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Editor's note: With fantasy football content ramping up, we will only publish three fantasy baseball DFS posts a week: Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (which will include some weekend picks, too).
Thank you for understanding and I hope you continue to enjoy our content.
Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming...
For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player's isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player's ISO or wOBA, you know why I do it.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the three highest over/unders for Friday, provided by OddsShark...
| Games | O/U |
|---|---|
| SD/COL | 12 |
| NYY/BOS | 10 |
| PIT/CIN | 9.5 |
2. Max Scherzer and the Nats have the largest odds to win on Friday night (-223). Mad Max is 3-0 in four starts agains the Braves this season, but carries a 4.10 ERA in 26.1 innings of work.
3. The lowest over/under of the night lives in Kansas City. The CWS/KC matchup is pegged with a seven-run O/U. Chris Sale is the slight favorite. He's struck out at least eight batters in four fo the past five starts and has allowed two earned runs or less in three consecutive outings.
4. We have a surprisingly good pitching matchup in San Francisco when the Cardinals and Giants square off. Both Luke Weaver and Matt Moore will be great DFS plays as this game is projected to have a low score (7.5 O/U) and San Fran is only a slight favorite (-114).
5. For the BvP readers: Brandon Phillips is 12-24 (.500) with three extra-base hits against Ryan Vogelsong...Miguel Cabrera is 21-42 (.500) with five home runs against Corey Kluber...Also, Jose Altuve is 9-19 (.474) with three extra-base hits against Felix Hernandez.
Must-Start of the day: Nelson Cruz, SEA
Cruz has homered in back-to-back-games and is batting .455 in the past week (10-22). Against Collin McHugh, Cruz is 6-15 (.400) with a pair of home runs. Also, on the season, Cruz has a .237 ISO against righties.
Deal of the day: Josh Bell, PIT
He has a .392 wOBA against righties this year and Bell is batting .348, with three extra-base hits, in the past week.
Avoid of the day: Matt Kemp, ATL
He is 3-36 (.083) with 10 strikeouts against Max Scherzer.
Stack of the day: Cincinnati Reds
Ryan Vogelsong has allowed at least five earned runs in three consecutive outings for the Pirates. Also, his last start was against the Reds: 4 IP, 6 ER. This season, Vogelsong is 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA in 9.1 innings of work against Cincinnati. Brandon Phillips (great BvP), Joey Votto, and Adam Duvall are all great additions to your DFS Friday stack.
Starting pitchers:
Corey Kluber, CLE - For being in a division title race with your rival, the Klubot lives up to his machine-like nickname against Detroit. This year, the cyborg is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in 17 innings of work against the Tigers. He averages a K per inning, too.
Matt Moore, SF - His only hiccup in the past four starts was a trip to Colorado. Other than that, Moore has struck out at least seven batters and allowed no more than two earned runs.
Chris Archer, TB - While the wins haven't been there for Archer (8-18), he's still tallying the strikeouts. Archer has struck out at least six batters in 11 straight starts.
Luke Weaver, STL - Still dirt cheap on DK ($5,200), Weaver has punched out at least eight batters in two of his last three outings and allowed two earned runs or less during that same time span.
Catchers:
Gary Sanchez, NYY - He has a .398 ISO and a .504 wOBA against righties this year.
Russell Martin, TOR - He has a .330 wOBA against righties this season.
First basemen:
David Ortiz, BOS - He has a .364 ISO against righties this year.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR - He has a .276 ISO against righties this season.
Josh Bell, PIT - "Deal of the day."
Joey Votto, CIN - He has a .244 ISO against righties in 2016.
Second basemen:
Ryan Schimpf, SD - He has a .347 ISO against righties this season.
DJ LeMahieu, COL - He has a .399 wOBA against lefties this year and a .440 AVG in the past week.
Third basemen:
Nolan Arenado, COL - He has a .239 ISO against southpaws this season.
Josh Donaldson, TOR - He has a .273 ISO against righties this year.
Jung Ho Kang, PIT - He has a .274 ISO against righties this year.
Evan Longoria, TB - He has a .252 ISO against righties in 2016.
Shortstops:
Brad Miller, TB - He has .261 ISO against righties this year.
Didi Gregorius, NYY - He has a .185 ISO against righties this season.
Outfielders:
Carlos Gonzalez, COL - He has a .245 ISO against lefties this year.
Charlie Blackmon, COL - He has a .371 wOBA agains lefthies and has hit four home runs in the past week.
Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS - He has a .269 ISO against righties in 2016.
Adam Duvall, CIN - He has a .270 ISO against righties this season.
Nelson Cruz, SEA - "Must-start of the day."
Mookie Betts, BOS - He has a .218 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year.
Matt Joyce, PIT - He has a .249 ISO against righties this season.
SATURDAY PLAYS
SPs:
Jake Arrieta, CHC - The Cubs already locked up the division, but Arrieta is still dealing. He has a 2.70 ERA at home this season and has struck out 100 batters during those 86.2 innings of work.
David Price, BOS - He's allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive starts and has struck out at least seven batters in five straight games.
Brandon Finnegan, CIN - In his last start, Finnegan faced the Pirates: 5 IP, 0 ER, and 7 Ks.
Best BvP matchups:
Jarrod Dyson, KC - He is 8-11 (.727) against Miguel Gonzalez.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL - He is 7-14 (.500) with three extra-base hits against Edwin Jackson.
Hunter Pence, SF - He is 13-31 (.419) with five extra-base hits against Mike Leake.
Lineup suggestions:
C - Welington Castillo, ARI - He has a .417 AVG against Bud Norris and a .302 wOBA against righties this season.
1B - Joey Votto, CIN - He has a .244 ISO against righties in 2016.
2B - Ryan Schimpf, SD - He has a .347 ISO against righties this season.
3B - Jake Lamb, ARI - He has a .298 ISO against righties this year.
SS - Corey Seager, LAD - He has a .225 ISO against righties.
OF - Carlos Gonzalez, COL - Solid BvP against Edwin Jackson.
OF - Adam Duvall, CIN - He has a .270 ISO against righties this season.
OF - Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS - He has a .269 ISO against righties in 2016.
SUNDAY PLAYS
SPs:
Ivan Nova, PIT - He's allowed two earned runs or less in five straight starts and has struck out at least six batters in two of the past three outings. He also went the distance in his last contest against the Reds.
Kyle Hendricks, CHC - He's allowed one earned run or less in three consecutive performances and has tallied at least six Ks in three of the past four starts.
Alex Reyes, STL - On the road, Reyes is 1-1 and carries a 1.72 ERA in 15.2 innings of action. He's also notched at least six punchouts in two of the last three starts.
Best BvP matchups:
Anthony Rizzo, CHC - He is 16-32 (.500) with seven home runs against Wily Peralta.
Kevin Kiermaier, TB - He is 4-10 (.400) with three extra-base hits against Wade Miley.
Adam Jones, BAL - He is 11-31 (.355) with two home runs against Jake Odorizzi.
Lineup suggestions:
C - Wilson Ramos, WAS - He has a .354 wOBA against righties in 2016.
1B - Anthony Rizzo,CHC - Did you see those BvP numbers?!
2B - Cesar Hernandez, PHI - He has a .330 wOBA against righties this season.
3B - Josh Donaldson, TOR - He has a .273 ISO against righties this year.
SS - Trea Turner, WAS - He has a .232 ISO against righties in 2016.
OF - Yasiel Puig, LAD - He has a .209 ISO against lefties this year.
OF - Odubal Herrera, PHI - He has a .352 wOBA against righties this season.
OF - Kevin Kiermaier, TB - He has a .205 ISO against lefties this year.
