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NCAA Tournament Hopefuls: The key contenders in each major conference
As we head into the middle of February, our focus increasingly turns toward the NCAA Tournament.
Who is in? Who is out? Who is hanging in the balance?
FOX Sports Bracket Forecaster Mike DeCourcy has his finger on the pulse of things, updating us regularly with his tournament projections, the latest of which can be found here.
But this week, our college basketball writers Andy Katz, John Fanta and Michael Cohen decided to take a deeper look at things, with a conference-by-conference look at which teams are locks to get in, which teams should get in and which teams have work to do.
Let's take a look.
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG TEN — by Andy Katz
Which teams are NCAA Tournament locks?
Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State, Iowa, Northwestern, Maryland.
There’s no reason to touch Purdue and Indiana — at all. And I don’t see a scenario where Illinois, Michigan State and/or Iowa could play themselves out of the field. Rutgers has lost three in a row but the Scarlet Knights have enough on the shelf to slide down a few seed lines, but not out. They have lost their chance to get a top-four-line seed. The likely scenario is for Purdue and Indiana to get into the top 16 when it is revealed Saturday.
Which teams should be in?
All of the above. We are at a point where seeding is the issue. Could Northwestern and/or Maryland still play themselves out of the field? Sure. But there is no indication that either team will fall completely flat.
Which teams have work to do to get off the bubble?
Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State. All three missed golden opportunities last weekend. Wisconsin blew a lead at Nebraska, Penn State was within one possession at the half and Michigan had a chance to win at the buzzer against Indiana. They have to make up a lot of ground here soon.
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG EAST — by John Fanta
Which teams are NCAA Tournament locks?
Marquette (20-6, 12-3 Big East): The Golden Eagles own four Quadrant 1 wins and Shaka Smart's team is 4-0 in Quad 2 games. Their résumé highlights? A pair of wins over Baylor and UConn, both of which are in the top 10 of the NET rankings. The Golden Eagles showed they were well on their way when they went into Mackey Arena in the second week of the season and only lost to Purdue by five.
Xavier (19-6, 11-3 Big East): The Musketeers own six Quadrant 1 victories, fourth-most in college basketball. A season sweep of UConn, a win over Marquette as well as one over a West Virginia team that ranks in the top 30 of the NET headline the résumé, while Sean Miller's team has a combined six wins away from home. While a left foot injury to Zach Freemantle hurts the Musketeers in how they maneuver their way through the final month, Xavier has built up so much good real estate and is just a half-game back in the Big East title race. The Musketeers are a lock.
UConn (19-7, 8-7 Big East): The Huskies own the third-most Quadrant 1 wins on the season at seven. They beat Alabama and Iowa State en route to the Phil Knight Invitational title, a pair of victories on a neutral floor that hold unlimited mileage. Once they started the season 14-0, the Huskies were a lock for the big dance. While an 8-7 record in conference play has been somewhat disappointing, there is zero way Connecticut misses the NCAA Tournament.
Creighton (17-9, 11-4 Big East): A month ago, the Bluejays were squarely on the bubble, but Creighton has figured it out and is playing like one of the best teams in America. While the Jays lost 94-86 in double-overtime on Tuesday night at Providence, Greg McDermott's team had won eight in a row before that with victories over Xavier, UConn and the Friars included in that stretch. Their NET ranking is still 14 despite a six-game losing streak at one point, and they have a strength of schedule that ranks 14th in the country. They're the most dangerous of the four teams in the Big East to be able to make a run in the dance.
Which teams should be in?
Providence (19-7, 11-4 Big East): Tuesday night's 94-86 double-overtime win over Creighton negated the loss to St. John's on Saturday at Madison Square Garden. While the Friars did not do much in their nonconference season, they own victories over Marquette, UConn and Creighton, as well as a Quad 1 road win at Seton Hall and just a two-point road loss to Xavier, who they get at Amica Mutual Pavilion on March 1. Ed Cooley's teams seemingly always get better as the year goes on and this should be no different.
Which teams have work to do to get off the bubble?
