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James Van Riemsdyk Is Untouchable; the Rebuild Is Over
James Van Riemsdyk is 26, and he’s going to need a new contract after next season. The story goes that they should trade him now while they continue their rebuild.
I got news for you: The Rebuild Is Over.
This doesn’t mean that the Leafs are now a cup contender, or that the roster they have is set. It means that the time to cash in players for futures is past.
The Leafs have a goalie, a young defenseman and three forwards who they will build around. (Andersen, Reilly, Matthews, Marner and Nylander). There is a salary cap in the NHL, and you can’t build an all-star team – so pretty much everything else they do is going to be to add complimentary pieces to this foundation.
As far as complimentary pieces go, Van Riemsdyk is pretty much the best you could hope for. He’s elite offensively, and doesn’t need to play defense all that well because he isn’t you’re best player and can be sheltered when necessary.
Add in Kadri, Gardiner, Komarov, Brown, Bozak, and (I guess) Martin, and you have 12 of the 20 players you will need. (One of which is a back-up goalie, so it’s basically 12/19).
To get the remaining players, you can trade one of your 11 (Bozak seems most likely, but he’s pretty good on a 3rd line) or some of Hymen, Shoshnikov, Carrick, Zaitsev, Kapanen, Leipsic, etc. They can also work their way into becoming permanent fixtures, or another prospect can excel.
So while there is building to be done….at this point you pretty much have to remove the “re” prefix.
JVR Has to Stay
This brings me back to Van Riemsdyk. In the NHL, you need a balance of players at all ages to compete. Van Riemsdyk is only 26, and he’s an amazing player – among players who’ve played 400 minutes so far this year (5v5) he’s 6th in the NHL in points/60, just behind Nikita Kucherov, and ahead of McDavid and Malkin.
One of the things that makes the Leafs so dangerous is that they can put out a first line quality player on all three of their top lines. (Matthews, Marner, JVR, Nylander, Kadri).
Despite his reputation as a bad defensive player, the Leafs get more shot-attempts when he’s on the ice then they allow. By all measures, he is a very, very effective player. Plus, his 12 even strength goals so far this year rank him third in the NHL (tie).
Trading F for D Doesn’t Bring Value
Yes, he’s going to demand a big contract. And yes, it may not be possible to sign him to that contract because all the rookies the Leafs have are eventually going to demand big money.
The thing is though, JVR might want to win on the team he grew up on. He might not need to get Kessel money. And, even if he does, it might be worth signing him and trading him down the road.
Yes, his value will never be higher than it is now, but what are you going to get for him? The only way it makes sense to trade him, is if they got back someone who can play on the top defensive pairing, and even then, unless you’re getting Hampus Lindholm or Ekman-Larsson (which you’re not) it’s probably not a great move.
JVR is no Taylor Hall, and getting back the equivalent of Adam Larsson isn’t going to make the Leafs any better than they are now. Part of what makes them so good right now is that if a team puts their best defensive players out against the Matthews line, then either JVR or Kadri gets to face the 3rd worst defensive line, and, as you’ve seen so far this year, that’s how the Leafs win.
Best Way to Proceed
The Best way for the Leafs to proceed is to keep and re-sign Van Riemsdyk. In order to upgrade their defense, they should trade first-round picks and prospects.
Yeah, I know it sounds antithetical, but you have to remember this is a salary cap world. The best time the Leafs will ever have to win the Cup is this year, next year, and the year after when Matthews, Marner and Nylander are all disgustingly cheap.
The best thing they can do is stock-pile their team in order to make runs in each of the next three play-off series – exactly as Chicago did when they won their first Cup.
It seems to me that people talking about trading JVR and continuing to build for the future are thinking about the team as if there is no salary cap. When Auston Matthews makes $9+ million dollars per season, there is not going to be room stack the team – but there is now.
For that reason, JVR is untouchable. He cannot be traded.
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