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2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Checking in on the closers
Major League Baseball has 30 teams, but their closer situations aren't all settled. Some are in the midst of spring training battles, while others have shaky incumbents that might get replaced during the season.
Here's the current look at all 30, with detail provided on those you'll need to watch closely.
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Locked in
Suspension
Yankees - Aroldis Chapman will serve a 30-game suspension, and is eligible to return May 9. It's possible for Andrew Miller to pitch so well as the Yanks' closer that Joe Girardi says, "You know, maybe I'll make Chapman a setup man instead of messing with a good thing." Unlikely, but possible. Pencil in Miller for 10-12 saves over the course of the season, and Chapman for 30 with a bunch of strikeouts.
For reference, Chapman didn't start his 2014 season until May 11, but still finished the season with 36 saves and 106 strikeouts - the Ks ranked him third among relievers, and he was 12th in saves.
Could get interesting
Braves - The team's depth chart lists Arodys Vizcaino as the closer, but that is expected to change when/if Jason Grilli is cleared to return from the Achilles injury he suffered last summer. The 39-year-old Grilli expects to be ready for Opening Day, and you should expect him to hold this job until the trade deadline.
A's - Doolittle missed most of 2015 due to a shoulder injury. He pitched well enough with slightly diminished velocity in 12 late-season appearances, and appears to be throwing well during spring training. Doolittle looks safe enough to draft as a top-20 closer, but if the injury bug bites him again, look for the A's to tab Ryan Madson over Liam Hendriks to save games.
Marlins - Now that Carter Capps is scheduled for Tommy John surgery, A.J. Ramos is the clear-cut closer in Miami. However, 2015 is the first time that Ramos showed acceptable control (26 BB in 70 IP). Lefty Mike Dunn is probably next in line.
Diamondbacks - At what point do we get so skeptical of Brad Ziegler that we avoid him even though he has a job? Probably after seeing his average fastball velocity dip below 84 mph and his strikeout rate check in at 4.76 per nine innings. The D-backs should be competitive, and Ziegler could save 30-plus games as a result ... but he seems like a very risky bet. Though Tyler Clippard is the nominal eighth-inning guy, the best speculative candidate is hard-throwing, two-time Tommy John victim Daniel Hudson.
Phillies - David Hernandez doesn't blow batters away as much as he used to, but he appears to be the favorite to close for the terrible Phillies. That's partly because the only threats to his job are a motley crew that includes Ernesto Frieri, Luis Garcia and Andrew Bailey.
Mariners - Steve Cishek's velocity dropped again last season, and his walk rate shot up to unacceptable levels. He's slated to open 2016 as Seattle's closer and you'll be able to get him late in your drafts, but he's near the bottom of our rankings. Reliable veteran Joaquin Benoit looms as a potential replacement.
Reds - J.J. Hoover should open the season with the job, but he was shakier in 2015 than his 2.94 ERA suggests (4.47 FIP). Jumbo Diaz is the popular speculative option, but some are looking at wild lefty Tony Cingrani.
Padres - Here are Fernando Rodney's WHIP averages over the last five seasons: 1.69, 0.78, 1.34, 1.34, 1.40. One of those things is not like the other, and Rodney's shakiness makes him as risky a closer bet as you can find among those in possession of their jobs. Kevin Quackenbush is likely to step in when Rodney implodes.
Up in the air
Blue Jays - Newcomer Drew Storen and youngster Roberto Osuna are the contenders for the slugging Jays. Most people seem to be betting on Storen, and they're probably right. If he gets the job he'll be a top-12 closer, but his current NFBC ADP is 206. Want to gamble a little?
Rockies - The contenders are Jake McGee, Chad Qualls and Jason Motte, with Motte currently listed as the closer on the team's website. McGee is clearly the best of the trio and should get the nod, though you'll always need to worry a bit about the usual anti-lefty bias.
Brewers - Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress battle it out here, and both are pretty good. Unfortunately for Smith, he's historically been much better against lefties (2.82 career FIP), and that could get him stuck as a setup option (he was better vs. RHB in 2015, though). The not-so-confident bet here is that Jeffress will open the season as Milwaukee's closer, only to be overtaken later in the season by fireballing youngster Corey Knebel.
