Current Video:Pick Nation: Week 9 NFL Picks|
The experts at Pick Nation make their Week 9 NFL selections. Find out who you should take when the Ravens face the Bengals, plus more picks.
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
Lewis showed you how to make money general manager Elsa Portillo. Works MSNBC. And experience to the -- We're creating our. You're number one source career. Two weekends ago we saw eight road favorites go seven and went straight up and against the spread averaged winning margin 26 points -- game. But this being in the NFL you knew that that type of prosperity for the -- wasn't gonna last. So naturally Atlanta we get it by double digit underdog though born in one again spread one of them winning outright -- Carolina shot Arizona. I've won I'm out DiMarco. Long with may be good in every single Sunday wrap this football season we're here with our pregame show as we break and he gains from a gambling perspective. Today we're gonna break down the Baltimore Cincinnati knowing -- Miami -- And later in the -- We're gonna take a few minutes to review some of our favorite NFL proposition place. As we approach the playoffs and the second half of the season. All of the dust finally have them -- number eight the dogs last weekend went eight and five ATS overall. One week after that favorites and covered nine and a thirteen games. But that the cyclical nature of the NFL guys in weeks five and six the dogs went seventeen and eleven again right. And we ran in for the favorites went 119. Bottom line on the year the favorites are just six games over 561. And that the pot and wrote and surprisingly. Little bit better 62 and 548 games over the 500 mark. But you know -- the most overwhelming money maker continues to be straight up winner. And what I mean by that is if you just -- the straight up winner of the game. They cover the Brett last week ten and three again -- on the season. 97. And nineteen year to date again right 97 in nineteen that's just amazing I mean a twelve -- that turned up. I think this team's gonna win -- Cashman and beg him he's right in -- I I mean but it has been phenomenal thing. Now the first and we're gonna break down today is Baltimore Cincinnati. Course out Baltimore the like road favorite here angles coming off the pine of course they won the first meeting. 1714. As the big road dog. What do you think can match repeat itself. I remember the first time they played actually I had -- -- taking him away and the show here at repay. Even eight point favorites at but the angle would come back at the end old is -- Palmer little backdoor cover -- turned out to win the game outright. Fanatic come back around to. In in -- and you can be sure of one thing the Ravens who got their swagger back completely destroying. The -- the -- Broncos last week. Are gonna bring the noise remember football. It's a violent sport and these Ravens are among the most violent team in the league. And look at how I like that -- Palmer doin' good this year he's healthy he's pass in the ball well but I gotta give the edge to tackle was deemed to be haven't or Pro Bowl here here in this -- year look. Here comes the warnings -- the disclaimer this is not actual relief for me it just the three pick. But I like the Baltimore Ravens here on the suggest you abide down the hall what you get it at 33 and a half bite down get a little insurance. While I of course was on the wrong side of the matchup in the first meeting last week though I'd like Baltimore a lot when -- Took care of business and really -- Denver totally dominated the Broncos. You know on the first meeting between these two. Cincinnati at solely control everything in 1922 to twelve or an advantage. 403. Total yards for 257 for Baltimore Cedric Benson had a monster game 120 yards rushing. Against a Baltimore team that does not allow 100 guard running back. But Carson Palmer's been red hot my -- games averaging 235 yards a game ten -- campaign has. And he has got an out in the offensive line protection here he's only been act once. Every in nineteen pass attempts. The ground game behind their name offensive line averaging four point three yards per carry but I think the most important thing about -- and -- the team as opposed to what has happened to them -- the couple years. This your third down completion -- 42%. Conversions. So I've gotta differ with you here I. Earlier in the week I first looked at the line and I thought Baltimore way to go. But as the week progressed I'm willing like 92 when -- team out right. So I'm gonna they'd buy up they hit point 23 and a half here and go with Cincinnati here's one of those cute little to testicle transit you've got to take in at. Into account here you know the underdog has covered in every single game. This year for the ankles and I think really last week the Ravens caught Denver. Coming off a buying Baltimore was in a must win situation having lost -- -- their season was a day they were playing at home. And I think Denver was an overrated team that's one -- to snag when it out right. If you make good points and I definitely real. In order the Ravens to win the game they're gonna have to play very strong. But very smart no more stupid penalties rough guys up ending plays ending drives that turned into court and -- -- -- and they played I think that was all won the big they're backing when that's right because on the last drive Cincinnati which led to their game winning touchdown. Three costly penalties on committed -- third down right that's what killed at that dominant game but again -- -- ones sign -- the other more money you know bookie this week. And -- out or vote and the by the hip point accordingly in this one. Now next week heads of the AFC east where New England rational abide by one out of eight weeks ago. Host Miami. Big favorite or the Patriots in this one or five and 18 yes author. By. You know they've -- -- attempt at two weeks before -- and Tom Brady. Well after a start the season Tom Brady and it looked like the Tom Brady green knee surgery. 