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The experts at Pick Nation get you ready for Week 6 in the NFL with their picks.
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-- winners don't. Always showed you. That you Elsa -- An experience to the table. One source for. Five -- stamina NFL season and for five straight weeks the underdog so ruled the route who -- A guy to hit out DiMarco we -- along with Steve Goodman and this is picked nation report where every single Sunday. We break down all your pro football action from a point spread perspective and as I always say guys. When adults are barking two things are happening in its both. Both bad news as far as you the player is concerned because sports books in Vegas or winning a ton of money. And gamblers are generally losing their shirt and Steve. It is just been a phenomenal one I saw this last year after the first two weeks where the dogs went on a nice 45 week run. But this has been consistent. Pummeling. The players out there with these dogs coming through so far last week. The -- five and nine against the spread so far this you're the favorites are 2647. And three. I mean within five weeks of games and you were 21 games under 500 there's no way anybody's making money here. Not a good time to be laying the wood and we talked about a couple weeks ago everybody would be shifting their stop. Doesn't seem like anybody has it time to share your style now if you're the type handicap here that only looks for favorite it's time to start spotting underdogs because the trend is here a day. Well I'm matter of fact we're gonna have one of those typing and campers in the second half hour or show. Chuck O'Brien who is not only off to a fifteen into NFL start. But I always joke about shocked that he's a contrarian handicap or against the public exactly against the public and that's where he's made his money this season I believed. He has eleven and one with his underdog place fifteen into overall. And I mean that's really a phenomenal number one you think about it and yet they are still something to be said about. You know favorites can be sub 500 all season long but you only need one favorite if you can find that one favored on the part. And let's face it I think handicap for sports services players are like you all gravitate toward the favorites because it's basic human nature we all. Lean toward looking at schemes and immediately saying hey I think this team can cover the spread the -- so many point. Yeah you know the beginning of the show we always talk about. Some of the things that -- tempers do that they shouldn't and editors do they shouldn't one of things that really pissed me off. Is that you know I handicap rule losing game but then after the game they'll say. Always good he was the right side on any type something there's only one right side and one wrong side the right side is the winner and the wrong side is the loser period I don't care if your team looked like -- played the better game I don't care who was better prepared better coach -- was some fluke at the end of the game that lost the game for you. The right side of the dean is it is the side that covers. Period I don't like the eighties pain campers always say after the woods all you could tell I had the right -- digging even though we lost that bowl. How absolutely that's and I've been in this business for 25 years and one of my favorite things I hear gamblers and handicap present sports service scouts all like saying is that. You know they try to rationalize the loser. You're right it's no such thing as a good loser there are losers or winners I don't care every loser is a bad loser I have the -- money. At the sports book window it's a bad day it's a bad game it's a bad pick and it's a loser and that's the bottom line. As they just noted I've been in this business for 25 years as professional sports handicap or started off as a sports reporter so. -- kind of perspective where you know having been in the locker room covering pro and college teams. That's how I approach games I'm not one of these guys it's big on computer technical trends and all that BS Steve on the other hand. Former book maker the guy who literally created the offshore sports book industry as you know what today. He boring to totally different perspective and that's why -- show was so unique on breaking down gains from my viewpoint he's got his and Steve over the years you've certainly seen. How players gravitate toward the favorites -- You as a former book maker years ago probably made a fortune one dogs went on these incredible runs like they are right now early in the season. I used to be back when I was a book maker back in the day we would automatically shape all -- because we knew the customers we're gonna come and now with the global line customers seeing the line everywhere. Bookmakers have to be a little bit more careful with the way -- -- on line but hill you know gamblers are always gonna lean towards the favorite because let's face it. That's usually the better team on paper. Absolutely and I you're gonna always pay that heavier price for the public teams we talked about it many times I don't think a lot of the players out there. Realize that you're always gonna be paying more when your bending games involving the Saints the deal or the Cowboys the Vikings the Jets right now. Because the oddsmakers know that you're willing more than willing to be sucked into playing the favorite. So they're gonna make you pay an extra -- point may be appoint may be an appointment at the -- on the situation. Because they know that's the price you will more than gladly pay. I only have a few those games on the board this week we'll talk about it soon you know the marquee teams that. It seems that the players are you know that that -- that the customers -- just in love with the bettors are in love with these