Seton Hall is the lone team that has a puncher's chance to get an at-large bid. The Pirates are currently in Mike DeCourcy's first eight teams out and took care of business on Tuesday with a win over Georgetown. The Hall owns three Quad 1 victories, including a road win at Rutgers and a 17-point comeback victory over UConn. With a 5-10 record against Quad 1 and 2, along with a Quadrant 3 loss to Siena, Shaheen Holloway's team on the outside looking in. The good news is they have chances to make a case:
- Saturday, Noon ET: at UConn (FOX)
- Friday, Feb. 24, 7 p.m. ET: vs. Xavier (FS1)
- Tuesday, Feb. 28, 8:30 p.m. ET: vs. Villanova (FS1)
- Saturday, March 4, TBD: at Providence (FOX/FS1)
If the Pirates go 3-1 in those four, they're in. If they go 2-2, they will need to win a Big East quarterfinal game.
One added note in the Big East: There is a bid-stealer candidate: Villanova! The Wildcats have won three in a row and Justin Moore keeps making progress since his return from an Achilles injury. With Caleb Daniels, Brandon Slater, Eric Dixon and Big East Freshman of the Week Cam Whitmore, never say never. The Cats will have a crowd at Madison Square Garden during the conference tournament, and they are not a team I would want to have on my side of the bracket that week.
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 12 — by Michael Cohen.
Which teams are NCAA Tournament locks?
Kansas (20-5, 8-4 Big 12): Five wins over ranked opponents have propelled the Jayhawks to their 20th straight 20-win season under head coach Bill Self. Kansas ranks among the top 25 in the country in both offensive efficiency (23rd) and defensive efficiency (11th) and bounced back from a mini three-game skid in January to win four of its last five games. Four players score in double figures for the Jayhawks, with star forward Jalen Wilson (20.6 points, 8.3 rebounds) leading the charge.
Texas (20-6, 9-4 Big 12): The early-season firing of head coach Chris Beard, who was arrested on a third-degree felony assault charge, could have derailed what many expected to be a promising campaign for the Longhorns. Instead, interim coach Rodney Terry — a former head coach at UTEP and Fresno State — has guided them to 13 wins in 18 games and a 9-4 mark in conference play. Texas has four wins over ranked opponents and is 9-6 in Quad 1 games.
Baylor (20-6, 9-4 Big 12): The Bears are one of the hottest teams in the country with 10 wins in their last 11 games to climb back into the top 10 of the national polls. Baylor leads the country in offensive efficiency with 122.1 points scored per 100 possessions. Head coach Scott Drew has assembled a roster featuring three players averaging at least 14 PPG, with Keyonte George (16.5 PPG), Adam Flagler (15.8 PPG) and LJ Cryer (14.9 PPG) balancing the scoring. Four of the Bears' final five games are against ranked opponents.
Kansas State (19-6, 7-5 Big 12): An electric 15-1 start to the season has made Kansas State one of the best stories in college basketball under first-year head coach Jerome Tang. The Wildcats have five wins over ranked opponents headlined by an 83-82 home upset of then-No. 2 Kansas. A defense that ranks 20th nationally in efficiency takes some of the pressure off an offense that sits 139th in effective field goal percentage (51.3%) and 271st in turnover percentage (19.9% of possessions). Both of K-State's remaining games against ranked opponents are at home.
Which teams should be in?
TCU (17-8, 6-6 Big 12): Head coach Jamie Dixon is on the cusp of his fifth 20-win season in seven tries since arriving at TCU from Pittsburgh. The Horned Frogs have a wild résumé that accurately captures their boom-or-bust potential. They have high-quality wins over then-No. 25 Iowa, then-No. 19 Baylor, then-No. 11 Kansas State and then-No. 2 Kansas to place them in the top 25 of the NCAA NET rankings. They also have head-scratching losses to Northwestern State from the Southland Conference and a Mississippi State team that sits 10th in the SEC. The ceiling is impressive; the floor is frightening.
Iowa State (16-8, 7-5 Big 12): The Cyclones enjoyed a blistering start to the season with 13 wins in their first 15 games as second-year head coach T.J. Otzelberger continued to retool the program. Fast-forward and ISU has lost four of its last five games with none of those defeats coming against ranked opponents: Missouri, Texas Tech, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. The nation's 75th-best offense is offset by a 10th-ranked defense that forces turnovers on 26.3% of possessions to lead the country.
Which teams have work to do to get off the bubble?
Oklahoma State (16-9, 7-5 Big 12): The advanced metrics seem to like Oklahoma State more than most people would from the eye test alone. The Cowboys are ranked 27th in KenPom due in large part to a defense that ranks fifth nationally by allowing just 89.9 points per 100 possessions. They have three wins over ranked opponents (Iowa State x2 and TCU) and seem to be peaking at the right time by winning seven of their last eight. A difficult closing run will feature four out of six games against ranked teams.
