Tomlin's gang will come ready to play and I see this as the game of the weekend. I also see the Bengals finding a way. Expect some fireworks. I hope Phil Simms and Jim Nantz are ready for fisticuffs, expletives and business after the whistle. That's what we're getting. And for a game like this, with what's at stake, I'm more than okay with it.
The Pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 24 (OT)
Seattle at Minnesota: You don't want to hear about the weather. I know. You'll be on your couch eating wings. But I'll be there, in Minnesota on Sunday, and can tell you that the expected 1 degree — yes, 1 degree — plays a role in these games. Minnesota plays outdoors all year long, but Seattle isn't exactly coming from the tropics here. The 10 a.m. local time kickoff could play a role in adjusting for a lesser team, but the Seahawks are beyond that stuff. The last time these teams played, Seattle came into Minnesota and put a clinic on the Vikings. I've loved this Minnesota team since I was on hand for their Week 2 win over the Lions. A young, emerging defense. A balanced, turnover-free offense. An elite coach in Mike Zimmer. I think a far better effort than the first time they played is in store and hate picking against them. But until I see the Seahawks come out flat for a playoff game, I can't pick against them.
The Pick: Seahawks 27, Vikings 23
Green Bay at Washington: I did a video for FOXsports.com back in Week 8 in which I declated Kirk Cousins the best quarterback in the NFC East. I got clobbered. The responses were venomous. I thought I was going to have to hand in my credentials to NFL games moving forward. Well, whether I knew something or not, Cousins has proven that and more this season. Hell, I think he's had a better season than Aaron Rodgers this year. Look at his numbers since the "You like that!" game against the Buccaneers. Since that comeback win, Cousins has completed 72.4 percent of his passes, thrown 23 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions and has silenced critics. I know it's not cool to think the Redskins are a functioning franchise. I know it's easy to bash their owner, their coach, and their PR staff. And I know it's a prettier story for everyone if Aaron Rodgers gets it together and lights the 'Skins up on Sunday. But I've got the Redskins winning. Kirk Cousins and all.
The Pick: Redskins 34, Packers 24
Reader Email of the Week:
Peter, I don't know who else to send this to, so here it goes. I simulated a season on "Madden" before the year and the results were eerie, bizarre, and pretty cool. Cam Newton was the MVP. The Cowboys crapped the bed. The Redskins won the NFC East. And most bizarre, it had the Vikings winning the Super Bowl. The only playoff team to not make it in real life was the Colts and they were one game short. Dude, 11 of 12 teams were right! What do I do with this information?
Freddy T, Birmingham, Alabama
Freddy,
You book a flight to Las Vegas right now. Orbitz, Expedia, whatever. You walk up to any casino sports book, and you say, "Kind sir, I'd like to make a bet. A wager, if you will." You then proceed to put a somewhat notable amount of money on the Vikings to win the Super Bowl at 30-1 odds. You then go to the NFL shop online and go ahead and buy a Chad Greenway jersey for the Wildcard round, a Stephon Diggs jersey for the Divisional round, a throwback Randy Moss one for the NFC Championship Game, and a beautiful, sparkling new Anthony Barr one for the Super Bowl. You also purchase Teddy Bridgewater's infamous Pro Day glove and one of those Ragnar Vikings horn helmet/hat things. You wear these every weekend during the playoffs and on Fridays to work. Don't worry about your boss. He can worry about his own life. You do you. You then call up Paul Allen's radio show on KFAN every day, tell Paul you're my friend, that you live in Alabama, and that you're riding this "Madden" simulation thing. He'll love it. It'll become a thing. Go all in. It's your only option. It's not often you're gifted with something like this, Freddy. We aren't given almanacs like Biff in "Back to the Future Part II." You've got the ring, Frodo. You've got to roll with it. To do anything less would be criminal.
CHEAT SHEET TRIVIA ANSWER:
Cody Carlson went 16 for 33 and threw an interception in a 41-14 loss to the Bengals in the first round of the 1991 playoffs.
