by Jeff Hammond

Updated: August 19, 2004, 3:51 PM EST

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Mayfield's team has to be saying, "We're here, and we've got to stay here. What's it going to take?" I'd like to be a fly on the wall at Evernham Motorsports and four or five other teams right now to figure out who has the winning strategy and who is getting ready to grab a short rope with a long drop to hang themselves.

If you say the Chase for the Championship isn't a good idea, you're not really paying attention because nine teams that can change positions in and out of the top 10 over the next four races. It's pretty phenomenal.

Looking Great: What must be going through the minds of the crewmen on the 48 and 24 teams? How can they be so dominant for two days and then look like they fell off a turnip truck? It all came apart at the seams on Sunday. They started experimenting in areas where they normally wouldn't during a point race. Hendrick Motorsports have been the class of the field so they took some chances at Watkins Glen. Jimmie Johnson had a transmission-related problem. Jeff Gordon had a transmission problem too and said they were trying something. They're trying to see if they can gain an advantage to help them win races, but it didn't work. Thanks to the new point structure, there are more agendas than ever before at this point in the season.

Looking Vulnerable: Kurt Busch told me they're holding back a car for the Chase for the Championship. If they don't need to run it at Richmond to stay in or get into the top 10, they're going to save it for Loudon so they can bring their best piece to the first of the final 10 races. But if they need to run the car to make sure they stay in or get in the top 10, they will run it.

Within Reach:
*Ryan Newman: There's a lot of soul searching going on over at the 12 car at Penske Racing, you're sadly mistaken. Crew chief Matt Borland and that whole group must be saying, "OK, guys. We got out of Watkins Glen. We don't have to go to any more road courses so put it behind us. Don't worry about it. What's done is done. Let's see what we've got to do now to get through Michigan. If we go up there and win the race, we'll get right back in this thing." You're going to hear some teams trying to pick themselves up, brush themselves off and go on.
*Dale Jarrett: Across the street from our new Pit Instruction Training shop, the 88 team is licking its wounds after Watkins Glen. They had been on a roll.

Over the next four races, no driver from ninth to 15th in the standings has an advantage over another so it comes down to who's lucky and who isn't. Bristol can take a toll on the Chase for the Championship. You can have problems at Michigan, but everything happens so much faster in Thunder Valley. You can even be the leader and get caught up in a wreck.

Every one of these teams is capable of running well at Michigan so it's going to be hard to gain a lot of points on the field. You could see a big swing from ninth to 12th. If Ryan Newman — who is in 12th place in the standings — finishes second in the race and Bobby Labonte — who is ninth in the standings finishes 12th in the race, Newman can climb back into the top 10. It's just so tight.

Bobby Labonte's team continues to fall back. They're not flexing any muscle right now. If I were Labonte, I'd be concerned because Mayfield, Newman and Kahne are going to run strong at Michigan. If he gets dislodged from the top 10 this late in the deal, it would be a hard pill to swallow.

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FOX race analyst Jeff Hammond led Darrell Waltrip to two of DW's three Winston Cup championships as his crew chief. They also teamed to win the 1989 Daytona 500.

For Jeff Hammond's "Real Men Work in the Pits" magnets, Hollywood Hotel hats and more, check out www.dwstore.com.

For photos and appearances, visit Jeff's web site www.jeffhammond.com.