BREAKING DOWN THE PAC-12 — by Andy Katz
Which teams are NCAA Tournament locks?
UCLA, Arizona. The Bruins and Wildcats are safely in. UCLA still has a chance for a No. 1 seed if Houston were to falter. Arizona was in that conversation at one point, but losses to Washington State at home and at Stanford canceled that out for the Wildcats. Both have enough quality wins to be safely single-digit seeds.
Which teams should be in?
UCLA, Arizona. Yes, this is the end of the list. There are only two guarantees in the Pac-12.
Which teams have work to do to get off the bubble?
USC, Utah and Arizona State. Each have had their moments this season, notably USC beating UCLA and Utah beating Arizona. But they need more, at least one or two more Quad 1 wins if they can get them in the next few weeks. This is a huge weekend for all of them. Utah heads to the Arizona schools and needs to try and get at least a split to feel good about its chances. The Utes have plenty of ground to make up. ASU continues to take two steps forward and one step back. The Sun Devils could use a sweep of Colorado and Utah. USC needs to sweep the Bay Area schools — going 2-2 in the final four games would help their cause quite a bit.
BREAKING DOWN THE SEC — by John Fanta
Which teams are NCAA Tournament locks?
Alabama (22-3, 12-0 SEC): There's only one question with the Crimson Tide: Will they continue their dominance and get the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament? Alabama has seven Quadrant 1 wins to just two defeats, and they're 12-0 in conference play for the first time since 1955-56. This team owns a combined 13 wins in the top two Quadrants with zero blemishes. With Brandon Miller — the best all-around talent in the sport — an elite defense and an offense that ranks first in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, there are no holes to this Crimson Tide team. They should be a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.
Tennessee (19-6, 8-4 SEC): The Volunteers may have lost three of their last four games, including back-to-back defeats suffered at the buzzer to Vanderbilt and Missouri, but Tennessee is likely still going to find itself in Saturday's top-16 reveal from the committee. Mike DeCourcy currently has the Vols as a No. 3 seed in his latest forecast. Why? They won the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas, culminating with a commanding 14-point win over Kansas in the title game. A victory over Texas and a neutral site win over Maryland also are notable, and the Vols are a combined 11-0 against Quadrants 3 and 4.
Which teams should be in?
Missouri (19-7, 7-6 SEC): Dennis Gates came from Cleveland State and has hit the ground running with the Tigers in his first season at the helm, building one of the best turnaround stories in college basketball. Mizzou is 4-7 in Quadrant 1, which is a decent mark. They are perfect against the other three Quadrants. A blowout loss to Auburn on Tuesday isn't helpful to their cause, but the Tigers could very well end up in an 8-9 game.
Auburn (18-8, 8-5 SEC): The Tigers were ranked in the top 15 of the preseason AP poll and have spent a good portion of the season ranked, but that has zero impact on whether a team makes the NCAA Tournament. With a NET ranking of 35, Auburn's metrics are … okay. They helped themselves with an 89-56 win over Missouri on Tuesday night but still hold a 2-6 record against Quadrant 1.
Arkansas (17-8, 6-6 SEC): Not having Nick Smith for the majority of the season due to injury and losing Trevon Brazile to a season-ending setback has hurt this team's potential, but this is still a dangerous group that defends about as well as anyone in the country. I think the Razorbacks are the dark horse to be seeded lower than the 7-line that could end up winning multiple games because Anthony Black is a big-time player, Ricky Council IV is productive and Davonte Davis has taken a leap.
Which teams have work to do to get off the bubble?
Texas A&M (18-7, 10-2 SEC): The Aggies have the strangest résumé in the country. They are 2-4 in Quadrant 1, while owning a pair of Quadrant 4 losses. That's rough, and something that could come back to really bite you if you're a bubble team. All this said, Buzz Williams has a team that sits in second place in the SEC.
Mississippi State (17-8, 5-7 SEC): First-year head coach Chris Jans has done a nice job turning around the program, but the Bulldogs don't have much quality to their résumé, with a 9-0 Quad 4 record – cupcake city. The Bulldogs have won five in a row, but they must keep it rolling Wednesday night when they host Kentucky in what could be identified as a play-in game.
Kentucky (16-9, 7-5 SEC): Big Blue Nation should be on red alert! Kentucky's résumé is not good enough, and that's why DeCourcy has them in his first four out at the moment. The Wildcats are 1-7 against Quad 1 and have a Quad 4 loss at home to South Carolina. They are 6-1 against Quad 2, but they just don't have enough top-tier victories to suggest that they deserve to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. Things are going in the wrong direction for John Calipari.
