Benardrick McKinney

Raiders at Texans: Picks, predictions and odds

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 4:09 p.m. ET

Fansided, James Dudko/Fansided

Prediction, odds and picks for the AFC Wild Card playoff game between the Oakland Raiders and Houston Texans at NRG Stadium.

The Houston Texans merit their status as favorites for their AFC Wild Card playoff game at NRG Stadium on Saturday. Not only will the AFC South champs be on home soil at the venue for Super Bowl 51, they’ll also be up against a third-string quarterback in rookie Connor Cook.

It’s no wonder OddsShark has the Texans tipped to win by three. However, you shouldn’t expect these teams to hit the over on 36.5. Not when both have obvious issues under center.

Cook is replacing injured duo Derek Carr and Matt McGloin, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport:

#Raiders are going forward with the expectation that QB Connor Cook starts vs. #Texans, sources say. Matt McGloin not believed to be ready.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 3, 2017

It’s going to be a more than tricky debut for the 2016 fourth-round pick. Especially against a unit as talented as Houston’s defense.

But Cook won’t be the only passer to struggle. Not with free-agency bust Brock Osweiler returning to the starting lineup for the Texans, per Rapoport, via Conor Orr of the league’s official site.

Houston head coach Bill O’Brien will surely rue the injury Tom Savage suffered in Week 17, given how Osweiler has wilted under the spotlight for most of this season.

Giving big Brock another chance is a risk, even if the Raiders have been weak defensively. The Silver and Black finished the season 26th in points allowed, 24th against the pass and 23rd in rushing defense.

It’s the meager ranking against the run that should really interest O’Brien and his offensive staff. They should plan to unleash a heavy dose of Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue.

The duo offer contrasting styles, with Miller more boom or bust, while Blue can grind between the tackles. Keeping the ball on the ground will not only control the clock, it will also keep Osweiler free from Oakland’s feared pass-rushers, specifically Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin.

Expect Miller and Blue to combine for triple digits on the ground and put the pressure on Cook to try and win the game.

Cook will already be under enough pressure against the NFL‘s No. 1-ranked defense. The Texans detonate offenses thanks to an embarrassment of riches along the front seven.

Even without the injured J.J. Watt, Houston can call on Jadeveon Clowney, Benardrick McKinney, Brian Cushing, Vince Wilfork and Whitney Mercilus.

This group is put to creative use by Romeo Crennel, one of the craftiest defensive minds in football. The 69-year-old can design combinations of pressure, coverage and disguise even the most seasoned quarterback has never seen before, let along a rookie making his debut.

Crennel learned his trade from time spent with Bill Parcells and New England Patriots honcho Bill Belichick. It means he likes a multiple-front scheme with moving parts. Fortunately, Crennel has the perfect parts for his system.

McKinney is a big-bodied bruiser who is more versatile than you think at middle linebacker. His ability to also blitz from the outside makes McKinney reminiscent of former New York Giants ace Pepper Johnson, a player Crennel coached.

Oct 30, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney (55) before the game against the Detroit Lions at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Yet the most intriguing player might be Mercilus. He looked like a dream fit for then-coordinator Wade Phillips’ blitz-crazed 5-2 front when he was drafted in the first round in 2012.

However, Mercilus has actually displayed a more complete skill-set, one akin to Crennel’s hybrid 3-4. His matchup with outstanding Raiders left tackle Donald Penn could decide this game.

Or course, Oakland head coach Jack Del Rio will likely try to ease Cook’s burden by calling running back Latavius Murray’s number early and often. It’s why man mountain in the middle Wilfork will be so important for the hosts.

The 35-year-old nose tackle recently revealed he’s considering retirement at the end of the season, according to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle: “It’s something I’ve been thinking about. It’s a possibility. I still love this game. One of the hardest pills to swallow is when you leave something you love.”

If he goes through with it, Wilfork’s last game could well be against old team the Patriots in New England in the Divisional Round. First though, Wilfork will have to shut down Murray’s inside running. It will require winning some tough matchups against a dominant Oakland interior O-line.

Center Rodney Hudson and guard Gabe Jackson usually boss the middle. Fortunately, Crennel can keep Wilfork fresh by rotating in beefy rookie D.J. Reader. Murray is unlikely to get going against this front seven.

If he can’t, the Texans will be free to pile the pressure on Cooke, something Clowney is already keen to do, per Aaron Wilson of the Chronicle: “That’s great, I hope we blitz him all game. We just have to put a lot of pressure on him, make him throw some bad balls, force some turnovers and try to get our offense in good field position.”

Both defenses will feast on struggling quarterbacks. The edge goes to Houston, though, thanks to the ability of their loaded unit to truly dominate a game.

Pick: Texans 21, Raiders 13