teams teams like the Cowboys you know and that and always you know the bookmakers know this and they are gonna always she'd the lines accordingly because at the end of the day. It's not a contest the bookmakers -- trying to figure out the final score when they come out of the odds one of the biggest misconceptions is they're trying to. Accurately depict what the final war's going to be in that our one true all they're trying to do was bookmakers is try to judge what the public perception of that outcome is going to be and the the -- the line accordingly based on that public perception. Well we are gonna are breaking down all the games here we've got a number of email questions have already common we take the calls as well and then about fifteen minutes we're gonna have the first of two handicap or segments here. As weren't have Trace Adams from -- nation dot com. Available and he's gonna break him three different games and then later in the show we will have chuckle Brian Weis alluded to earlier come on as well. One important thing wanted to tell you right now guys listen. Pick nascent dot com we have got a very unique offer for you you can get my best bets today Steve's latest crew selection in those crews are paid five out of seven the past two weeks. So much easier come on the show when I'm when he got to honestly hasn't ever thought they capital last two weeks -- you know we talked about it you know as as a handicap or just like as a team. You wanna start getting hot right now now's the time you wanna start building momentum in getting hot as a handicap or so the fact that we've been able to do that on the show here is big. And that thing here is that not only do you get my place in Steve's place but the plays of all twelve of the handicap for depict nascent dot com or available for free. All you do is -- psychic nation dot com click on the 31. Day all access pass and you'll instantly within a matter of minutes. Get access for foreign no strings attached. To all the plays of all the handicap purse for today's court. And it's important that I reiterate no strings attached we are 100% on line business there are no salesman or no 800 numbers to call there's nobody it's going to be calling harassing you morning noon and night. You go to this site you sign up for free you get in and access. You're probably gonna get about 500 dollars may be a little more of action if you would take up the singular prices all the handicap or animal altogether. Over 500 hours action for free and why do we do it. What better way to show that eight we're real be weakened Winfrey you look and see that 100% legitimate total transparency. Out there and you're listening to the show or you're watching the show and you're wondering what is it that we do for a living. You come to the nation dot com website he grabbed the all access pass we pull back the curtains or yet and for three we allow you -- you all are paying customers benefit from Malia -- While it's go to our first email question here I am actually yeah. Let's see that is going to be Phil and -- Baltimore Maryland big surprise here he thinks the Ravens look unstoppable. Is that the last time will be able to get points with them this season or the Ravens at New England in this particular contest this weekend. Big revenge game for the New England Patriots -- remember what happened to them -- you're at home. In the playoffs they were threatening a point favorite and I mean the Ravens just destroyed them that -- fourteen enacting couldn't stop the run I mean it was a blowout in the opening. Gone on not -- I'm content used here by the way he raises this question. I do remember it was just two weeks ago the Ravens didn't exactly look unstoppable -- -- blow anybody out that's exactly half representing them last week yes suddenly they while out the Denver Broncos up seventeen nothing in cruise to the seventeen point win and now suddenly there on stop global. Your thoughts on this game I I find this game by the way of a very very typical one handicap. And you hit me up to look like a soccer here because I really agree with the general public I mean I gotta be honest I think that they got the wrong favorite in this game. The New England locker room has got to be more like probably spot now than ever without Randy Moss and -- diva like tactics but their actual offense. Is way less potent the whole dynamic changes when the deep threat of Moss is eliminated. And in the Ravens on the other hand I don't know how they got that killer look in their rising and they look crazy. And -- though is so happy with -- -- new you know receivers and his whole new offensive strategy I think he looks great. I think the team looks great the only thing that worries me in this game is that I like this seeing so much is that that's only thing that bothers me other than that I say the Ravens go to sleep. You know it's interesting in terms of the dynamic of the New England offense how it's gonna change now. Are you don't have Randy Moss to stretch the field to go long so instead I think you're gonna see more of the short. Passing game which should open up the whining team as well on the Patriots and the many of -- And back also is also this whole season the Patriots afforded Tom Brady standing pass protection he's gonna need it against Baltimore. Interest in the new ones coming off a Beisel looked at this game and I -- -- -- -- the Patriots do coming off a -- and I found the stat. You know Bill Belichick -- off a buying in his career. Just 1013 and one against the spread in so many people war we say oh this coach and that coach prepares his team a well coming off the -- has the extra week. Well guys there's one of the preeminent coaches in football on these 1013 one against spread John hardball since taking over the Ravens and five and one as a road dog. I lean a little toward the Patriots but