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All-Purpose Playbook: NFL Week 15 picks, analysis and more
Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a Buzzer column that is either (a) a guide to many things NFL related, or (b) a road map to hell. Check back here on Friday afternoons for survivor pool analysis, football picks, a smattering of GIFs and some nonsense. Follow me @brettsmiley and email me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.
We didn't suffer an 0-fer humiliation but it was close, as only the Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) against the Andy Dalton-less Cincinnati Bengals delivered us a W on four picks.
In Green Bay, APP erroneously predicted the Cowboys would cover a 7.5-point spread and Darren McFadden would run the ball 27 times. Turned out McFadden and backfield mate Robert Turbin combined for 16 rushes for 162 yards (an incredible 10.1 average) . . . in a 28-7 defeat.
The Cowboys have proven absolutely inept on third downs, converting just once on 11 tries against the Packers and once on 9 attempts the week before that against Washington. That's a miserable 2 for 20 over two weeks. A lot of that falls on Matt Cassel (13 for 29 for just 114 yards at Green Bay), who has continued to struggle as he squeezes every drop of paycheck milk stemming from his nice 2008 effort with the New England Patriots.
Meanwhile in Houston, the New England Patriots Patriot-ed the Texans, registering six sacks, effectively taking DeAndre Hopkins out of the game (3 catches for 52 yards) and neutralizing J.J. Watt, who had to learn how to play the JPP way — with a club on his hand.
And the Buccaneers? They laid a total egg, coming out flat and falling into a 14-0 hole and simply couldn't get off the field on defense as the Saints converted 12 of 17 on third downs and Drew Brees picked them apart, completing 31 of 41 passes for 312 yards.
So let's get to this week's slate as APP seeks a return to glory.
WEEK 15 PICKS
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Atlanta Falcons
PSA for those of you who invested in Falcons (6-7) futures after their blazing 5-0 start: You may now set those tickets on fire. The Falcons, losers of six in a row now, have fully face planted and likely will miss the playoffs.
A lot has gone wrong for Atlanta between scoring a lowly 14.3 points per game over their losing streak, red-zone failures, turnovers and internal scuffles on the sideline. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has dialed up a lot of Matt Ryan (attempted at least 45 passes in four of six of the consecutive losses), who's thrown eight interceptions and lost two fumbles over that span and frequently missed the mark.
Maybe now is the right time to buy the Falcons, but APP isn't buying that. After years of misery (but still beautiful mustaches, see below), the Jaguars (5-8) have a real shot at making the playoffs, thanks in large part to an explosive offense that's scored 32.3 points per game at home and won three of four on their own field, including a 51-point explosion against the Colts last week.
No doubt, this is the biggest Week 15 game the Jaguars have played in a long time. One of the Colts (6-7) and Texans (6-7) will win this week (they play each other), so the Jaguars must also score a W to stay within striking distance.
The Jags may not have rookie rusher T.J. Yeldon (knee) this week, so Denard Robinson would the fill the backfield void again. Regardless, QB Blake Bortles will have his full complement of pass catchers with DOS ALLENS on the outside — Robinson and Hurns — and Julius Thomas at tight end.
And on the other side of the ball, the Jaguars' second-leading tackler, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny (broken hand) has returned to practice and may suit up for a defense that's been stout against the run as it is (11th in the league per Football Outsiders). The Falcons may try to run the ball more in this contest with Devonta Freeman but defending the run has been the Jaguars' strength.
Damn you, Kirk Cousins! Foiled again! I wasn't even going to pick the Washington game this week but now how can I resist? Fine, let's do it.
Washington Flyin' Snyders +1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Jaguars owner Shahid Khan looking fly on the cover of Void Magazine pic.twitter.com/StsiJlSC8L
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) July 31, 2014
The Bills have really excelled at inconsistency this season. They make it difficult to pick for them — or against them — because they're an above-average team, yet they consistently threaten to beat themselves like they did last week in Philadelphia, where they got flagged for a mind-boggling 15 penalties (worth 101 yards).
It may be simpler for officials calling Bills games to leave yellow laundry on the field before every snap and just make an announcement if they're not guilty.
At 6-7 in the AFC East, the Bills will almost certainly miss the playoffs for a 16th consecutive season as 6-7 Washington stands a strong chance to get in by virtue of winning the NFC Least. Happy to have notched their first road win of the season (at Chicago), Washington prepares for its final game at home where they've performed better all season (5-2 straight up).
Quarterback Kirk Cousins has fared much better at home as well, and done a fine job of protecting the football over the past couple months, throwing only three interceptions over the past seven games.
"We're still in the evaluation process," head coach Jay Gruden said of Cousins, "but I'm tickled to death to see how much he's progressed. You can see his confidence just slowly become more of a factor for him in a good way. "
It won't help that Bills' solid cover corner CB Stephon Gilmore is done for the season and defensive end Mario Williams is up in the air due to illness. And on offense, chain-moving tight end Charles Clay is doubtful and bruising LeSean McCoy complement Karlos Williams is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Give APP the point-and-a-half on the home team with a physical front seven, and lot on the line against a team that's proven adept at beating itself when opponents have fallen short.
Cincinnati Bengals -6 at San Francisco 49ers
Is it possible to write about Bengals (10-3) backup and now starting QB AJ McCarron without mentioning his wife? APP will summon all of its Brent Musburger-ean strength to refrain.
The Bengals will be out to prove that the loss of Andy Dalton will not derail a season that began with eight straight wins. They've got to make a push to secure that first-round bye to allow more time for Dalton to heal — and also, of course, to avoid the wild-card round.
Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has said that he won't scale back the Bengals' playbook for rookie McCarron, and he's probably telling the truth. But he may lean more on Jeremy Hill and the offensive line against a lowly 49ers' 31st-ranked rushing defense that's hemorrhaged 133.2 yards per game to opponents on the ground.
That said, McCarron does have a real strong arm and he's not gun shy — he tallied 280 passing yards, a pair of touchdowns with two interceptions in relief of Dalton against the Steelers.
He said it three times, so you know he's serious.
"There's a guy named A.J. Green and Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert," Jackson continued. "We have too many good football players. So I'm not going to stymie our guys because of one position. Because I don't think we need to. This guy can play. Please. This guy can play. It's be different if we had a guy I thought couldn't play. Maybe the conversation we'd have would be different. I believe this guy can play."
And, oh — about that 49ers offensive line that just allowed an obscene 9 sacks to the Cleveland Browns. Call Cincy's defensive front the RABIES unit because it will be frothing at the mouth come Sunday.
The whole Blaine Gabbert-isn't-as-terrible-as-we-thought narrative has been nice, but he's got a poor supporting cast and the offensive line just lost starting guard Alex Boone.
Ahhhhhhhmmrmmrmemgmmm . . .
KATHERINE WEBB!!! BURGERS! Sorry!
(Season record: 23-16-3)
ILL-ADVISED TEASER
Let's make it another 7-pointer with Bengals +1, Washington +8.5 and let's throw the Eagles into the mix to push them out to +10.5. What can I say: I'm a glutton for punishment.
Happy Week 15, everyone!
