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Fearless Predictions for Week 14

by CollegeFootballNews.com


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Updated: March 23, 2009, 8:00 PM EDT
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Come back here each week for the latest edition of Fearless Predictions for every game, complete with the projected final score.

For more college football predictions and analysis go to WhatIfSports.com

Fearless Predictions
ACC | Big East | Big 12 | C-USA | Pac-10 | SEC | WAC
3. Oklahoma (10-1) at 12. Oklahoma State (9-2) — Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma -8
In 2002, Oklahoma was trying to stay in the national title chase, but lost its regular-season finale at Oklahoma State 38-28. In 2001, the Sooners were third in the BCS rankings with their destiny in their own hands before losing to a 3-7 Oklahoma State team, 16-13, to not only ruin national-title dreams but to also allow Texas to play for the Big 12 title (and choke away its own national title shot in a loss to Colorado). OU has had its comeuppance with five straight wins in the series, and now it needs to not only come up with a sixth straight victory, but it also has to do it with some pizzazz.

The drill is simple. If Texas Tech beats Baylor, then Oklahoma has to win this game and hope for more love from the BCS computers to win the three-way tie in the South. The humans are on the Sooners' side with the coaches ranking them second in their poll and the Harris types ranking them fourth after the dominant 65-21 win over Texas Tech, but the computers aren't as impressed. The OU offense has been a machine, averaging 59.2 points per game since the loss to Texas, hanging 50 or more in seven games and 60 or more in the last three. When it comes to style, Tim Gunn has nothing on this offense. Even the maligned defense has come through holding teams down just enough so the offense can do its thing. Texas Tech's high-octane offense sputtered and coughed all game long in the blowout.

On the other side, Oklahoma State is lying in wait. The Cowboys have had their moments, highlighted by a win at Missouri and a great game at Texas in a 28-24 loss, but they've been knocked out of the spotlight after getting drilled 56-20 by Texas Tech. A win this week would boost the bowl stock immeasurably and would send the BCS into a tizzy. It would also, barring a major upset from Baylor, put Texas Tech into the Big 12 title game against Missouri.

Why Oklahoma might win: The same formula that worked against Texas Tech should work against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have a decent defense, but it can be thrown on and if there isn't any pressure, get ready for another 60s revival on the scoreboard. Graham Harrell had 10 days to throw in Texas Tech's blowout over OSU completing 40-of-50 passes for 456 yards and six touchdowns, while his backup, Taylor Potts, completed all five of his throws for 60 yards and a touchdown. Sam Bradford is completing close to 70 percent of his passes as he's been eating defenses alive all season long by putting the ball in places where his vast array of weapons can do something with it. In his last three games he has thrown for 935 yards and 13 touchdowns with just one interception. If OSU doesn't bring the pressure, he'll complete 75 percent of his throws and all but engrave his name on the Heisman.

Why Oklahoma State might win: Oklahoma State will bring the pressure. Don't underestimate the importance of having two weeks off to prepare for a big rivalry game like this. All Oklahoma has talked about since the Texas Tech game has been the BCS, style points, and why it should be playing for the national championship. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has been forgotten; it's an afterthought. No one is going to pick the Cowboys to win. In fact, everyone will be assuming this will be another Texas Tech debacle ... for both teams. How did Oklahoma lose to Texas? The running game kept things moving, and Oklahoma State should be able to run the ball on the Sooner defensive front better than anyone has since that loss in Dallas. Jordan Shipley came up with a game-changing punt return for a score, and Oklahoma State is second in the nation in punt returns and has been tremendous all year long on special teams. And Colt McCoy was deadly accurate. The OSU offensive line is better than any line OU has faced all season, outside of its own practices. QB Zac Robinson is far more mobile than Graham Harrell, and while OU might try to bring the pressure like it did last week, it's not likely to have the same success.

Who to watch: Oklahoma State can't win with its passing game. It has to get a big day out of the running backs, and it needs Kendall Hunter to play at close to 100 percent . Getting two weeks off was vital, as the Cowboy star has been trying to get over a quadriceps injury, and now he appears to be fine. The Big 12's leading rusher has torn off over 100 yards in every game but two, getting 90 against Texas A&M and 93 against Baylor. It'll take Hunter, Keith Toston, and the running of Robinson to get the nation's eighth-ranked rushing offense moving on OU.