he paid me I. This is one of those games and wanna watch I wanna bet existing totals around 44 and a half 45 points and like -- without the deep threat of Moss. And New England having to go short and dead and with the running game may be may be just winds up being announced and under -- well -- here's something in the back that up I mean if you're into the statistical trends and sometimes history does repeat itself in terms of these numbers. You know the Ravens three in a row under on the road this your eleven other -- sixteen under on the road. But the Patriots of course have gone over the total six straight games -- you know tit for -- you find one way to support the -- I'll find you another -- Hey let's head back to the phones here for our first caller to show today Al from Long Island City I don't now. Oh -- -- your -- opinion on this week's during game. And now also would look this week from the Cowboys with that he can be. Pretty much done stick up operate a public that. I -- has a great question that well let's let's take the Giants team first you know you've got the Giants and suddenly a team that everybody was ready to fire Tom Coughlin a couple of weeks ago when. Lynch him suddenly they beat up the Bears 173 they go to Houston they dominate this team. Now of course the oddsmakers realizing that the public's and love what the Giants right blue way to go now they're going ten points at home against Detroit. Your thoughts on the game and grab the points lines coming off the big home win but then again they beat Saint Louis. As as a former book maker. I just the I look at this game and I see two teams that had being -- -- production last week. A lot of points scored by both of these teams I think the public recognizes that. I think because of that they've got this -- a little too high of 45 I think they're -- the over. Because they feel every soccer and his cousin is gonna come all the -- come on this game look at the line and tell my god these teams -- gonna score all day long and it's gonna bet the over no matter what it is having -- real total should have been about 39 and a half. -- get a big value here if you can and betting the under and watching a game and rooting for no scores that's very tough to that. You know it's interesting I didn't really consider the total on the scheme and I mean the trends are overwhelmingly toward the over cause you of the Lions. We're actually number one in the league in scoring with a 126 points refined games. So they're putting points on the board in bunches they also give up a ton of points but that defense last week was the exception. On the -- stop the bad Saint Louis team. -- home but knowing -- -- -- have gone over sixteen of their last 21 I was looking at this team from a a -- perspective I can certainly see the under though. Because what happens but the Giants when next defense historically glance let's say three or four years when he gets on a wall when -- plays with that. Confidence and really attacks. It's hard to get anything going on against them and we've seen the last two games thirteen sacks combined. I mean they took that Houston Texans ground game number one in the league in rushing. They Shannon off yeah I mean nothing Houston could do at home running the ball. While the Giants got out to a an early lead in that game and they kind of force you then have to just pass and pass only so as an uncomfortable position for use in the -- in the first place. And and the rush was so good for the Giants. That it really just it wound up making it impossible for you had to do anything I think that -- big pass rush but noise you know Detroit and Dahlia and that would support and under. And let's wait to answer the question about Dallas and Minnesota requests we've got a caller coming up here in just minimum that the first. Let's go back to the phones and takeoff from John has gone from Orlando about the Lions Giants game as well so we just gave you our opinion John I'm kinda curious which side do you like we delayed ten points for the Giants. Or are you a believer that the line to go into a buying next week. And possibly stay within the number. I happen to like the -- I -- this guy Shawn Hill scored on here. You repeat last. Yeah yet but again it was the St. Louis Rams yeah I mean this is the New York Giants he think he can get the job done on the road. I mean as long as it is Calvin Johnson and play and now I guess yeah comparable to her -- Not well I gotta tell you Calvin Johnson's not going to be playing in for today's game so. I I I just don't I don't now I mean this is one of those it is another game that you can -- but a gun in my head and I tell you the Giants but. I certainly one way dramas in that regard -- yeah a lot of people have been drinking you know the line laid hadn't been bad against the spread ten points is a lot of points to -- it's actually a number even though a double digit number. It is the only double digit number that he'd -- -- can there. Buying awful because obviously with a touchdown and field goal. Ten points is a very common. A final actually just as common as a seven point. Final so would no matter which way you're going you definitely have to consider. Buying the extra half a point here all -- and it's only 120. -- bargain -- they would let me just play the voice of doom here before we -- Jones again for -- and Dallas. Home favorites this year 1629. And 213 games under 500 home -- told you at the beginning to show the favorites overall or 21 games over five under 500 excuse me. Through the first five weeks of the season the Giants. Have covered just once in their last six home games laying points just once so this actually -- this is a team that has not been getting the job done. I'm also worried a little hear about the Giants -- don't want them. You know that Houston game really was a turning point in the season