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Julio Teheran's improved second half offers positive sign for Braves
ATLANTA - Julio Teheran was handed a gift on Tuesday night, as the highest-scoring lineup in baseball sat two of its best bats, Troy Tulowitzki and Edwin Encarnacion, due to injury. The 24-year-old Braves starter took advantage, at least from a big-picture perspective, striking out seven batters and allowing just two earned runs on the night — an outing which might as well qualify as a gem considering the opposition and Atlanta's last-place standing in MLB's pitching department.
The performance fell in line with Teheran's relative bounce-back from a dreadful first half of the season: Red flags dotted his box score (control issues, high pitch count, struggles vs. left-handers), but he made his final begrudging walk to the dugout with the Braves still in the game against the AL East leaders.
Teheran has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his nine starts since the All-Star break and, as a team over that stretch, Atlanta is 6-3 with Teheran on the mound. It's a 180-degree difference for a franchise that owns an MLB-worst 15-43 second-half record.
The one-time All-Star is already guaranteed his worst full season in the majors, but even marginal improvement is better than the replacement-level alternative. And the Braves could use all the positive news they can find.
"I had to work really deep into areas almost the whole game, all of them were 3-2 counts," Teheran said of his performance following Atlanta's walk-off win over Toronto. "So I had to work a little because they have a really good lineup, so I gotta make really good pitches. But I felt really good. I felt that I held my team (in the game) until my team scored some runs."
Digging deeper into Teheran's outing against Toronto, the issues that have plagued him still continue to pop up at times. He walked four batters, which bumped up his career-high 3.34 walks per nine innings. Left-handed bats tacked on four hits and a home run, adding to his career-worst numbers against them. He's still not the pitcher he was in 2013 and 2014 — when he established himself as one of the top young starters in the National League, posting the third-highest combined WAR among pitchers under 25 behind only Madison Bumgarner and Matt Harvey — but at least he's limiting the damage of late.
His second-half numbers entering the Blue Jays series, while below expectations, still illustrate a significant turnaround for the young right-hander (spoiler: he's improved in every category listed):
To be clear, even those second-half numbers would be the worst of Teheran's career. That's not the No. 1 starter the franchise was banking on heading into 2015.
He's moving in the right direction, though.
"I've seen his command get a lot better. He hasn't let that ball leak back over the plate against left-handed hitters. His command, that's No. 1," Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said of the areas Teheran has improved on since the All-Star break. "When you've got command of your pitches, you can dominate a game."
There are a variety of explanations behind the improvement. Pitching coach Roger McDowell moved Teheran to the first-base side of the rubber. His fastball velocity is back to its career average. He's relying on changeups more than ever before, particularly against left-handers, throwing it 9.3 percent of the time. Adjustments can be found throughout Teheran's gameplan. Maybe it was simply about getting back to normal.
Teheran is scheduled for approximately three more starts before season's end. If he can keep things on track — or, even better, keep taking steps forward — it will go a long way in easing the Braves' offseason workload.
(On the other hand, if Teheran-centric trade rumors spark up again this winter, the team will not be trying to sell low on one of their top young, cost-controlled assets.)
With uncertainty surrounding the myriad young starters that will be vying for 2016 rotation spots and injury concerns with pitchers like Mike Minor and Manny Banuelos, Teheran's return to form would shore up two starting spots for Gonzalez, John Hart and the rest of the front office.
"In the wintertime you don't have to worry about another guy. You can say, 'OK, you've got (Shelby) Miller, you've got Teheran,'" Gonzalez said of Teheran closing the season on a high note. "Minor is coming in. Manny's coming. Williams Perez is pitching well. (Mike Foltynewicz), we still don't know where we're at there. ... (Miller and Teheran) is a nice 1-2 that you can count on."
Teheran just needs to look across the clubhouse for a pitcher that was in his shoes just last season.
Miller suffered a sophomore slump in 2014, as he posted some of the worst advanced metrics in baseball among qualified starters. In fact, his overall numbers (4.54 FIP, 0.5 WAR) were almost identical to Teheran's thus far. Due to the much-discussed development of his two-seam fastball, though, Miller was able to close out the season strong for St. Louis: He allowed just five combined earned runs in his final five starts of 2014.
He rode that momentum right to the top of the Braves' rotation and he's now one of the 20 to 25 most valuable starters in the majors this season. There are worse blueprints Teheran could follow.
"You kinda take what was working that year and what you're successful with into the offseason and making it more sharp," Miller said. "We don't take much time off. We maybe take a month off from throwing, pick up a ball and start throwing again and before you know it we're throwing bullpens. You pick up almost right where we left off. To be coming into that on a roll and doing well, like the stretch (Teheran is) having, there's no doubt that it's refreshing and positive.
"I'd rather finish stronger than I would start strong at the beginning of the season."
