.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
WhatIfSports 2014 College Football Week 11 Predictions
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine provides game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams.
Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.
The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.
Game of the Week: Ohio State at Michigan State
Remember when former Ohio State president Gordon Gee said Boise State and TCU shouldn't get a chance to play for the BCS National Championship because "we don't play the little sisters of the poor." Well, something must have changed since Gee left to run West Virginia University because the Buckeyes 2014 schedule is Tempur-Pedic soft.
OSU's only loss came at home to Virginia Tech - a team currently looking at a 4-5 record, seventh in the ACC. In the six games that have followed, the Buckeyes are averaging more than 51 points per win, but the toughest challenger has been a five-win Cincinnati squad.
Despite this, an upset win in East Lansing against No. 8 Michigan State would boost the No. 16 Buckeyes into the top 10 with their second-string quarterback running the offense. Freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 1,856 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Like so many recent OSU quarterbacks, Barrett also moves the chains with his legs with 106 carries (second on team) for nearly 500 yards with a team-high six touchdowns.
Running back Ezekiel Elliott is nearly tied with Northwestern's Justin Jackson for the conference rushing lead among sophomores with over 700 yards with five touchdowns to-date. Sophomore Michael Thomas leads the receiver corps with 28 receptions for 447 yards with six touchdowns. The uber-underclass offense currently ranks 15th in the national in total yards per game, but their strength of schedule ranks 63rd. Keep that in mind when you hear the Buckeyes' defense is eighth in the country (300 yards allowed per game) and ranks inside the top 20 in scoring defense as they allow less than 20 points per contest.
The Spartans defense ranks inside the Top 15 against the rush, pass and, naturally, total yards - 279 yards allowed per game. Their 20.3 points allowed per game (22nd in country) are skewed a little due to Oregon ringing up 46 points on them early in the season and Purdue hanging 31 on them in a loss a few weeks ago.
Connor Cook is completing better than 60 percent of his passes for 1,868 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. Running back Jeremy Langford is closing in on 1,000 rushing yards with a team-high 10 touchdowns. Tony Lippett has created a nice balance in the rush and passing game and is the leading receiver by far with 42 receptions for 889 yards with nine touchdowns.
This is one of those games that could come down to turnover margin, which MSU has a slight statistical advantage of +1.50, while the Buckeyes are +1.00 turnover margin per game. In ratio form, MSU is 22:10 and OSU is 20:12.
We simulated the Buckeyes and Spartans 101 times and the computers like Michigan State to win 53 percent of the time by an average score of 19.9-19.7.
| College Football Week 11 Predictions | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 29.7 | 18.2 | Boxscore |
| @ Florida State Seminoles | 70.3 | 27.2 | |
| Louisville Cardinals | 54.5 | 19.9 | Boxscore |
| @ Boston College Eagles | 45.5 | 18.8 | |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 66.3 | 24.6 | Boxscore |
| @ North Carolina State Wolfpack | 33.7 | 20.0 | |
| Duke Blue Devils | 70.3 | 26.5 | Boxscore |
| @ Syracuse Orange | 29.7 | 17.7 | |
| Clemson Tigers | 76.2 | 24.4 | Boxscore |
| @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 23.8 | 14.8 | |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 47.0 | 19.7 | Boxscore |
| @ Michigan State Spartans | 53.0 | 19.9 | |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 55.9 | 23.4 | Boxscore |
| @ Indiana Hoosiers | 44.1 | 21.6 | |
| Michigan Wolverines | 58.9 | 21.5 | Boxscore |
| @ Northwestern Wildcats | 41.1 | 17.5 | |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 60.9 | 21.2 | Boxscore |