8% completions 288. Yard average thirteenth -- for only two interceptions and a spot in and week. He is taking on the number one. And the only. And Miami secondary has to rookie quarterbacks Miami very fortunate to be last week I mean they were totally outplayed you look at the match -- They had 100 imports hold your head off returns remembered that's what can't -- in the game like again. -- Jets had three and 78 total yards in that contest and Chad Henne. Last week at New York it was a -- -- are twelve for 2112. Yards and was sacked five times by the Jets and now this week. He's gonna take on the number five. In the lake. I'm more than willing to -- the big point with that. New England here because I think Miami was extremely fortunate to even win that game we -- New York. Well you know you gotta love Belichick coming off a bye week with an extra week to prepare he's probably the best in the -- that. Separate me be part Al and ran -- I let me at the Patriot. Probably gonna win this game but if you want to know that. You can watch Chris -- gap to. The reason why you watch me now is find out who will cover I will the pay it covered the eleven point spread. I'd say no way the Dolphins they wanted to New York hot -- environment won that game. Very impressive to me now they come into New England which he treated them well in the past it actually against the red and I think they don't win this game but they get the -- My tea I saw Mark Sanchez rookie quarterback for the Jets carve up that secondary and he can't. We're on the different -- this -- we will see next week and guys. We're gonna take a short break here and when we come back you and I are going to be talking about. Some of our favorite NFL proposition plays as we approach the second. Sorry you can't beat green and guys that got an amazing for all appropriate today. I've -- -- out DiMarco general manager the world's largest sports handicapping website that nation dot com. Leading sports handicap how would you like to get their way. Murray Britain three days today tomorrow and the next day. Sorry for three days the plays of -- -- In -- O'Brien -- ice apparently happened. All six handicapping experts -- nation. Our viewers -- for the next three days just go to picnics and dot com click on the jury three day trial and that's. That's all you got to do guys. All of their way for three days or worry at it nascent dot com and when I -- separate. I mean it's. We are back out of market here -- -- -- -- section of the -- -- like he would take a break from analyze and some games and we got two more games we're gonna break and -- moment. On the Giants Chargers and Colts Texans but now. One take a couple of minutes and talk about proposition plays and you know I think that one of the aches and a lot of -- making is they only look at proposition play when the Super Bowl -- rolls around that date. And US for a book maker you know why a lot of guys ignore proposition place right well. I don't wanna keep their money up all yearlong you know and there's a difference between proposition that early in future. Because you know futures -- batting all yearlong propositions come out on the day of the game and the ball is David that -- is -- different will be call Mickey now that. On the -- probable but future batting you know a lot of guys don't take advantage of it because they don't wanna leave you know that money up lightly rather played every week. And really big event -- there's a lot of opportunity. And I look at future propositions I mean there -- up by a fight when you go to sports book teachers are under propositions. But I look at futures like it's like investing and indeed make paying off six months and the road. Now I agree that future at the beginning of the season are ridiculous to a larger and it. Because you really don't have a feeling for -- -- Out he's in his gonna play out true you get more advantageous odd. But the risk is much higher but here we are the season's midpoint. The odds are lower but you're still playing with our money future place meaning all these are great underdog so. We've taken some of our paper categories and we've got our advice on where we would go and the first one. League MVP. And their poor guy here that we kind of isolated that we like talk about her up would be -- talk about Drew Brees Saints undefeated. Nobody's getting more press right now and -- and Drew -- that is a guy for NFL MVP. To -- you've got. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady the forgotten duo almost lost 300 and then there's that guy up -- -- Plus 500. I mean these two -- aren't organized one of that quartet is going to be the NFL and the -- I really like. -- the make the impact that he's made I think that is what -- MVP is it funny that all the guys were talking about our quarterbacks because at the end of the day. They're the ones that lead the team they're the leaders and the the most obvious choice for MVP and and here's the thing with the MVP vote I don't think you have to be. The winning quarterback of the Super Bowl team you don't have to reach the Super Bowl it's a crack at the publicity you're gonna get and Brett are. By virtue of beating the Packers twice a season by virtue of being on National -- so much and by -- coming out of retirement basically. And having to break season and everyone doubted him. He hit without a doubt remains the leading candidate to be the MVP is a total collapse. Like when he did the last -- we at least he's because of injury and you're getting the most money