What will happen: One of two things will happen. Oklahoma will prove it's a national title-caliber powerhouse by blowing through Stillwater with a 30-plus-point win and yet another nuclear offensive display, or the team will come in overconfident, Oklahoma State will be well prepared, and this will be an epic firefight with the Cowboys pulling off the stunner. You know the BCS chase isn't going to end up as cut-and-dried easy as it appears to be right now, so ...

Prediction: Oklahoma State 45 ... Oklahoma 42
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax

Best of the Rest
No. 1 Alabama vs. Auburn
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Alabama -14
In Alabama, everyone talks about this game for 365 days out of the year. Think that's an overstatement? Ask any of the sports talk hosts and this game and/or this rivalry will bring in the callers every day, every show. So while this year's Iron Bowl really doesn't matter on a national scale — even if Alabama loses it'll play for the national title if it beats Florida in the SEC Championship — it's still huge to Tide fans who've had to hear about the six-game losing streak in the series for, well, six years. That's a long, long time when it's being talked about and brought up day after day after day. But for the recently suffering Tide faithful, this appears to be when everything is changing. Auburn is a mess, with the offensive coordinator issues killing what should've been a big year, and a defense that's doing what it can, but isn't doing enough over a string of five losses in the last six games.
Prediction: Alabama 31 ... Auburn 16
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 22 Georgia Tech
Saturday at noon ET
Line:
Georgia -8
When Paul Johnson was hired by Georgia Tech almost a year ago, he knew that beating Georgia was on the top of his to-do list. The Yellow Jackets have lost seven in a row to the Bulldogs, moving further and further behind their in-state rival, a gap Johnson is in charge of narrowing. Tech is coming off an impressive win over Miami last Thursday, and is in the ACC Coastal clubhouse with a 5-3 mark. To win the division, however, it'll need Virginia to upset Virginia Tech on Saturday afternoon. The Bulldogs must get to 10 wins in order to keep their fading at-large BCS bowl hopes alive. With Florida and Alabama on target to gobble up those two SEC openings, however, a far more likely scenario has them playing in the Capital One Bowl against a Big Ten opponent.
Prediction:Georgia 28 ... Georgia Tech 24
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
 
Kansas at No. 13 Missouri
Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Missouri -14
Last year these two played one of the most important games of the season, and it was certainly the most important game in the history of the two programs, as an unbeaten Missouri held off an unbeaten Kansas to take over the No. 1 spot in America on the was to the Big 12 title game. Of course, KU got the last laugh with a date in the Orange Bowl while Mizzou got the honor of picking over a dead Arkansas team in the Cotton Bowl. This year, it's an exhibition game. Kansas is going bowling, even if it's 6-6, and it's probably going to get the league's sixth best bowl slot, considering two Big 12 teams will be in the BCS. For the Tigers, this game means almost nothing. They're an almost certain lock to go to the Gator Bowl, or else back to the Cotton, no matter what happens this week, unless they can pull off an upset and beat Oklahoma ... or Texas Tech ... or Texas ... in the Big 12 title game. Mizzou has had the North wrapped up for a a few weeks, and now it's time to sharpen up for a chance to earn the spot in the BCS it should've had last year.
Prediction: Missouri 44 ... Kansas 27
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
 
Baylor at No. 7 Texas Tech
Saturday at 3:30
Line:
Texas Tech -20
Texas Tech saw its national title dreams die with a 65-21 loss to Oklahoma last week ... or did it? If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, all the Red Raiders have to do is beat Baylor and they're playing Missouri for the Big 12 title. Win that, and then the national championship discussion gets very, very interesting. First things first, Tech has to get its mojo back against a Baylor team coming off one of its best wins in the last several years blasting Texas A&M 41-21. A bowl dream died with a four-game losing streak before the win over the Aggies, but a win over Texas Tech would set the tone for 2009 and would make Baylor one of the "it" programs to watch out for. Of course, Texas wouldn't mind a Bear win, because that would mean the Longhorns would go to the Big 12 Championship if they beat Texas A&M.
Prediction: Texs Tech 52 ... Baylor 20
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
Syracuse vs. No. 16 Cincinnati
Saturday at noon
Line:
Cincinnati -22
Beat the Orange. Play in the Orange. That's the mantra for Cincinnati, which needs a win over Syracuse or a West Virginia loss to clinch the Big East title and a berth in the Orange Bowl. The Bearcats remained the team to beat by knocking off Pittsburgh, 28-21, before a delighted Nippert Stadium crowd. They've endured a spate of turnover and injuries at quarterback before settling on junior Tony Pike, who's performed like a poor-man's Matt Ryan. Any chance that Cincinnati would look past Syracuse went away when it shocked Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday. The Orange has clearly gotten Brian Kelly's attention, who'll remind his kids all week how dangerous this weekend's opponent can be. Even with a lame duck coach, Syracuse has played relatively well in November, also surprising Louisville earlier in the month.
Prediction: Cincinnati 34 ... Syracuse 17
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax

