National Football League

NFL odds Week 15: Why the Eagles will cover against the WFT (and more)

Updated Dec. 18, 2021 1:36 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Here is a peek behind the curtain of my weekly process during NFL gambling season:

Early in the week is a deep dive into what went down on Sunday. I go beyond the box score and plunge into potential injuries to important players. By Tuesday, it is evident which teams have been downgraded (or upgraded) in the market and what lines have shifted significantly from the look-ahead lines. By Wednesday, you start to see reports of who is and isn't practicing.

Now by this point, I've usually staked out at least a few positions, which may or may not include number grabbing on teams around key numbers (+7.5 before it hits 7; -2.5 before it hits 3).

Thursday is when practice reports really begin to matter, and Friday is moving day when bet limits go up. But, this week? Good luck.

Once the COVID news started to hit Monday, you knew this was going to be a wacky week as games were pulled off the board and COVID-19 lists swelled to over a dozen for some very unlucky teams (Browns, Rams, Washington).

I did bet on some games earlier this week, which we'll get to shortly, but one thing is clear, this madness will continue into the weekend. What makes things even more confusing is the potential for players already on the COVID-19 list to come off of it Saturday and be eligible to play.

Now that we got that out of the way, it's time for our regularly scheduled program. Let's jump into my best bets, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Washington Football Team @ Philadelphia Eagles (7 p.m. ET Tuesday, FOX)

This line was Philly -2.5 on the look ahead, and then it reopened at -4 Monday. The number was quickly bet up based on the injuries to quarterback Taylor Heinicke and concussion to wide receiver Terry McLaurin.

I took the Eagles at that point, as they were coming off a bye, facing a familiar opponent and said opponent was coming off a tough divisional loss to Dallas. I wasn't even sure who was going to start at QB, Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew — they split practice reps this week — but I knew I'd be on the Eagles.

Then the news for Washington got worse, seemingly by the hour — 95% of their defensive line on the COVID-19 list; both Heinicke and QB Kyle Allen were on it too; they were down to their fifth-string center — and the number ballooned up.

Here's the oddity: What if Washington gets most of its guys back off the COVID-19 list after the game gets pushed to Monday or Tuesday? And you took a lousy number like Phily -11? Then you're in real trouble as the line would drift to under a touchdown.

It's a challenging game to bet, but I feel good about anything for the Eagles under double-digits. They're going to run the ball all over Washington. And the WFT depleted offensive line, which already got smacked around last week, will face the same fate this week.

I'm also one of 25 left in Survivor (in a pool of 2,468), and the best option I have left is Philadelphia. I'm fortunate with what's going on in Washington, and now I'm just hoping the game isn't canceled because I don't have a great backup (Pittsburgh or Jacksonville).

PICK: Eagles (-5.5 FOX Bet) to win by more than 5.5 points

Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

The Ravens are borderline destitute defensively, especially with injuries in the secondary and now on the defensive line (monitor Calais Campbell).

Yes, the Packers didn't look sharp defensively vs. rookie Justin Fields and their special teams are a mess. The Packers rank dead last in special teams, per Football Outsiders, while the Ravens rank first. Green Bay's kicker, Mason Crosby, has more field goal misses than any kicker in the NFL (nine). Baltimore has an elite kicker and punter and is strong in the return game. Special teams are the biggest (only?) edge the Ravens have in this game.

With that said, this bet is mostly about Lamar Jackson being less than 100% due to the ankle injury. And, there's a good chance he isn't playing at all, as the Baltimore signal-caller hasn't practiced all week.

The Ravens are saying all the right things, but their actions speak otherwise: They signed quarterback Josh Johnson off the Jets practice squad and Tyler Huntley is taking QB1 snaps at practice.

Yes, Baltimore's backup Huntley has played well (and covered!) both games he's played in this season. But there are now two games of tape on him, and the Packers just faced a running quarterback in Fields, so his athleticism — Lamar lite — shouldn't catch Green Bay off guard.

Baltimore has a massive game next week against the reeling Bengals. The Ravens lost the earlier meeting against Cincinnati, and that game will carry enormous playoff ramifications in the AFC. So, my guess here is that Lamar sits, and the Packers roll.

PICK: Packers (-6.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6.5 points

Three-team, 7.5-point Teaser at FOX Bet

Miami Dolphins -9.5 to -2

Teasers in this space have been on a ridiculous tear. Yes, the Dolphins will be on everyone's teaser card but as long as you can get through the 7 and the 3, Miami is a strong side.

The Jaylen Waddle COVID news is not ideal, but Tua Tagovailoa still has plenty of weapons offensively, and this is more a play against the Jets, anyway.

Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson struggles to find anyone open without his top two receivers, and the offensive line play continues to be awful. The Dolphins blitz early and often, which is an all-around recipe for disaster for the rookie signal-caller.

Dallas Cowboys -10.5 to -3

We identified the Cowboys early as a bet-on team, and at 10-3 ATS, they're second-best in the NFL at covering the number.

Now that the defense is healthy, you're seeing may be the best pass-rushing trio in the league with Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Randy Gregory. Their pressure will help an overrated secondary.

The New York Giants are going nowhere fast, and Mike Glennon couldn't move the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers until garbage time. The Cowboys will win, but if divisional matchups strike fear into your wallet, tease the game to a field goal.

San Francisco 49ers -9.5 to -2

I looked long and hard at Minnesota or Seattle for this final spot, and the Tampa line remains in consideration if it gets to 10.5. But I settled on San Francisco under a field goal for a couple of reasons.

Early in the season, big-money professional gamblers loved the Eagles, and now they have pivoted to the 49ers in recent weeks. The 49ers struggled against good teams early (Packers, healthy Seahawks, Cardinals) but have rebounded against average and below-average teams in recent weeks.

The Falcons are in the playoff mix but have been pummeled this season when they step up in class against Super Bowl contenders.

The big concern for San Francisco is they are coming off an overtime game, and their injury report had five starters out of practice Thursday, including their two best linebackers. These injuries could be a big problem against rookie TE Kyle Pitts.

But, the advanced stats love the 49ers — they're eighth overall in DVOA and sixth in net yards per play — so I'm sticking to my numbers.

JMAC's Teaser

Dolphins -2.5
Cowboys -3
49ers -2

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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