from a plus I want exactly to make. That's where my money would be in terms of the MVP candidate -- another. I think that when you look at this place. It doesn't matter that he get the ball out. But pavlik. And I think that our and the Vikings do -- oh absolutely with one loss in the season at a locally. Now next category. Top odds to win the and a date now the fourteen that we've taken a look at here are the Vikings -- plus it's money that ain't a class a dollar hit me. The Cowboys plus 800 Eagles plus 700 now a lot. With the Cowboys and Eagles and on the game on today's game at a locally. But you look at other to the Saints and the Vikings. And -- dollar fifty the Vikings to twenty. Personally I think you know between the -- and need one of those three teams and I think the Vikings have made with the saint. Mean I track. But he didn't say the -- and you look at their schedule they really only three top teams left and really just New England. Again I don't really that's -- yet -- have such a favorable schedule and you're still getting the favorite at plus money. And the great thing about that is actually get closer to the play -- And to the super ball what happens is is threes and and New Orleans is gonna be big -- so you have to wonderfully Abacha would which means in north could wind up winning the game which you could lose your bet. When you got them to win the N eight you need them to win the game. That's going to be a big advantage come to stretch -- new Portland and NN BA have seen much more competitive number. You've got the Broncos are just coming -- a person after opening six now. Plus 500 but COLT broke a quiet start your right plus 220. Ravens. They've gone down. They're now plus 700 although I think a little bit about -- the rate I -- think a tool -- a lot will determine what happens with their -- team Cincinnati today sometimes it marked a better future right after it warm because we know we get value in the line. Exactly argue that the Patriot. Quietly under the radar but they'll cost -- money. And -- the defending Super Bowl champions. Re I think the big value on the cart right that you needed and the game that arena at one. -- take an adult law I mean my money here is on the Colts plus 220 and you're -- fifty because I just don't really believe the Patriots at would take offensively. I don't with the Broncos for real. And ironically or -- Broncos are playing tomorrow night. But I'd love I agree I'd like to call on what you're defending -- -- -- -- cultural -- dark or three weeks I mention that on the show it. With 31 at that time. At 228. I think a little bit of embarrassment to have them let and the Steelers I think the rating -- dealers that's -- like it was a plus. A quick commercial break and come back talk about a Super Bowl futures. He Boone heal the world -- sports handicapping web site. Pick nation back I'm wanna take a minute talking about me that mine I like playing in May take it from me. Only one hold out that captors -- -- Vegas at a -- all do. Not at pelican you know it wonderful down now I may not get it I'd like. -- because one month. It may not top we're gonna elect one lucky winner or even a pre IP I -- -- weekend getaway. At the golden -- old Al that lucky winner at high roller week -- PM OR -- -- from the airport VIP jacket. And VIP into the -- ground zero only at the golden nugget. All rate and here's the bad part -- content. Absolutely read and there no purchase very at a picnic and dot com click on the VIP weekend getaway Lee. In the top right corner and your email address and your info. And you can be the next lucky winner were given away -- three arrows weekend once a month don't know. -- little large a -- made it great. Only at the golden -- We are back and now the big odds to. Win the Super Bowl let's run these Emporia he's an eighteen that we think at the best chance here the Broncos are plus 1500. The Colts plus worked at the -- plus 400 Patriot sport that the the saint plus 400 the viewers the defending champs plus 700. And the Eagles plus 1400. I look at this and I'm looking at. You were to repeat again at plus 700 I like them I like Saints 400 and I like yeah. I think the Colts have worked in the Vikings have a 400 they would be Mike quartet my favorite for the great thing about the dealers -- plus 700 is that they get the ball huge edge opportunity with the other -- I really liked it it -- while have a head down the road all of the bigger the number the better. Yeah exactly and them and you know the viewers get -- the Super -- you know they're gonna be favored because you've got the defending -- back and -- you've got another chance to -- and Nadal versus the point spread because you know you've got the favorite but you've got -- money on both -- exactly so that the game that I would -- team that I would isolate. I don't think Eagles the Patriots the Broncos no way. I don't think they win it. You know the Vikings -- You know I don't bet against Brett Favre to walk -- guy I agree with that the Titans are plain wrong got a real shot Broncos. Playing great this year come back Cinderella story not gonna be anywhere near comparable now and the -- I don't think they have the running game I don't think you've won a Super Bowl on the ball effectively they can't run the ball they would have to get healthy and get the quick. That can't compete the call yet and although they played well defensively this year -- have a dominating defense in that season. And the Arizona Cardinals at the Louis Cardinals from years ago Rams went Kurt Warner was directing the fan on earth. You just don't win offensively in Super Bowl the -- -- we're all a case battle do with our future plays and one thing you know at a reservist probably one of the biggest questions we -- we can't we