| @ Minnesota Golden Gophers | 39.1 | 17.0 | |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 75.2 | 25.5 | Boxscore |
| @ Purdue Boilermakers | 24.8 | 17.7 | |
| Buffalo Bulls | 48.5 | 22.5 | Boxscore |
| @ Ohio Bobcats | 51.5 | 22.6 | |
| Bowling Green Falcons | 53.5 | 25.5 | Boxscore |
| @ Akron Zips | 46.5 | 22.7 | |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 76.2 | 27.8 | Boxscore |
| @ Ball State Cardinals | 23.8 | 19.3 | |
| Toledo Rockets | 76.7 | 28.4 | Boxscore |
| @ Kent State Golden Flashes | 23.3 | 19.5 | |
| Colorado Buffaloes | 21.8 | 20.3 | Boxscore |
| @ Arizona Wildcats | 78.2 | 30.8 | |
| Washington State Cougars | 40.6 | 29.3 | Boxscore |
| @ Oregon State Beavers | 59.4 | 32.3 | |
| Oregon Ducks | 53.5 | 24.4 | Boxscore |
| @ Utah Utes | 46.5 | 22.4 | |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 55.9 | 25.3 | Boxscore |
| @ Arizona State Sun Devils | 44.1 | 23.9 | |
| UCLA Bruins | 59.4 | 25.1 | Boxscore |
| @ Washington Huskies | 40.6 | 22.3 | |
| Presbyterian Blue Hose | 5.0 | 7.7 | Boxscore |
| @ Ole Miss Rebels | 95.0 | 49.4 | |
| UTM Skyhawks | 5.0 | 7.5 | Boxscore |
| @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | 95.0 | 52.0 | |
| Texas A&M Aggies | 37.6 | 22.4 | Boxscore |
| @ Auburn Tigers | 62.4 | 27.5 | |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 62.4 | 26.1 | Boxscore |
| @ Kentucky Wildcats | 37.6 | 20.9 | |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 64.9 | 23.7 | Boxscore |
| @ LSU Tigers | 35.1 | 19.9 | |
| Florida Gators | 70.8 | 22.6 | Boxscore |
| @ Vanderbilt Commodores | 29.2 | 15.8 | |
| Connecticut Huskies | 74.8 | 25.5 | Boxscore |
| @ Army Black Knights | 25.2 | 19.3 | |
| Kansas State Wildcats | 45.5 | 23.5 | Boxscore |
| @ TCU Horned Frogs | 54.5 | 24.0 | |
| Baylor Bears | 56.9 | 25.5 | Boxscore |
| @ Oklahoma Sooners | 43.1 | 22.9 | |
| West Virginia Mountaineers | 67.3 | 27.1 | Boxscore |
| @ Texas Longhorns | 32.7 | 20.4 | |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 70.3 | 23.8 | Boxscore |
| @ Kansas Jayhawks | 29.7 | 18.9 | |
| UTSA Roadrunners | 31.7 | 18.8 | Boxscore |
| @ Rice Owls | 68.3 | 25.3 | |
| FIU Golden Panthers | 45.5 | 22.5 | Boxscore |
| @ Old Dominion Monarchs | 54.5 | 24.9 | |
| UTEP Miners | 49.5 | 29.2 | Boxscore |
| @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 50.5 | 30.0 | |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 51.5 | 26.1 | Boxscore |
| @ UAB Blazers | 48.5 | 26.0 | |
| Florida Atlantic Owls | 53.0 | 22.8 | Boxscore |
| @ North Texas Mean Green | 47.0 | 20.9 | |
| Marshall Thundering Herd | 88.1 | 34.2 | Boxscore |
| @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 11.9 | 21.9 | |
| Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 31.7 | 22.3 | Boxscore |
| @ Colorado State Rams | 68.3 | 31.3 | |
| Idaho Vandals | 31.2 | 20.7 | Boxscore |
| @ San Diego State Aztecs | 68.8 | 27.2 | |
| San Jose State Spartans | 56.4 | 29.0 | Boxscore |
| @ Fresno State Bulldogs | 43.6 | 25.4 | |
| Air Force Falcons | 60.9 | 26.9 | Boxscore |
| @ UNLV Rebels | 39.1 | 24.6 | |
| Utah State Aggies | 67.3 | 27.4 | Boxscore |
| @ Wyoming Cowboys | 32.7 | 22.2 | |
| Boise State Broncos | 67.3 | 32.3 | Boxscore |
| @ New Mexico Lobos | 32.7 | 24.4 | |
| Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 36.6 | 21.8 | Boxscore |
| @ Appalachian State Mountaineers | 63.4 | 25.7 | |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 46.5 | 22.4 | Boxscore |
| @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | 53.5 | 24.5 | |
| Georgia State Panthers | 46.0 | 25.4 | Boxscore |
| @ Troy Trojans | 54.0 | 28.1 | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 52.5 | 26.8 | Boxscore |
| @ Texas State Bobcats | 47.5 | 25.0 | |
| Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 58.9 | 27.9 | Boxscore |
| @ New Mexico State Aggies | 41.1 | 23.5 | |
| SMU Mustangs | 28.7 | 19.2 | Boxscore |
| @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 71.3 | 28.3 | |
| Tulane Green Wave | 37.6 | 19.6 | Boxscore |
| @ Houston Cougars | 62.4 | 23.7 | |
| Memphis Tigers | 54.5 | 22.3 | Boxscore |
| @ Temple Owls | 45.5 | 21.9 |
For additional statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
