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FEATURED GAME
Cal at No. 14 Stanford
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -7
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The heck with the original blueprint. Stanford has been so dominant over the last three weeks, it's skipped a few stages in the rebuilding process. Who needs a gradual progression when you can batter Arizona State, Oregon, and USC in consecutive games and become one of the hottest topics in the sport? Last Saturday's 55-21 smackdown of the Trojans was a seminal moment for Jim Harbaugh and a Cardinal team that remains on the periphery of the Rose Bowl hunt. Cal would love nothing more than to stop its chief rival in its tracks. The Bears just got done knocking Arizona down a peg in the pecking order, and have won four of the last five games. A win in the Big Game would put a positive spin on a season that nearly veered off the rails in early October. Why Cal might win: The Stanford defense, while making strides, has allowed at least 38 points in three of the last five games and will finish the year sans top linebacker, Clinton Snyder. The Cardinal has had particular problems stopping the pass, which is good news for Bear QB Kevin Riley. The junior has managed the season modestly well, throwing three times as many touchdowns as picks and helping speedy WR Marvin Jones mature in his second season. RB Shane Vereen may not be Jahvid Best, Cal's injured star, but he does a pretty good impersonation, averaging more than five yards a carry and twice going for 150 yards in the past month. Why Stanford might win: There might not be an offense in America that's executing better than the one on the Farm. The Cardinal now leads the league at 445 yards a game, hanging more than 50 points on Oregon and USC defenses that were supposed to be two of the Pac-10's stingiest. Blending the power running of Toby Gerhart with the precision passing of Andrew Luck, Stanford has been virtually unstoppable for the past month. Not to be forgotten is an offensive line that's allowed six sacks in 10 games and has exceeded everyone's expectations. Given time to throw, Luck will have success against an overrated Cal secondary that's allowed seven touchdown passes in the last four games and ranks 114th nationally in pass defense. Who to watch: Now that Best won't suit up, Stanford can stake claim to the Big Game's biggest threat in the open field. Whether he's catching passes or fielding kickoffs, WR Chris Owusu is a game-changer with the speed and explosiveness to bring the home crowd to its feet. If the sophomore is permitted to stretch the field, it'll open things up for the running game and the underneath stuff for WR Ryan Whalen and TE Coby Fleener.
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| Best of the Rest |
No. 9 Ohio State at Michigan Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET |
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Line: Ohio State -12.5 |
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After all the issues, all the bizarre paperwork problems with compliance officers, and all the losses, Rich Rodriguez can go from hot seat to hot coach with one win. He hasn't been allowed to have a grace period to rebuild the program, and he hasn't been allowed much time to bring in his players to mold Michigan into his image and vision. While he won't be fired this year, even if the Wolverines get blown away 55-0 by the Buckeyes to end the season with a five-game losing skid, he'll be on double-secret probation in 2010. But if he can lead Michigan to a win, not only will there be a bowl game at the end of the rough journey, but it'll be the first win over Ohio State since 2003. Lose, and the season is over. Ohio State can say all the right things about being fired up for a rivalry that was the best in all of sports just a few short years ago, but the reality is that none of the players know what it's like to lose to the Wolverines, and the big game was last week with an overtime win over Iowa to get to the Rose Bowl for the first time under Jim Tressel. Of course, Tressel hasn't taken a team to Pasadena because he was too busy leading the way to national championship games, and while getting the Big Ten's BCS bid is fantastic by itself, in so many ways this has been a special season for other reasons.
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No. 11 Oregon at Arizona Saturday, 8 p.m. ET |
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Line: Oregon -6 |
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The muddled mess that is the Pac-10 race is about to get some clarity in Tucson. Although not as compelling as before Arizona lost to Cal last weekend, both schools control their own destiny in the quest for Pasadena. Win out and a Rose Bowl date with Ohio State is the prize. The Wildcats stumbled in Berkeley, 24-16, their first loss in over a month. They'll need to regroup in a hurry, delivering some of that November magic that's become customary since Mike Stoops was hired. The Ducks got back on track following their loss to Stanford two weeks ago, routing Arizona State in Eugene, 44-21. The last remaining team with just one conference loss, Oregon will carry a target on its chest until someone can replace it at the top of the pile. Against some of the better offenses on the docket, Arizona has wilted, yielding an average of 37 points in consecutive games with Oregon State, Washington, and Stanford. Only when the likes of UCLA and Washington State came up on the schedule did the situation stabilize. The Ducks will provide no such breather, cranking out a league-high 237 yards a game on the ground and scoring at least 40 points in each of the last four games.
