College Football

The three best College Football Playoff bets as Week 0 kicks off

Published Aug. 28, 2021 12:53 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The question arises at the beginning of every college football season, when we talk about college football national championship futures and College Football Playoff bets.

"Who are the sleepers this year?"

I always struggle with that one because a true sleeper hasn’t had a legitimate chance to win a national championship in decades.

This isn’t a knock on Cincinnati (+12000 to win the national title at FOX Bet, meaning a $10 bet wins you $1,210 total), Coastal Carolina (+20000; bet $10 to win $2,010 total) or Liberty (off the board at FOX Bet!). They just have no chance to compete with the depth, talent and recruiting ability of the Alabamas, Clemsons and Ohio States of the world.

Even if one of the aforementioned sleepers makes the College Football Playoff, it would have to win back-to-back games as a two- or three-touchdown underdog to seize the throne. Let’s just say the mathematics don’t work in favor of Cinderella.

"When we talk about sleepers, we end up talking about teams like Texas A&M, and they’re a stocked blue-blood program," Circa Sports sportsbook director Matt Metcalf told me. "There are no true sleepers. I’ve had a lot of people talk about Cincinnati. I would have them as an 18-point underdog against Alabama."

Luckily for us, FOX Bet has a really creative betting market this season. Instead of just wagering on which team will win it all, you can bet on or against a team to make the playoff. Cincinnati is +1400, for example, to make it (bet $10 to win $150 total); Coastal is +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total).

If you’re feeling froggy, by all means, leap. I’m going more mainstream with my bets. Here are the three best wagers on the College Football Playoff field as the season kicks off with Week 0.

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Ohio State (-200) to make the playoff – bet $10 to win $15 total

The Buckeyes will be favored by double digits in every single regular-season game, and that includes an early battle with Oregon at The Horseshoe.

Ryan Day has proven to be an even better in-game coach than Urban Meyer, and the recruiting hasn’t skipped a beat, either. No secondary in the country will be able to contain receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, and despite the annual NFL exodus, the Buckeyes probably have five first-round picks and six solid pros on each side of the field.

There’s too much talent for the Buckeyes to fail and not enough competition on Ohio State’s path to the playoff.

Oklahoma (+165) to miss the playoff – bet $10 to win $26.50 total

Some pundits are already handing the Big 12 to the Sooners. I’m not there yet.

All signs point to an amazing offense captained by Heisman Trophy favorite Spencer Rattler, but I keep coming back to the defense, which has been Oklahoma’s fatal flaw for years. I don’t have a huge gap between OU and Iowa State, either. One longtime oddsmaker told me he would make OU -5.5 on a neutral field, which is pretty telling. It won’t be easy to beat Matt Campbell’s club in a likely rematch in the conference title game. There are also slippery spots against Texas and at Oklahoma State.

Oregon (+650) to make the playoff – bet $10 to win $75 total

I’m higher on Oregon than most people because of their defensive front. Mario Cristobal has built an absolute monster, with potential No. 1 overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux, Noah Sewell and Mase Funa all in the front seven. That trifecta could easily be the difference in winnable games at Washington and Utah.

This is also year two for offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead with an experienced backfield and talented line. Expect to see growth and more production on that side of the ball. A one-loss Oregon team has a shot to dance, and it’s worth a wager around 7-to-1.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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