National Football League

Patriots-Bills will have massive butterfly effect on 2024 offseason

Published Dec. 28, 2023 1:23 p.m. ET

Bill Belichick has rarely compared other quarterbacks to Tom Brady.

But Belichick invoked Brady this week when discussing Josh Allen. And it set the table for a Patriots-Bills game that might change the complexion of the NFL.

Maybe things ended badly between Brady and Belichick, but the New England coach fully respects Brady's greatness and, in turn, has rejected comparisons. But Belichick let one sneak into his Wednesday press conference in preparation for the team's Week 17 matchup against the Bills.

Belichick was asked about Allen's development. In year three, back in 2020, the quarterback surged to an elite level — and there was some doubt about whether his playing style was sustainable and whether he'd remain elite.

"Just kind of like Brady," Belichick said. "Once Brady got to a certain point there in 2003, that's pretty much the way it was the rest of his career. It wasn't really like that in 2002. It wasn't like that in 2001. It certainly wasn't like that in 2000. Once he got to a certain point there about the midseason of the 2003 season and then the playoffs, from then on his level of performance and play and consistency was at the very top of the league.

"Different style of play. Once those quarterbacks, usually when they get to that point, they're able to sustain it. Sometimes you just don't know what the growth pattern is going to be. It doesn't really matter where [Allen] was or where he is right now. He's pretty good. Real good."

Allen has recently been as good against Belichick's defense as any quarterback. His touchdown total of 2.4 per game is the fourth-most all time among QBs against Belichick's Patriots.

In the past six games going back to the beginning of 2021, Allen and the Bills are 4-2 against the Patriots. But Allen's performance against New England hit a turning point in the second matchup of 2020, when he exploded for 320 passing yards and four passing touchdowns in the Bills' 38-9 drubbing of the Patriots.

It hasn't been easy for Belichick to beat Allen.

Belichick has his defense playing at an impressive level, even if the offense has been — until the past few weeks — a true abomination. And so Belichick, who is making his case for employment to the Patriots owners (and likely the other 31 team owners), would gain a great deal of coaching capital if he could beat the Bills not once but twice in one season. It would be a big deal for Belichick to sweep the Bills in a year when that might actually be New England's most impressive accomplishment.

Belichick could also do a number on Buffalo's playoff chances.

If they win, the Bills have a 97% chance of making the playoffs.

If they lose, the Bills have a 41% chance.

"If I'm in the New England Patriots locker room, I'm looking to ruin their season. An opponent's playoff hopes on the line — a division rival," Allen told reporters Wednesday.

Yup. Exactly right.

The effects of this game could cascade into the postseason — and then the offseason.

Belichick actually has a fair amount of control over Buffalo's future. With a Patriots win, he could begin the end of the Bills' season. Belichick could kill Allen's MVP chances. Belichick could then cast further doubt on Bills coach Sean McDermott's job status. If the Patriots upset the Bills and then Buffalo misses the playoffs, McDermott would be on the hot seat.

If McDermott got fired, Belichick might even be a compelling candidate to take over in Buffalo.

Best landing spot for Patriots HC Bill Belichick

Whether Belichick is the replacement or not, McDermott will be in jeopardy if the Bills miss the playoffs. And as I've shown, a loss would certainly lessen their odds of getting in.

And on the flipside, the Patriots coach is sitting in a tenuous situation of his own.

Belichick is at even greater risk of losing his job than McDermott is. Much greater.

On Sunday, Belichick might be wearing The Patriots Hoodie for the penultimate time on an NFL field. No doubt his career will continue into 2024. It's entirely unclear if he'll be with the Patriots, however. Every game carries some extra motivation — even though, practically speaking, every win carries the Patriots further away from the top of the draft board and, therefore, away from Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, the top QB prospects.

Technically, a Bills win is a win for everyone — except Belichick (and maybe Bailey Zappe).

It's probably foolish to think an upset over the Bills could save Belichick's job. It would probably be too little too late. But it wouldn't hurt Belichick's case to the Kraft family. And it wouldn't hurt his case to other suitors, if the situation arises.

So can the Patriots do it? Are they capable?

The short answer is, yes. Why? Well, the Patriots beat the Bills once this season.

It's more of a question of whether the Bills are capable.

Buffalo has been completely inconsistent in 2023. The Bills nearly lost to the Chargers last week after beating some of the NFL's best in consecutive weeks (Cowboys and Chiefs). It's starting to look like — maybe — offensive coordinator Joe Brady has brought them a little more consistency in the wins-losses column. They're 4-1 since replacing Ken Dorsey with Brady. (But I issue that statement with tremendous uncertainty, because, like I said, we can say very little for certain about this Bills team.)

We have yet to see what Brady cooks against Belichick. That might just be another job on the line, with Brady's title currently reading "interim offensive coordinator." He will want to remove "interim" this offseason. A win against Belichick to essentially lock up a playoff berth? An offensive coordinator that can make.

Fittingly, the team's recent game plans have been perfect in preparing them for Belichick. Specifically, the Bills have deemphasized receiver Stefon Diggs, who has long been the Alpha and Omega of the game plan. So for Belichick, whose defensive game plans start — every week — with taking away the best player, that should make life simpler for Buffalo. The Bills have already done that themselves. They are getting more players involved and that has made a big difference in beating teams, even when Diggs isn't having a huge game. The Bills haven't been consistent in who they get to step up, but they have gotten someone new to step up each week, from Gabe Davis to Khalil Shakir to Dalton Kincaid.

It's likely Allen, who has recently been Belichick's kryptonite, could deliver one of the final blows to Belichick's chances of retaining his job as the Patriots' head coach. But no matter the result, this game will go a long way in shaping the head coaching landscape for 2024.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.