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No. 10 LSU at Mississippi Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
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Line: Mississippi -3.5 |
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The issue of who's No. 3 in the SEC should be settled in Oxford. For all the issues and all the problems Ole Miss has had this year, in the end, it might all work out if it can beat LSU this week and Mississippi State to close. The Rebels would be 9-3, with a New Year's Day bowl locked up, and would have a chance at a ten-win season. Basically, they'd be exactly where most predicted they'd be at the start of the season. But LSU isn't going to go down easily. This is a flawed team in several ways, but it has managed to keep on winning. The two losses came to Florida and Alabama, and there's no shame there. If there wasn't the silly rule about only two teams from a conference being allowed in the BCS, LSU would be a lock for one of the games, but as is, it will either be in the Cotton Bowl or in a premier Florida bowl against a Big Ten team with a win in the final two games. The Tigers are coming off a shaky performance against Louisiana Tech, and while they're bruised and beaten up, they need to play far better than they have over the first ten games of the season to get by Ole Miss. The regular season finale against Arkansas won't be a layup, either, for a team that struggles to put points on the board and might be in trouble against QB Ryan Mallett and the Hog passing game. Even though it's late November, the two teams are trying to figure out who they are and what they do best. This game will likely define each team's season.
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Kansas at No. 3 Texas Saturday, 8 p.m. ET |
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Line: Texas -28 |
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Can Kansas, with coach Mark Mangino under much criticism and scrutiny this week, be the one to ruin the party? Texas has been steamrolling toward the Big 12 title and a possible national title shot by dominating over the second half of the season, and now it's just four games away from a championship. The Longhorns can wrap up the South with a win over Kansas, but they're obviously thinking about bigger goals with the rivalry date at Texas A&M on Thanksgiving to follow, and an almost certain Big 12 championship showdown against Nebraska or Kansas State. That would set up a date with the Florida-Alabama winner (most likely) for the whole ball of wax. But this game counts as the embodiment of the one-game-at-a-time cliché with a wounded and desperate Jayhawk team in the midst of a five-game losing streak and off-the-field issues to add salt to the wounds. Kansas officials this week confirmed that the school is investigating allegations of verbal and emotional abuse by Mangino. Against that backdrop, the Jayhawks will try to snap a five-game losing streak. The Kansas offense that was supposed to be unstoppable has had a nightmare of a time putting points on the board, and now, after a 5-0 start, it'll take a win over the Longhorns this week or against Missouri in the regular season finale just to get to a bowl game. But many of the problems could be swept away with a win to ruin the Texas national title dream.
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Duke at No. 21 Miami Saturday, Noon ET
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Line: Miami -19.5 |
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For one of the first times all year, Miami has begun to show its youth and a spate of injuries, playing poorly at North Carolina and getting eliminated in the Coastal Division race. At 7-3, the 'Canes are at a crossroad in the season. At 9-3, the campaign is a success that could net a higher-end postseason invitation, like the Chick-fil-A or Gator Bowl. At 7-5, however, all of that equity and momentum built in September would be squandered. The clock is ticking on Duke's quest of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 1994. After getting outclassed by Carolina and Georgia Tech in consecutive weeks, the Blue Devils are now down to two chances to pick up that coveted sixth win. A third loss in a row could put the program in a tailspin and create a colossal amount of pressure for the regular-season finale with Wake Forest. Over the last month, the Miami defense has gotten exposed, allowing at least 27 points three times and struggling with quality quarterbacks. Thaddeus Lewis, who's returning to his native Florida, is capable of keeping the 'Canes reeling. Against better competition, Duke has wilted, especially on defense. The Blue Devils have had some moments, but the Hurricanes aren't Maryland or Virginia with the ball.
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Kansas State at Nebraska Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET |
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Line: Nebraska -16.5 |
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When college football fans like to throw out the "every game matters" cliché, it truly applies to this week's game for Kansas State. The Wildcats have hit the six-win mark, but thanks to poor scheduling, playing two FCS teams (UMass and Tennessee Tech) and with a loss to Louisiana-Lafayette in what was supposed to be a cupcake game, they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Not only will they get a 13th game with a win, but they'll get a 14th as the North representative in the Big 12 Championship. Missouri or Iowa State could technically tie for the title, but KSU and Nebraska win all the tie-breakers. For the Huskers, a win would mean a trip back to the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2006, and it would be a tremendous next step in the Bo Pelini era. Thanks to a stifling defense, the Huskers are on a three-game winning streak, with the D playing well in a loss to Iowa State before the run of wins. Because of Pelini and the D, Nebraska has a shot at giving Texas a hard time in the championship game, but first comes the must-win game against Bill Snyder's resilient squad. The Huskers still have to play Colorado next Friday, but that game will only impact the bowl pecking order.
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