National Football League

If Tua Tagovailoa demands Joe Burrow money, the Dolphins are in trouble

Updated Feb. 16, 2024 5:45 p.m. ET

Just about every offseason, a quarterback breaks the record for contract value. That’s because just about every offseason, the salary cap goes up. So, yes, with the salary cap rising in 2024, some lucky QB is about to break some records off the field.

I just don’t think it should be Tua Tagovailoa.

He absolutely deserves to get paid. But a contract of that magnitude won’t work for anyone involved. Not for the Miami Dolphins, who are already projected to be $51 million over the salary cap. And not for Tagovailoa, who might find he needs the expensive supporting cast that’s currently around him.

During the preamble to the Super Bowl, NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo suggested that Tagovailoa might ask for money in the range of Joe Burrow, whose contract has the largest average annual value in the NFL at $55 million per year.

"Sounds like both sides would like this to get done at some point in the spring — not hang over training camp or the regular season," Garafolo said. "But there’s the matter of the business. And Tagovailoa set career highs in yards, completion percentage, touchdown passes. So, he can make a case to be at or above Joe Burrow’s $55 million a year, which is at the top of the market. So, it may not be so easy to get it done."

If Tua asks for more money than Burrow, it might just be impossible to get a contract done.

The Dolphins need to back away from that situation as gracefully as possible. And they have to do so without triggering Tagovailoa's backup-warning. These two parties have to work together for at least the 2024 season when the quarterback will be playing on his fifth-year option. If they don’t come to an extension this offseason, the regular season might get a little awkward and tense.

Because the truth is that Tua probably needs Miami to be successful. I don't think he's the kind of QB that many offenses can plug in and get elite play.

The Dolphins and Tagovailoa are looking at a Rubicon. Every team has to conduct a full cost-benefit analysis before committing big money to a veteran signal-caller. It’s a question of, (a) how much can we pay this QB, (b) how much can he compensate for what his salary will take from the rest of the team, and finally, (c) what are the alternative options at the position?

If Tua gets a mega contract, it might make life difficult for the Dolphins to retain both their top receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It might make their life difficult in holding together the offensive line that powered such an impressive run game, even if coach Mike McDaniel found himself neglecting it in favor of the passing game.

If Tua gets a mega contract, he needs to reach new heights in December and January, and perhaps even February. Burrow again is a fair comp. Both QBs have been working with supreme skill players and neither is exceptionally gifted physically. The biggest difference between them is how Burrow has performed late in the season.

Because the Dolphins currently have no bigger problem than their end-of-season collapses, which have happened over the last two years. They finished 1-6 in 2022 (including the playoffs) and 2-4 (also including playoffs) at the end of 2023. It’s fun to be the flashy offensive team that comes out of the gate firing. But the name of the game is winning Super Bowls. After those unimpressive finishes, it's impossible to project the Dolphins as legit contenders for 2024.

If they’re going to invest in Tagovailoa, he needs to be the biggest part of the solution. Right now, he doesn’t look like a proficient QB — especially not when compared to Burrow in December/January and in the playoffs.

When it comes to Tua’s body of work, his season looks really impressive: 69.3 completion percentage, 4,624 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He even has some advanced statistics showing that he’s a clutch performer in gotta-have-it situations. And there were situations where his defense let him down in a big way in 2023.

While Tua is a good QB, we simply have not seen much in the way of greatness out of him. We haven’t seen a QB who can will his team to victory when it matters most. Not against the two-time defending champion Chiefs. Not against contenders like the Bills, Ravens and 49ers late in the past two seasons.

But if Tua is willing to work with the Dolphins both in terms of average annual value and cap hit for 2024, then Miami and their quarterback could find a middle ground.

So, what’s fair?

Even the Justin Herbert contract looks like one the Chargers might regret given their current cap restraints and bubble prospects to make the playoffs in 2024. I wonder if the Dolphins might look at Dak Prescott’s deal at $40 million and start there. It would probably be cheap for Tua’s taste. But with that deal, the Cowboys have been able to build a complete team around a QB who is — frankly — as limited as Tua. Both Dak and Tua have tremendous command of their offenses and of the pocket. But that’s where their skills end. They will likely forever need strong supporting casts.

Now, that’s not how the Dolphins will sell such an offer to Tagovailoa. They’ll probably explain that, by making a sacrifice for the team, he can get more weapons and preserve the roster in its current form. If he’s taking something in the range of $45 million per year, the team can backload the deal (pushing the bulk of the money into future years) and Tua’s cap hit in 2024 could end up being on the smaller side, even if he gets a massive signing bonus (pro-rated over the length of the deal). In turn, the deal might look bigger than it actually is.

That’s a team-friendly situation, of course. A Burrow-type contract is a player-friendly situation. My sense is that the two sides will have to meet in the middle, getting Tua a big enough sum to where he’s near the top of the market but also not destroying the team’s cap space for years to come. It’ll be a fine line to manage for general manager Chris Grier. And I’m not sure that I envy him. Because when looking at Tua, the refrain will be, can you really do any better if you let him go? And the answer is, probably not. It’s hard to find a Tua — let alone a Josh Allen or even a Patrick Mahomes.

No one wants to settle, but I think that’s what both sides need to do here. Miami needs to settle for a QB who functions at a high level in its offense, even if he does not singularly elevate it. Tua needs to settle for a contract that allows Miami's front office to build a roster that covers for his limitations. It's the only way they can potentially win together.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.