Nadal closing in on Federer

by MATTHEW CRONIN, FOXSports.com

Updated: March 28, 2008, 7:02 PM EST 15 comments

Nadal is just 350 points behind Federer, the closest he has ever been. But this week, at the Pacific Life Open at Indian Wells, Calif., the swaggering Spaniard must defend his 2007 title, which is worth a substantial 500 points.

Unless he pulls off a miracle, Nadal will not catch Federer anytime soon. Even if he manages to repeat at Indian Wells, he has to defend the Miami quarterfinals, title runs in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome, as well as the Hamburg final. Then he has to (gulp) defend his French Open title.

That's a whopping 3,150 points to defend out of his 5,980 total points in just three-and-a-half month's time.

In contrast, Federer only has to defend 1,075 points of his 6,330 points in the same period, which includes his Hamburg crown.

Nadal may catch Federer, but it's highly unlikely that he will come close until the late summer or fall, when Federer has to defend his Wimbledon and U.S. Open crowns.

"It is closer in the rankings, but not closer if you know exactly what I have to defend right now," the 21-year-old Nadal said. "I have to defend my title here, I have quarterfinals in Miami and on clay, it's better that I don't remember. So maybe this is not the moment for me to be world No. 1, that's for sure."

Who knows when that moment will exactly come and really, should No. 1 matter to Nadal now? Once again, he is trying to yank himself out of his semi-spectacular cycle: a great first half of the season, and then a rapid fall off after Wimbledon.

In the last two years, Nadal has only won one title after his exhausting January through Paris and London stretch — tiny Stuggart on clay after he fell to Federer in five sets in a thrilling and mind-bending 2007 Wimbledon final, a loss that made the strong man cry.

He's had plenty of physical issues due to the massive demands that his defensive style puts on his muscular yet fragile body. He's the biggest ticket on clay in Europe, and after the tough Indian Wells-Miami stretch he puts himself through the dirt-clogged grinder of Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome, Hamburg and Rolannd Garros, where few matches are won without dropping a couple of quarts of sweat.

If he's going to have the same impact that he did last, year, much less a bigger one, he's going to have to add a few more elements to his impressive and leaking arsenal.

Remarkably, Nadal has been working on improving his drop shot, a staple of most clay courters. Perhaps more importantly, he has to get more comfortable at the net, because if he can't get comfortable moving forward, winning points will continue to be overly laborious labor and his sore knees might not hold up over the long term.

"The drop shot is important because some time I have point under control and the guy is behind the court and (it would be) easier (to close out points)," said Nadal, who trounced U.S. teen Donald Young 6-1, 6-3 and will face France's Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a 7-6(5), 6-winner over Paul-Henri Mathieu. "Last year I went to net so many times, but to go to net you have to have confidence and I'm trying to find this confidence now."

Nadal is lacking in confidence precisely because he's not sure that he can convince himself to take bigger cracks at the ball in some key matches. At the Australian Open, he was completely overwhelmed by the free-swinging Tsonga in a contest he should have been able to push to the limits. Djokovic was patient and chopped the Frenchman down in the final. Nadal was blinded by his speed and roundhouse hooks.

Last week in Dubai, Nadal was beat up by Andy Roddick, the same guy he stopped in the Indian Wells semifinals last year.

He was indecisive in both matches and at this point is his career, you would expect the Spaniard to be able to impose himself on almost any foe and design workable strategies with his uncle and coach, Toni. But that's not always the case. His stellar defense can at times impede his sporadic offense.

"I need to play good and be more aggressive," Nadal said when asked how he could have turned those matches around. "If I play good, I can play more aggressive. Against Tsonga I played a terrible match. Against Roddick I felt very close. "If I play like I did in the first set against Roddick and with a little more confidence, I can beat everybody."

As Nadal says, he's put up big numbers on all surfaces so there's few reason why he shouldn't be able to put together a full calendar year of brilliant results and finally end the year at No. 1.

Heck, even Federer points to Nadal as the one guy who made him go back to the drawing board.

"Rafa definitely made me improve my game, no doubt," Federer said. "I didn't like to accept it in the very beginning when I started playing him, but he had such a different style of play and unique way to play me that I had to adjust some things in my game that worked against him."

Australian Open champ Djokovic has been saying for two months now that Federer is ripe for a fall, and was joined by Andy Murray in saying that the 20- and 21-year olds are ready to catch him.

"It's a little bit different," Djokovic said. "Looking at the past four years, Roger has been very dominant, especially at these events here. He doesn't have anything to defend, and he's obviously willing to step it up and to play well here. He has a little bit less pressure that we have, that's true. Still, he's No. 1 in the world for a long time ... so he feels it. Roger hasn't won a tournament still this year, and the things are a little bit more interesting this year. You don't have only two players now. You have three, four, five players."

Said Murray, who upset Federer in Dubai and could face him in the Indian Wells quarters: "I don't' know how vulnerable he is. I think there's more guys that think can win against him than in the past. Before not that many guys thought they had a chance again him and he would roll through the first few rounds. There's obviously a better chance of beating someone if you go in with that attitude."

Nadal, who owns an 8-6 record against Federer, has that mental makeup against the Swiss, but he has to get to him in order to show off his nerves of steel, but has frequently failed to do so off clay.

Djokovic and Murray both did that this year, and if Nadal is going to maintain his stature as Federer's obvious heir apparent, he cannot afford to leisurely camp 10 feet behind the baseline on faster surfaces.

At '07 Indian Wells, he took a few more risks, changed his behavior and was hugely successful inside the white stripes. But it doesn't come naturally, like it does to a player like Tsonga. He's just another promising player who wants to succeed Federer. It's up to Nadal to beat he, Djokovic and Murray to the punch.

"I have to push myself," Nadal said. I feel more comfortable on clay, but I going to try my best to continue being in the top position. I always think about how to play good and my goal is always the ranking. I know if I want to reach my goals I have to play very good in important tournaments. That's it."