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2016 Boston Red Sox Preview, Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep
The Red Sox ranked top six in MLB in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage last season, but the pitching staff allowed opposing hitters to carry a .264 average, sixth-worst, along with a staff ERA 30 points higher than the American League average (4.31). After winning 97 games in 2013, the Red Sox have failed to win 80 games the last two seasons.
ALSO SEE: TEAM PREVIEWS ARCHIVE
In case you missed my American League “Did You Know” notes, here are the Red Sox tidbits:
- Only three players posted 18 or more homers, 90 or more runs scored and 21 or more steals: Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock
- Xander Bogaerts 196 hits were the most by a shortstop since 2012 (Jeter) and 35 more than the next closest player (Eric Aybar – 161)
- Hanley Ramirez will gain first base eligibility in 2016 after 10 games played
- Eduardo Rodriguez picked up 13 quality starts in 21 opportunities (3.85 ERA / 7.25 K/9)
- David Price career numbers at Fenway Park 6-1 (11 starts) with 1.95 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 74 IP
Key Additions – David Price, SP, Craig Kimbrel, RP
Key Losses – Wade Miley, SP, Garin Cecchini, 3B
Projected Lineups
1. Mookie Betts
2. Dustin Pedroia
3. Xander Bogaerts
4. David Ortiz
5. Hanley Ramirez
6. Pablo Sandoval
7. Rusney Castillo
8. Blake Swihart
9. Jackie Bradley Jr.
Betts’ 12.5 percent strikeout rate was second-best among MLB position players 23 years old or younger (Wilmer Flores 12.4 percent) … legitimate candidate for 20 HR / 20 SB in 2016 … only four players accomplished that in 2015 … Pedroia ranks 2B-10 in our first iteration of 2016 fantasy baseball rankings … missed 69 games in 2015 … averaged 21 SB 2011-2013, but only eight swipes the last two seasons combined … palatable batting average and strong OBP expected … Bogaerts carried a .372 BABIP and .320 BA after hitting .240 in 2014 … still worthy of SS-3 preliminary ranking … David Ortiz DH-only … 30-or-more homers past and 103-or-more last three seasons … Hanley Ramirez has averaged 106 games played last three seasons … in 105 games played in 2015, HanRam posted career-low .257 BABIP … so don’t worry about .249 batting average as it’ll bounce back … how the mighty have fallen, Sandoval – he of 23 HR in 2011 – is ranked 3B-21 … for a positive, Panda Bear’s .270 BABIP in 2015 was 37 points off career norm … Rusney Castillo owned HIGHEST groundball rate in MLB (250 min. PA) and has yet to pay a return on his $72.5 million deal … once Christian Vazquez returns from injury (Tommy John), Blake Swihart will fall back into a platoon behind the plate … Jackie Bradley is the guy in the PG-13 movie I’m really hoping makes it happen (h/t Swingers) … but in order for that to happen his 27.1 K-percentage needs to improve … Bradley’s stock was highest during 2013 spring training
Projected Rotations
1. David Price
2. Clay Buchholz
3. Rick Porcello
4. Eduardo Rodriguez
5. Joe Kelly
Price’s three-year split stats include 21-14 and 22-11 pre-and-post All-Star break records, respectively. Not bad … Buchholz always intrigues and lets down … could be an interesting back-end fantasy SP option, but to expect high innings count would be unwise due to injury history … Porcello’s xFIP was a run less than his 2015 ERA … when combined with 7.00 K/9 potential, I’m interested in later rounds … Joe Kelly’s pre-All-Star ERA 5.67 compared to an 8-1 record in the second half with a 3.77 ERA
Top Prospects
Yoan Moncada, IF – the 20-year-old future 2B/OF stole 49 bases with .380 OBP and eight homers in 81 Single-A games … no guarantees he reaches the bigs in 2016 and is scheduled to start season at High-A … for more on Moncada, this Boston Globe feature is a solid overview
Henry Owens, SP – got an unexpected 11-game cup of coffee in 2015 … 4-4 record with a 5.01 xFIP in 11 starts … but the 6-foot-6, 220 pound hurler should have little issues keeping pace with a strong K/9 in MLB once he gets a 25-plus starts in a season … however, the 23-year-old remains on the outside looking in on the 2016 starting rotation for now