can't. Is about your crew and first of an UF grammar book maker for twenty some years and of course the creator in the pot around and father -- of the off -- sports book industries. -- your accent -- you're not a handicap on the handicap you're -- in -- but you really place -- on your sources in your contact. They don't all your years as a book maker so why don't talk for just a minute about some of those crew that you rely on and how you. Get your formation get your play -- -- what I. From Peyton -- I think people that on. I played well we have a background role in -- -- the company are right it was -- you'll onboard. If your lot you are complete that warm went ahead we picked up what the handicapped in the country we put them together on one night. That was our as the years went on we had no idea and the idea was look. I've been around to his 25 years pie in New York or game business -- -- -- -- where that there and up player. Accrue a war that I don't know and don't have contact with whether they've bet with me back in the day or actually work for me an -- working for a big organization. Out there from white -- so with -- I've. -- -- Mike crews are we my horses I call him -- -- -- everybody that how I am but but the truth is. Streak eat and they wouldn't lose just like you let beat you with me in the middle. I'm able to look at them monitor them at. Only when they're hot the first time ever relieve these plays. That I've ever been released to the public or to the public and now over the last three years we'll look at that probably up close at thirteen hundred times in profit in football loan. Let alone close the 2000 you don't -- a profit in all -- The ball in the last three years or hitting close at odds that in the paper that I mean it's been won the all. Right and and another thing to point out that did not only comes from your sources and background but with nearly bother I mean these are on. Reliable contact not that -- go back I'm sure. Forty of the year sure absolutely actually -- like the free old wise guys these are guys might -- it at eagle ray way wit and booked their back. So he knows them thirty years obvious that contact was on to me when that time is right. Apply at one and one funny thing though that you won and you once wrote back and at me right back to a restaurant and we put on the web site. Like metallic parts outright there's not a bunch of guys running around and and Silicon Valley which -- to say hey we're the calorie cards out these nicknames that I give these people I give them that nickname that we can track them and the customers can know they are. I keep your real name you know wouldn't last too long. Exactly there is something about being the -- and our business. Are they are hopefully that -- you'll understand. Where like for example when we pick a direct connection I'd pay two weeks in active cashed in with two being. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- One of the guys that -- me was my head clerk at the time he -- -- head clerk of the top or or play. Can't mentioning me wouldn't want them to know what I'm doing but every time a wise guy comes in and double game you know. On the Spurs want to know at my car cameras -- the active. Exactly and that's the type -- it from me again and that type of contact you can bring that element -- this. Never been done the war with online handicapping every other night every other person -- to handicap with their own opinion with me I it would give my own opinion on the show when it comes to a special relief. That's gonna be released from someone whose opinion I wrote back -- whose opinion is is way ahead of your man on the may change. Exactly a -- do it. Listen guys we got two more games to break down. We're gonna take a look at the Colts Texans and the Giants Chargers will be back -- Yeah. We are back Al DiMarco here along to keep -- heading into the home stretch to more games to run down first up. Indianapolis. At home again. The red hot Houston Texans last week here on the show I told you the Colts would struggle when hosting the 49ers I was wrong I was wrong I just wanted to get an opportunity there. I own a team next right and that that's exactly what happened Indianapolis lucky to remain undefeated barely escaping and company team fourteen win. It has the red hot -- -- squad. And feeling on the Internet. Well you know got to beat the big gains in -- in -- I -- they're out to a five and three are at a time and their confidence is leaning look Peyton Manning coming off a poor showing last week at 49ers. They'll ever get it going in that one. And barely got the win well. Unlike and ran the -- and have no problem putting points on the board I'd put them on a budget as good as Manning's been for the call. Tech quarterback Matt got exactly thrown for more yards. For more touchdowns than Manning so far this season the -- not very good at running the ball and that means one thing. And one thing only to -- and Peyton Manning is gonna drop bombs on his defense so much they ought to show that game on him and and when you look at the fact that they're banged up and their secondary. Did you intact and are not gonna have a problem playing catch up through the air what I'm not gonna do this time. It all into that game bookmakers trap I've found the last week because when regular players do what it's one thing. But when -- -- book maker pulled into -- bookmakers trap that's like getting hired year old applied and you just can't do it on the lay in off the I don't with a -- back. Watched both these teams go up and down the field I think his game -- got over 48 written all over. The interesting thing right right around 48 and you know that's interesting because. The last seven meetings have easily gone over that total 48 and you go back