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Hard to pick out any man as '10's major player

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Matt Cronin

Matt Cronin is a senior editor at Inside Tennis magazine and the co-owner of the award-winning TennisReporters.net.

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Updated Dec 1, 2009 12:44 PM ET
     
 
Nikolay Davydenko's final-round, 6-3, 6-4 knockout of U.S. Open champion Juan Martin del Potro at the ATP World Tour Finals shows two things: Davydenko has finally come of age as a Grand Slam contender, and 2010 will be a dogfight for the year-end No. 1 ranking, as none of the Big Four or the rest of the top 10 showed enough resiliency during the fall to prove they are capable of dominating the tour next year. Take top-ranked Roger Federer, who came off perhaps his most satisfying season by winning the one major that eluded him — the French Open — and broke all-time great Pete Sampras' record for the most majors won with his 15th Grand Slam title at Wimbledon. Though Federer is more than pleased he has begun to figure out one of his nemeses, Andy Murray, and showed the young Scot that in an authoritative round-robin victory at London's O2 Arena, he couldn't be too pleased that he was overpowered by his U.S. Open conqueror, del Potro, in the third set of their ATP finals clash or that he fell to Davydenko for the first time in 13 meetings in the semis. Perhaps once the great Swiss secured the top spot early on in the tournament, he felt he had little to play for outside of pride, but if that's the case, what's going to motivate him in 2010? He's now the father of two twin girls and while that can be seen as a positive distraction, there's no way he's going to be able to lock in mentally as he used to. Babies just don't allow that from active parents. Federer has won every major and every other tournament that means a great deal to him, so other than attempting to lead his nation to its first Davis Cup trophy, the only things that remain that will put fire in his belly are to turn around his rivalry against No. 2 Rafael Nadal (his 7-13 record against his great rival is the one black mark in his stellar career) and to hold off the outspoken younger set for one more year and show it that even in the early twilight of his career, he can still fight his way past the youngsters. But that might be not enough motivation to reach four major finals as he did in 2009, and it's entirely possible the world has seen the last of Federer playing consistently great tennis. Occasional rousing performances from the 28-year-old are more probable. In London, former No. 1 Nadal showed just how far he is from his Australian Open-winning form, failing to win a set in three matches as he was pummeled by his French Open vanquisher Robin Soderling once again and was run ragged by Davydenko and Novak Djokovic. The Spaniard must be cut some slack — he missed a substantial portion of the summer and early fall with knee and abdominal injuries — but it's entirely possible this extremely physical player may never again be able to impose the same relentless style that has brought him six Grand Slam titles, as his aching body simply won't allow it over the long haul. Nadal is not only clearly lacking in confidence, but he is also hitting way too short, is often predictable and, unlike the smaller Davydenko, has yet to develop a threatening first serve. If he's to seize the No. 1 ranking back in 2010, Nadal is going to have to find a way to transition his game into more of a quick-strike attack where he's not forced to play 10 balls to win every point. The third-ranked Djokovic had a terrific fall before London, but all but cashed in his chips early on in the event, saying he was worn down after such a long season. While the Serbian has to be pleased that, after a shaky summer, he snared three fall crowns and scored wins over Federer and Nadal, he has to find a way to pace himself better and yank himself out of defensive postures at the majors. The 2008 Aussie Open champion is more than capable of winning another Slam, but not if he continues to play passively when it's outright aggression that is being demanded of him. Murray had the most disappointing event of the so-called Big Four (del Potro certainly has made the group a Big Five). Though Murray did manage to face down del Potro and won a spectacular three-setter over Fernando Verdasco, he went down meekly, 6-1, in the third set to Federer, which is why it was the Argentine, not Murray, who moved into the semifinals based on a games won percentage. If Murray had competed better against Federer, he would have had the chance to allow the gigantic London crowds to attempt to lift him on their shoulders and carry him to the title. Instead, Murray — who technically looks the part of a Grand Slam champion to be — realistically has to be disappointed in a season when he came up short in the five biggest events. He came into his Wimbledon semi against Andy Roddick as the favorite and was overpowered, and the same fate awaited him in the fourth round of the U.S. Open against Marin Cilic, where he was lacking in direction. Murray doesn't have to be a huge ball striker to win matches, but if he's going to grab his first major in 2010, he has to improve his second serve and do more damage with his forehand. Despite his loss to Davydenko in the ATP finals, del Potro earned his stripes during the week and showed he's almost completely recovered from his post-U.S. Open mental exhaustion. He scored gutsy wins over Federer and Soderling en route to the final, not only dictating with his huge serve and forehand, but also playing standout defense for a 6-foot-6 guy. The 21-year-old's net game remains atrocious, but if he can gradually improve that element of his attack, he'll be capable of contending for every major crown next year and will threaten for No. 1. The veteran Swede Soderling also showed some fight in London, even if his movement and strategy is limited. If he can stay healthy, he should be able to prove next season that 2009 wasn't just a one off. The lefty Spaniard Verdasco fought quite well, too, taking all of his opponents to three sets, but he fell short each time and is still lacking a little mental stability. Despite qualifying for the event, Roddick was forced to pull out with a knee injury that has bothered him all fall. Roddick's incredible effort in the Wimbledon final in a loss against Federer was certainly the highlight of many fans' year, but he by no means takes losses lightly and doesn't want to end his career as a one-Slam wonder. Roddick has improved a good deal, but del Potro proved himself to be a better player last summer, and there's a few other talented youngsters rising, too. The 27-year-old Roddick's window of opportunity to grab another Slam will likely close after 2011, so he'll have to make a major push next season. And what of Davydenko, the quiet Russian veteran who at times during his career seemed content to play at a level just below the big boys? But not last week in London, where the stealthy mover took out Nadal, Federer and del Potro — the trio that currently holds all four Grand Slam titles. That doesn't happen very often, and Davydenko showed that on a quick court where he can keep the ball low and use his rapid feet and hands to his advantage, that he's extremely dangerous. Davydenko doesn't fear the hard-hitting baseline rally, has a keen eye during his return games and has improved his first serve and volley a great deal. He was largely forgotten during the beginning of the year as he was bothered by a foot injury, but he has been more than respectable since he began to fully heal in July, winning five titles. With his balding head and a super thin frame, he may not look the part of a potential Grand Slam champion, but he has beaten every significant player and seems much more at ease on the big stage now, laughing it up with the packed crowd after his title run. The 28-year-old may not be everyone's sexy pick to win the 2010 Australian Open, but no one in the London locker room is taking him for granted anymore. "He's very fast," del Potro said. "He plays like PlayStation. He runs down everything. It is very difficult to hit winners (against him). But I think he is a great champion. Nobody knows how we can beat him."

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