Buffalo Bills

Dolphins at Bills: Game preview, odds, prediction

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 10:08 p.m. ET

Fansided, James Dudko/Fansided

Check out our preview, odds and prediction for Week 16’s AFC East clash between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills at New Era Field.

The Miami Dolphins control the sixth seed in the AFC playoff race, but are underdogs for their game against the Buffalo Bills in Week 16. These two AFC East rivals meet at Buffalo’s New Era Field on Christmas Eve, but it’s the Dolphins who need the win more.

The Bills’ playoff hopes are already gone, but they are still favored by 3.5 on the money line, according to Odds Shark. Interestingly, the over/under has opened at 44, although the under seems like a good bet between two teams with question marks on offense.

The Dolphins have issues under center since Ryan Tannehill went down with a serious knee injury against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14. Matt Moore replaced Tannehill last week and guided Miami to a big road win over another AFC East foe, the New York Jets.

But it was a win that owed more to big plays on defense and special teams than effective offense. Still, Moore is an experienced gamer surrounded by a solid supporting cast.

His ensemble players include quality wide receivers DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry. Yet the pass-catcher to watch might be tight end Dion Sims.

A real hidden gem, Sims has been prolific in the red zone recently. In fact, he’s snagged three touchdown catches in his last two games.

There’s a touch of NFL great Ben Coates about Sims. Specifically, his imposing size, wide catch radius and deceptive quickness. Sims should thrive this week against inconsistent Buffalo inside linebackers Preston and Zach Brown.

Of course, the Dolphins will really hope to get their running game going in upstate New York. This Bills D’ allowed Miami running back Jay Ajayi to rush for 214 yards when these teams met in Week 7.

It wasn’t the last time the Bills yielded a double century of yards on the ground this season. Le’Veon Bell amassed 236 when the Pittsburgh Steelers won in Buffalo two weeks ago.

The Bills are hoping defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus will make a difference against Ajayi this time, per Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News.

Fortunately for the Bills, Ajayi has been inconsistent lately. It hasn’t helped that center Mike Pouncey has remained on the shelf. The dominant pivotman recently ruled out needing knee surgery but will still miss this week, per Mark E. Ortega of the league’s official site.

If the Dolphins can’t establish Ajayi, Moore will be left at the mercy of a swarming Buffalo pass rush. The Bills have logged 38 sacks, with versatile journeyman Lorenzo Alexander accounting for 11.5

Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan would be wise to move Alexander around this week to keep him away from left tackle Branden Albert and rookie left guard Laremy Tunsil.

Ryan’s bigger concern will be how his own offense holds up against Miami’s marauding front four. D-tackle Ndamukong Suh has been a game-wrecking double-team magnet in recent weeks. Meanwhile, rush end Cameron Wake is still effective at 34.

The destructive pair were recently voted to the Pro Bowl, according to Omar Kelly of the Sun-Sentinel. Wake can keep Bills’ dual-threat quarterback Tyrod Taylor in the pocket, while Suh must send running back LeSean McCoy into pursuit led by swift-footed linebacker Kiko Alonso.

The Bills will be itching to play spoiler, but the Dolphins have the momentum and motivation to deliver on the road.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Bills 20