eight meetings ago it -- right on 480. Definitely dependent he has gone to go high in one. And the oddsmakers have posted a rather low total because Indianapolis really isn't scoring at will that you're coming off -- low scoring game. And nickel defense is played much better this year than in past years ago. I I mean I can probably seen the over here but I I've gotta be honest with you -- I'd like the Colts in this game playing at home. And for a couple reasons I'm because I'm a believer. And the Indianapolis defense and you know Peyton Manning he's owned the Texans born square 33 touchdown -- Pie in are after 33 to five ratio in his career against you and and Manning received outstanding protection behind an Indianapolis opens -- he's been sacked five times three of them came against San Francisco last week. -- and only eleven sacks -- entire season I don't see them getting them. And fruit and only at 81 point one week for Francisco. But you know the Colt -- won again bread and the next finding. An actor they've been held eighteen points -- last. And -- Texans are going to be mine -- top two tight ends one of which has forty catches. Unable to -- one top ten defense this year that was and we number one -- -- hope to did you remember what Rex Weinstein and did them. And the call one's sixteen and -- straight up in the regular season how. I think the price is actually a little low because of the way the Colts struggled this week I think we're getting them -- value plus when you consider the way Houston played. So I white with you. Are you with -- Nina. I tend to agree with you I think a couple of things there are active number one I think that care all the look at. You know in two big games coming up new England and Baltimore. And this team is definitely. The -- -- at 88 or are so they'd better bring their eight game if they do that -- -- winning car. The world on the you're gonna be overcome a hot but the favored and went the other route for you in the -- -- quality out what rent very reassuring. Now are -- final game the suddenly slumping Giants losers of three in a row hosting the Chargers. Who won ten straight against a -- AFC west cupcake yet he and the Raiders. Again here -- the Giants are very small home favorite. You know bottom line here is giant has happened it played any -- -- adoring their three game skid. Allowing opponents to complete 67 for another 269 yards averaged in that stretch giving up eight touchdowns. One interception haven't generated much of a -- In that stretch. And offensively Eli Manning has released struggling in the three game losing streak he's only completed 50% of -- three touchdowns -- interceptions. But this is San Diego Chargers defense just isn't the Philadelphia Eagles defense are playing okay. This is -- your defense has allowed 78 Cooper and completions that's one of the worst figures in the NFL seven touchdowns. -- has one interception when they they don't like -- Joe Flacco. -- -- -- Berber and Kyle Orton leaning against cupcakes they can -- to Marcus Russell against top notch quarterback they can't stop anybody. They ought to get Brandon Jacobs involved in the grounding early here because San Diego in the seventh in the league at stopping the run. Giving up four point 27 at four point two yards per carry. And you know in terms technical difference. The team in the ring and seven and again and so I think that you got a late appoint at this cheap price with a giant in the and and rebounds. I mean Tom -- one's gonna start on the heat they lose corner route yeah I don't remember when that guy when this Giants team lost four games in Iraq why can titlist on the law -- in a -- was back in 2006 -- been -- -- You know this game is as close to a loser leave town match and get in the and -- -- you lose this game I think you pack your bags -- all all I'm. And it needs to be gained here you know I feel like I've been in that final three weeks here that but he really needs to -- -- at the goodness. And the England team is off the -- That secondary couldn't cup rugby league with a blanket and that's going to be great news for the giant Rivers have an easy time to but I think that ultimately as. Game wears on the giant companies and great at. Anger and disappointment over the way they played the last three weeks it's gonna get the -- -- the legal team I think for the very last time. Back Big Blue here I think they -- up and finally come and play the right game. I agree with honor and there I think this is a big game for the -- I think they went in the blowout. And I think that this is among women agree with you -- -- time to go ahead with a giant. So we're both -- an agreement with the Giants but that's about it we don't agree on here much here other than the weather. I mean I like the Bengals you're on the Ravens we both agree accordingly we buy up or by downing a point. In nineteen Miami New England you're on the Dolphins I think new England's gonna pummel Miami. Here in their second straight road I'm going to lay the points on the Patriots. Are -- in Indianapolis we have. Difference of opinion here you. Like I like Indianapolis but I like over the play right you like the over 48 I'm going to go and in light of nine with Indianapolis as I think that's a pretty cheap price. For a team that's just been red hot this is good to eighteen. Oh that's right yeah and what we mean of course take Indianapolis down to three using the six point and you take that total down -- 42 and then -- the over enacting with those two. Prolific offenses. That'll do it today don't -- remember you can get all the sports odds injuries weather reports more repay and -- in the -- Everything you need to be winner today on line -- kept -- -- was Steve and I. Rick and the Steelers on Monday night at that was.