Anthony Rizzo

2016 Chicago Cubs Preview, Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:59 p.m. ET

Ryan Fowler

From the curse (of the Billy Goat) to the purse (of the Cubs front office). A combination of a rich farm system, Theo Epstein’s brain trust and dollars and cents, the Cubs are the favorite to win the World Series in 2016 (Bovada). A season ago, when they won 97 games to finish in third place in the Central, the Cubbies ranked 16th in runs scored (first in strikeouts per game by a wide margin) and the third best staff ERA 3.36 along with the best opposing offense batting average – a measly .233.

Home or away, before the All-Star break or after, the Cubs’ rotation was a huge reason behind the team’s success in 2015 despite the offense snagging so much of the attention.

ALSO SEE: TEAM PREVIEWS ARCHIVE

In case you missed my National League Did You Know fantasy baseball notes on the Cubs, here ya go:

- I’m a fan of Kyle Schwarber and the power he brings to the table, but to bring him down to Earth, his 67.8 contact percentage in 2015 ranked 36th out of 37 catchers with a minimum of 270 plate appearances last season. His strikeout rate – 28.2 percent – was fourth-highest among catchers.

- I’m a fan of Kris Bryant and the power he brings to the table. He struck out 98 times after the All-Star break – tied for second-most in MLB.

- Anthony Rizzo stole 17 bases in 2015. At no point before last season, in his Major/Minor league career, had he swiped more than seven bases in a season.

- Jake Arrieta’s K/9 rate has jumped two strikeouts (9.28 in 2015) and has shaved two runs off his ERA (2.61 xFIP in 2015) since 2013.

- Hector Rodon converted 30 of 34 saves in 2015

Key Additions: Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, John Lackey, Adam Warren

Key Losses: Starlin Castro

Projected Lineup

1. Dexter Fowler

2. Ben Zobrist

3. Anthony Rizzo

4. Kris Bryant

5. Jason Heyward

6. Kyle Schwarber

7. Miguel Montero

8. Addison Russell

Fowler could swipe 15 bases and hit 15-20 homers for the Cubs in 2016 … his BABIP was well off compared to career norm … room for batting average improvement … Zobrist’s position eligibility always a reason to celebrate his potential … double-digit homers, run potential uptick and solid batting average and on base percentage rank him 2B-13 in our initial second base rankings … you should draft Rizzo in the first round … you should draft Kris Bryant in the second round … Heyward has averaged 20+ SB in last three “full” seasons … you should draft Schwarber for the power understanding the high-strikeout and modest batting average expectations … see above note for critique … Montero is a great option in two-catcher leagues with double-digit HR potential … Russell was punched out in 28 percent of his plate appearances last season … he must improve that area of his game in order to stay relevant in fantasy baseball

Projected Rotation

1. Jake Arrieta

2. Jon Lester

3. John Lackey

4. Jason Hammel

5. Kyle Hendricks

Jake Arrieta is ranked SP-3 in our initial rankings … see note above for more context … Lester’s K/9 was the best in more than five seasons … he actually pitched better in the second half – opposing BA .216 after the break … Lackey strong season for the Cards in 2015 with K/9 over 7.00, but xFIP was a whole run higher than 2.77 ERA … Hammel’s K/9 in 2015 was two strikeouts higher than career average … should settle in around 3.60 – 3.70 ERA … Hendricks is a fascinating bargain buy on draft day … if he can keep the K/9 around 8.00, his xFIP was lower than his ERA last season and with an offense to provide run support … fascinating …

Top Prospects

The franchise. Yes, you read that right. Most of the organization’s top prospects are in the show. The story now becomes, how does Jorge Soler fit into the puzzle with Dexter Fowler back … Javier Baez can punish baseballs with the best of them, but also strikeouts too often and is without a place to play, too (Zobrist/Russell) … same goes for a guy like 2B/SS prospect Arismendy Alcantara … and embarrassment of riches down in the minors … look for some to get flipped to other teams before the deadline if the Cubbies stay healthy

ALSO SEE: TEAM PREVIEWS ARCHIVE