definitely it was a game which they went in as an underdog they dominated we see this all the time. He comes open dominating win on the road they come back home you think they should roll over the next opponent. This doesn't happen is they don't and a four. In this case they don't have you know bring -- same type of energy and enthusiasm. To beat a team like Detroit. So they may be able to do it a lot of times why he'll let down it's when teams have to muster everything they have a one week and then actually take it to the next level. The next week which I think the Giants are actually stepping weighed down here against Detroit and could potentially roll. Okay let's head phones your peak in Dallas. Big surprise once talk about the Cowboys and the Vikings I don't need. Good so -- do you like in this game let's face it who had a caller earlier before you came on Europe -- it said. You know is it a must win for the Cowboys and how it's a must win for both of these teams I mean whoever loses this game forget about the post season aspirations this is like that. But ball you know whoever loses this game hit the button. So which way do you go here -- do you like -- laying the points with the Vikings or you can grab with the Cowboys. Like minute. Really thought Dallas hello you turn. See what happens he would have -- is the parent on eighteen athletic. New York new York and never did that we lost sixteen years straight with the Giants we lose every year with the Jets went there we packed the team we roomed with a heart. You know these Dallas these -- -- they -- -- but I can't blame them because without the biggest bunch of under evening players I've ever seen in my life. From the coach down there every position I. -- -- -- -- He just doesn't get passionate about it all we're talking about here that's a problem that's my ex girlfriends I -- a mall. So are people so why do you like give them Vikings your -- the points are coming off the short week coming off the loss. Against the Jets why do you wanna lay the points of them grab them and -- with the Cowboys who were -- are playing in revenge for that death playoff debacle last year. I think Minnesota with Favre and now but he got ready mark got a much better shot where he's got -- -- it. You know I I agree with him I watched that jet game and I'm a jet and we talk about every week and I try to always separate my heart from my pocket when -- right -- actually had a Jets this weekend another winning week for me that was digging that put me over the top. Yield -- something happened to Minnesota in that third quarter. They kind of woke up and they in any remembered who they wore what they were -- to do all the distractions that took place before the game with -- And all that crap all saddled they would they don't play football when that point happened in that game started in the third quarter Minnesota what do won this game by twenty -- point I think another thing. That that happened in this game was that was that the Jets failed to score in the red zone touchdowns and I don't know if that's -- the Jets were inept or because Minnesota red zone defense was that good. And it's an interesting game let's say again one of those marquee games and I wanna watch I don't find a lot of value in going in a marquee games and they're the hardest ones to win. They have the sharpest lines all the time. We are going to be taking up a Trace Adams here in just about a minute and remember guys. If you hadn't come -- to the dance to name missed any portion in this show or captain to be watching on foxsports.com winning on the carry the first half hour. You can go to pick nation dot com and watch the show in its entirety anytime pick nascent dot com before we take Trace Adams. Guys I wanna face the book. This is it that's drugs rock and roll written by Steve -- in. It's really as -- sub title says the rise and fall of the world's first offshore sports gambling empire this is all about your experiences. Versus a book maker your father's experience in career as a book maker. Then going off -- was Panama. 1994 and went to Panama -- -- when called us from Minnesota actually and needed that it was the first time in the history of the world. Anyone from the US had called overseas for purposes of making football that I'm a pretty big that's pretty big I'm I think the credit get all the catch I want to get you never get all the -- you wanna get but I did get the credit. But hey you wrote the book and here's the deal guys if you'd like a free copy of Steve's book I'm talking for copy that's really it we're giving it away go to pick nascent dot com. Send an email to customer service mentioned where you salt or watch the challenge where you're calling from. Or writing from. Obviously guys you've got to behavior and dress yet we can't ship Petit unless you put your address you'll be surprised how many people get -- hitting minor little legs so go to customer service a -- dot com. Go ahead and send us your name and address and we will go ahead and immediately -- you Steve's pockets of really enjoyable read and you know the whole story out really happened let's go to -- -- -- demonstrates how you doing -- spaced out of Atlanta Georgia one of the top and campers on the nation dot -- guys been with me. And I and various businesses for the past twenty years I don't. I'm doing well today how are you guys don't. Off and Trace that the hear from -- is always. So awesome is it weird that. Let's go to the -- first game month Jets Broncos -- take your did your take on this one Jets coming -- the Monday night. There's a short week of preparation and going on the -- for the third time in four weeks. Come down on them today or. The Broncos simply don't have enough defense to stop this -- attack. Yeah this could definitely be a problem spot for the -- especially after their big Monday nighter with the