BREAKING DOWN THE ACC — by Michael Cohen
Which teams are NCAA Tournament locks?
Virginia (19-4, 11-3 ACC): Head coach Tony Bennett's team is the class of the conference once again and was the only ACC school ranked in the top 30 of KenPom as of Tuesday afternoon. Early-season slipups against Houston and Miami have aged very well for the Cavaliers, who offset those losses with wins over Baylor, Illinois and N.C. State. Virginia ranks among the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season for the first time since 2018-19, when the Cavaliers finished with a 35-3.
Miami (21-5, 12-4 ACC): The Hurricanes have righted the ship by winning five in a row after a midseason stumble called into question the veracity of their 13-1 start. They've notched key victories over then-No. 6 Virginia and then-No. 20 Clemson to bolster their résumé in a lackluster conference. Miami, which ranks ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency, has four players averaging at least 13 PPG, led by the tremendous backcourt duo of Isaiah Wong (16 points, 4.5 rebounds) and Jordan Miller (15 points, 5.8 rebounds).
Which teams should be in?
N.C. State (20-6, 10-5 ACC): The Wolfpack are a prime example of a team that wins the games it's supposed to win and loses the games it's supposed to lose — which in a downtrodden ACC means racking up 20 victories with relative ease. They have just two victories over ranked opponents (then-No. 16 Duke, then-No. 16 Miami) but only one loss to a team that might not make the NCAA tournament (unranked North Carolina). Head coach Kevin Keatts' team is 41st in KenPom and 36th in the NCAA NET rankings.
Pittsburgh (18-7, 11-3 ACC): It's a sign of the times in the ACC that the first-place team isn't a lock to make the NCAA tournament, nor is that school currently ranked. Pittsburgh began the year 1-3 with losses to West Virginia, Michigan and VCU before reeling off 10 wins in 11 games as embattled coach Jeff Capel III finally turned things around. The Panthers' résumé includes huge wins over then-No. 11 Virginia and then-No. 20 Miami that are offset by puzzling defeats to Florida State (8-18, 6-9 ACC) and Vanderbilt (13-12, 6-6 SEC).
Which teams have work to do to get off the bubble?
Clemson (18-7, 10-4 ACC): The Tigers enjoyed a terrific 18-4 start against a relatively soft schedule that afforded them a single win over a ranked opponent (then-No. 24 Duke). Since then, head coach Brad Brownell's squad has dropped three straight games against Boston College, Miami and North Carolina, the last of which was an embarrassing 20-point drubbing. Clemson's NCAA Tournament fate could be decided in the final two weeks of the regular season when it plays N.C. State and Virginia, the only ranked teams in the league.
Duke (17-8, 8-6 ACC): It's been an uneven debut season for first-year head coach Jon Scheyer, the hand-chosen replacement for Hall of Famer Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils began the year ranked seventh in the country but struggled to find consistency after a 10-2 start. They've won back-to-back games on just two occasions since mid-December and lost consecutive games against ranked opponents Miami and Virginia last week. Duke sits 32nd in the NCAA NET rankings because Scheyer's team has won 14 of 15 games against opponents from Quads 2, 3 and 4 to lessen the sting of a 3-7 mark in Quad 1.
Wake Forest (17-9, 9-6 ACC): What a rollercoaster season for head coach Steve Forbes, whose team has navigated wild swings from one end of the spectrum to the other: a 7-1 start gave way to a stretch of three losses in four games; a bounce-back run of seven wins in nine games devolved into four consecutive losses to close the month of January. Now the Demon Deacons have won three in a row over Notre Dame, North Carolina and Georgia Tech to give themselves a chance of reaching the NCAA tournament. They're still outside the top 70 in both KenPom and the NCAA NET rankings with five games remaining.
North Carolina (16-10, 8-7 ACC): It's fair to wonder if the Tar Heels would even be part of this discussion had they not began the year as the No. 1 team in the country. There's very little about their résumé that suggests UNC is worthy of a tournament berth: They are 38th in KenPom and 46th in the NCAA NET rankings; they are 0-9 against Quad 1 opponents and haven't beaten anyone in the latest top-25 poll. But their schedule includes forthcoming games against N.C. State, Virginia and Duke that give head coach Hubert Davis' team some hope.
Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.
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