 
No. 4 Florida vs. No. 20 Florida State
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Florida -15.5
As if this storied rivalry needs any more juice, the Gators are one of just five teams with a legitimate shot at a national crown and the 'Noles are in the hunt for the ACC title and their first 10-win season since 2003. Florida may be No. 4 in the latest BCS rankings, but after seven straight wins by at least 28 points, it's recognized in many circles as the hottest and most talented team in the country. With wins over Florida State and Alabama, the Gators would likely be the top seed in the BCS Championship Game. The Seminoles are coming off a statement blowout at Maryland one week after laying an egg in a critical home loss to Boston College. They've got a half-game lead in the Atlantic Division, but need the Eagles to lose Saturday afternoon in order to play in the ACC championship game. Florida State has lost the last four to Florida, so a win here would send a national statement that the program is on the verge of turning the corner.
Prediction: Florida 39 ... Florida State 21
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
Maryland vs. No. 21 Boston College
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Boston College -7
This game was supposed to be a winner-take-all affair in the Atlantic Division until Maryland got abused at home by Florida State Saturday night. Now, only Boston College can parlay a victory into a spot in the ACC championship game. With a win, the Eagles will face either Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech in Tampa next Saturday. With a loss, they'll cede the division over to the Seminoles. Since losing a game to Clemson on Nov. 1, Boston College has won three straight to get into this position. The Terrapins will need to regroup in a hurry with little more than pride and bowl positioning at stake. Difficult to size up throughout the season, they didn't stand a chance against the 'Noles, giving up 21 unanswered points in the second quarter and never mounting a challenge in the second half.
Prediction: Boston College 24 ... Maryland 13
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
 
No. 23 Oregon at No. 17 Oregon State
Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
Line: Oregon State -3.5
It's not hyperbole to label this week's Civil War the biggest game in the history of Oregon State football. For a program that endured so many years as a Pac-10 doormat, it's now just one more win away from a trip to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1965. That the clincher would come against rival Oregon adds another layer of intrigue to this weekend's game. The Beavers remained ahead of perennial champ USC by rallying in the final minutes to beat Arizona on a Justin Kahut kick as time expired. Naturally, Oregon would love nothing more than to derail Oregon State's dreams of Pasadena in front of a delirious crowd in Corvallis. Ranked again and eyeing a possible berth in the Holiday Bowl, the Ducks still have plenty to play for, including a share of the Pac-10 title if USC was to somehow lose to UCLA in two weeks.
Prediction: Oregon State 27 ... Oregon 20
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax

Notre Dame vs. No. 5 USC
Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
Line:
USC -29
Notre Dame is once again dominating headlines and message boards, but for all the wrong reasons. After raising expectations with a 5-2 start, the Irish has sunk to three losses in the last four games, capped by last Saturday's stunner at the hands of lowly Syracuse. A familiar buzz surrounding the future of head coach Charlie Weis has resurfaced, creating a distraction and plenty of rubbernecking heading into this weekend's 80th meeting with USC. The Trojans, riding a seven-game winning streak and trying to spruce up their BCS resume, would love nothing more than to add to Notre Dame's misery. While Troy can't control what happens in the Pac-10 race, it can lock up an at-large BCS berth by winning the next two games with rivals Notre Dame and UCLA. Since Oregon and Oregon State tee off an hour earlier, there'll be a fair amount of scoreboard watching going on from the USC sidelines.
Prediction: USC 44 ... Notre Dame 10
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
 

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