Vikings and then. And he said three division games prior to the Vikings game there'd certainly primed for a let them what you know what. They've got -- -- on deck next week to you can expect Rex Ryan to have these troops prepared. Denver's defense. I'm with -- they could they could be suspect here in Denver doesn't have much super of the running game it's -- -- -- the Broncos and they failed five of -- went seven against the spread at home I hate -- this could be it can't let down spot but it by if you put a dent in my head I side with -- fly boys in this one. And Denver course has some injury concerns and it's secondary going to be missing two to three -- key performers and its defense of backfield. I'm Mark Sanchez could have a big gamble what really impressed me with the Jets haven't been running the ball so consistent swing I mean LT looks like he's 25 again it's just been amazing the productions and the past couple week. It's I don't know I just get the image of Rex Ryan looking at these films and -- eyes big like he was looking at a Chiluba special from tackle -- I mean you know he's just gonna go ahead. And believe this team directly lead like a bunch -- -- -- you know -- -- ravenous dogs. He's -- know that that this team -- only passes and he's gonna send everybody in there if he can get their kicker in there and have him run down the quarterback he'll do that too I mean Rex Ryan loves these spots he love stated that the challenge yet the team in bullet out of them and I think this is the perfect spot for him to do that. And you know did the chance for the -- to step up and really show the league that they are one of the elite teams that they can. Come through with this road win they have covered nine of their last thirteen on the road dating back to last year as. Another game talk about at Kansas City Houston here you have a Houston team that. You know really hasn't done Watson's at ending the Colts in -- number one they needed a more reckless comeback win in overtime at Washington. I'm Denny of course you've seen what's happened the last two weeks I mean particularly since I had the Giants are at the Texans against the Giants last week that was a big loser. And then yeah Kansas City team that that loss but I was certainly not blown out played respectable -- -- 199 loss at Indy. Out which team rebounds here. You have very very interesting question -- you know -- from my big play on Sunday night to took it on the -- with them against the Colts but nothing what -- that boat catches the ball. In the end zone and -- -- could be a whole different story I like Kansas City are moderated and give up the ship yet on them and and I just don't trust this Houston team boy they were. They were blasted by the -- that mean they got behind so fast so worldly they were unable to get their running game going in and that's going to be key and I don't think -- Are gonna allow you really -- the ball against them I lean toward Kansas City in this one. Okay Kansas City it's it's not I have no opinion on this yeah I mean I think that obviously Houston is gonna have a lot easier time with the Kansas City -- freshen they have with the giant ass right. I think that's gonna be key for them you know you you like to play the game that inning and you know my own award dress. He would be my -- So I mean that we can only you know doesn't get us anywhere but I'll -- we will talk about now and get your opinion on the advocate this cowboy viking game. We just discuss it would the last caller a lot to get to take on that trade. Yeah I am curious about the line the line on being in the Vikings about wanted to after the two point favorite I'll be honest with the I think after what they did that the Cowboys last year in the playoffs. Act on the steal 3043 total humiliation I'd really like the Vikings here I think both teams -- one and three obviously and now. To me Minnesota is probably the best one and three team I've ever seen out Fargas starting to get a little bit more into the flow when you have really bought now catching the passes more and I think that -- -- Peterson to get some nice runs and I think Dallas after that no show against Tennessee coming off the bye week I'm just wondering. It dallas' even get a win sixteen this year I don't think he'll for the Cowboys right now. Such an -- disciplined club to Dallas I mean you look at this team thirteen penalties last week. And then to turn over signing Tony Romo can look at the beginning part of the box score it was great I mean he had a phenomenal game threw for over 400 yards but then you go. Three interceptions couple fumbles I mean this team shoots itself in the foot week after week and I panel starts with the coach and. You gotta be very very careful with his team on pace on the net out thome before and the -- line because it was so good. That is the type that he net every time you know for sure they gonna lose. They win every time he lost so certain that they don't win they lose so this is one of those games on paper the Vikings should roll. And that's making me a little nervous yet the Vikings. Better coaching what does that mean they're gonna be better prepared they had the better quarterback and after last week's stop in the red zone I. I think they have the better defense do so on paper this is all Vikings he should be three and a half point favorites are only one and a half but that's what makes me worried. That line screens trap OK I mean Fargas and -- one now straight up at home since joining the Vikings and recovery of eleven and that includes that playoff. 3043 blasting last year so I'm with you that line the little suspicious but I mean boil boy is this a pretty good spot for Minnesota for sure. -- -- thanks for joining us say again this week in Trace is a regular guest here on the epic nature report. 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