National Football League

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds: How to bet Chargers-Jaguars

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 3:34 p.m. ET

On a five-game winning streak, the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) will take on the Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) in the NFL's Super Wild Card Weekend on Saturday.

The Chargers lost star receiver Mike Williams to a back injury in the Week 18 loss against the Denver Broncos after coach Brandon Staley opted to play most of his starters. Staley said this week that Williams suffered a contusion but expects him to play against the Jaguars.

The game will be a battle between Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars and Justin Herbert of the Chargers, two of the best young quarterbacks.

Los Angeles leads the all-time series 9-4, but the Jaguars won on Sept. 25, 38-10.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Chargers-Jaguars game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insight and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

Trevor Lawrence makes playoff debut vs. Chargers in Super Wild Card Weekend

Which quarterback is the better prospect to build a future around, Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert?

Chargers at Jaguars (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC)

Point spread: Chargers -2.5 (Chargers favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Jaguars cover)
Moneyline: Chargers -138 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.25 total); Jaguars +110 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 47.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

Rematch of a Week 3 game that should have zero bearing on how you bet this one. Yes, Jacksonville won 38-10 at SoFI Stadium. But the spot was horrible for the Chargers as they were coming off a grueling loss to the rival Chiefs, and QB Justin Herbert was nursing injured ribs and played terribly.

Possession receiver Keenan Allen did not play. During the game, the Chargers lost star tackle Rashawn Slater and edge rusher Joey Bosa, and the team was rattled. They came out of halftime looking crestfallen and were blown out in the second half.

Jacksonville’s 30th-ranked pass defense will struggle to contain Justin Herbert, as this is a huge step-up in class from the QBs they’ve faced in the last six games.

If you’re looking at props, Keenan Allen might be your guy. Jacksonville’s slot corner is Tre Herndon, who was undrafted and graded out as 101st out of 104 corners at the position.

PICK: Chargers pick’em

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

Over the last five weeks of the NFL season, no team blitzed more on early downs than the Chargers.

But they still recorded pressure at a below-average rate.

That could cause problems for their defense.

On early downs when blitzed but not pressured over the second half of the season, Lawrence is 40-of-47 for 9.5 YPA, +0.55 EPA/att and 60% success.

All of these rank top-10 in the NFL, with several ranking top three.

So the Jaguars could have success passing the ball on early downs.

They should also have success running the ball, as the Chargers have the NFL’s stone-worst run defense on early downs.

They are allowing +0.05 EPA/att, 5.5 YPC and 43% success to early-down RB runs.

Those rank 32nd, 32nd and 31st, respectively.

And over the second half of the season, they’ve gotten no better.

They still rank bottom five in every one of these metrics over the second half of the year.

Combining passing and rushing, this year, the Chargers defense ranks 31st in yards per play allowed on early downs.

And the Jaguars offense ranks sixth in EPA/play on early downs.

But they’ve improved since Trevor Lawrence has had more time to work with Doug Pederson.

Last year, under Urban Meyer, Trevor Lawrence ranked bottom-10 in literally every single stable QB metric, including passing without pressure, passing inside the pocket, passing without play action on early downs, passing without moving, etc.

Lawrence ranked 34th in EPA/att last year.

This year, Lawrence started off slowly under Pederson. Over the first half of the year, he ranked 23rd in YPA, 14th in EPA/att and 13th in success rate.

But since Week 9, Lawrence ranks top-10 in all three metrics, including second in EPA/att, immediately ahead of Patrick Mahomes.

I think the Jaguars will give the Chargers everything they can handle and lean the Over.

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