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Draw analysis: Wimbledon is wide open now

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Updated Jun 27, 2009 11:19 PM ET
     
 
The installation of a retractable roof at the All England Club has removed the variable of rain from Centre Court at Wimbledon. Still, there are still many significant questions to be answered during the fortnight at The Championships. With Rafael Nadal unable to play, is Roger Federer a shoe-in to win his record-setting 15th Grand Slam title? Can Andy Murray end decades of suffering for British tennis fans with a championship run? Can anyone deny Venus Williams' quest for a third consecutive title in London? Will Dinara Safina suffer another monumental meltdown? Let's dissect the draws:

Men's top half — Del Potro moves up

After struggling in a pair of exhibitions with Lleyton Hewitt and Stanislas Wawrinka in London, Nadal decided that he was not physically capable of defending his Wimbledon crown because of his knee injuries. With the top seed sidelined, fifth-seeded Juan Martin Del Potro was moved from the bottom half of the draw, replacing Nadal on the top line in an opening-round match with Arnaud Clement. Del Potro could face '02 Wimbledon champion Hewitt in an intriguing second-round match. The Argentine has lost in the second round in his two previous appearances at The Championships but demonstrated in his semifinal loss to Federer at Roland Garros that he has the game to contend for a Grand Slam championship.

Murray's big chance?

Nadal's absence also creates a major opportunity for Murray in the top half of the draw. A year ago, Murray was poised to move into the top 10 in the rankings and reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals. This year, the Scot comes to London ranked No. 3 in the world, fresh off winning his first singles title on a grass court at Queen's Club — without dropping a set.
Murray could be be tested as he tries to emerge from this half of the draw. He could take on Ernests Gulbis in the second round and faces a potential quarterfinal match against 10th-seed Fernando Gonzalez, who defeated Murray in the quarterfinals of the French Open. Still, look for Murray to take on sixth-seed Andy Roddick in the semifinals. The American reached consecutive Wimbledon finals in 2004 and 2005 and has been playing with renewed confidence in 2009. Roddick has been slowed by an ankle injury that forced him to retire at Queen's Club. If his mobility is not limited by the injury, Roddick's huge serve should be enough to carry to carry him to the semis.

Men's bottom half — Federer's turf

Federer will be trying to be make history in London by winning a record-setting 15th major championship and sixth Wimbledon title in seven years. With Nadal out of the equation, the Swiss star clearly won't be intimidated by anyone else left in the field. Before falling to Nadal in the championship match last year, Federer's last loss in London came in 2002. Federer takes on Yen-Hsun Lu in his first-round match and could see Robin Soderling in the fourth round in a rematch of the Roland Garros singles final. If the seedings hold, Federer's potential opponents in the quarterfinals are seventh-seed Fernando Verdasco or the No. 9 seed, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. While Soderling's brilliant performance demonstrated once more that anything is possible on a tennis court, it's unlikely that Federer will allow the chance of a historic win to elude him.

Can Djokovic pose a challenge?

Will Novak Djokovic be able to raise his play enough to take on Federer in the semifinals? The Serbian lost to Tommy Haas in the championship match in Halle and will be looking for some Grand Slam redemption in London. Djokovic had to retire in his Australian Open quarterfinal match with Roddick because of heat exhaustion and lost in the third round at the French Open. The No. 4 seed may have to get past Marin Cilic — who reached the fourth round at Wimbledon last year — or James Blake to advance out of this portion of the draw. Blake lost to Murray in the singles final of the AEGON Championships, but the American has never reached the semifinals at a Grand Slam event.

Women's top half — Venus rising

Dinara Safina may be the top seed, but third-seed Venus Williams is the player to beat. The two-time defending champion is focused on winning her sixth Wimbledon championship. Few players can match Williams' smooth footwork on grass courts and her forehand provides an overpowering weapon. Safina's emotional collapse in Paris was the latest reminder that she does not have the mental tenacity to match her outstanding physical skills. Safina could have the chance to show that she learned something from her recent meltdown in a potential quarterfinal match against the woman she lost to in the French Open final — Svetlana Kuznetsova.
Among the other players to watch in this half of the women's draw is ninth-seed Caroline Wozniacki, who is still looking for a breakthrough performance at a Grand Slam tournament and is a former Wimbledon junior champion. Sixth-seed Jelena Jankovic is another player to watch, though she has never advanced past the fourth round at the All-England Club. Jankovic's countrywoman, Ana Ivanovic, is coming off an opening-round loss at Eastbourne and recently changed coaches.

Women's bottom half — Sister act?

Television executives had to be smiling when the draw positioned Serena and Venus Williams in different halves creating the possibility of another all-Williams final in London. If Serena is going to hold up her end of the bargain, she may have to defeat Maria Sharapova along the way. The 2004 Wimbledon champion is seeded 24th and played well after months of inactivity because of her shoulder injury, advancing to the quarterfinals at Roland Garros. Eighth-seed Victoria Azarenka is also in Serena's quarter of the draw. Azarenka made a splash with her win earlier this year at Key Biscayne, rolling past Williams in straight sets. If the seedings hold, Serena could take on fourth-seeded Elena Dementieva in the semifinals.

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