College Football

College football odds: Early betting thoughts on the CFP Semifinals

Updated Dec. 8, 2021 5:28 p.m. ET

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By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

We’re more than three weeks away from the College Football Playoff (CFP), but sportsbooks are already taking bets on the national semifinals.

It’s never too early to make a wager on these games, and there’s not any concern about top players sitting out, so you won’t see any drastic line moves between now and New Year’s Eve.

This isn’t the Mayo Bowl or Peach Bowl — everybody wants to play for a national title.

No. 1 Alabama will clash with No. 4 Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl, where the Crimson Tide opened as 13-point favorites. This number has been bet up since post, and FOX Bet is currently dealing Alabama -13.5 with a total of 58. 

I don’t love laying double-digits, but I certainly don’t want to go against Alabama, either. Nick Saban is an absolute monster with extra time to prepare. Bama’s semifinal wins have been by 38 over Michigan State, 17 against Washington, 18 versus Clemson, 11 over Oklahoma and 17 against Notre Dame.

Sheesh.

If you like Cincinnati, you should hold out for +14. Trust me, it’s coming.

In the Orange Bowl, No. 2 Michigan meets No. 3 Georgia. But don’t let the rankings fool you, as the Bulldogs are over a touchdown favorite everywhere. FOX Bet has Georgia -8 with a total of 44.5.

That betting line proves that oddsmakers still respect the hell out of Georgia even though Bama blasted the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship.

"It was an eye-opening performance by Alabama," a longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker told FOX Sports. "But Georgia’s defense is still outstanding. They caught Bryce Young on a wrong day, and that’s a quarterback that will be zipping passes on Sundays real soon.

"Michigan wishes they could pass the ball like Alabama. Georgia is built to stop the running game, and that’s Michigan’s bread and butter. Be careful overreacting to a blowout win over Iowa. The Hawkeyes stink."

The standard knock against the Dawgs is that "they haven’t beaten anybody," and there may be some truth to that with their best win coming against Arkansas. But that doesn’t mean Georgia can’t handle Michigan.

Circa Sports in Vegas is already taking bets on a potential national championship game between Georgia and Alabama. That unique market opened Georgia -1, which may surprise some people, but remember, Georgia closed as a 6.5-point favorite in Part I against Bama.

It’s even more proof that sportsbooks still believe in the Dawgs’ potential.

I would hate to be the team that has to face Georgia off that loss in the SEC Championship because I know what its defense is capable of against a team that struggles to throw the football.

My early thoughts are to buy low on the Dawgs and lay the points against the Wolverines. 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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College Football

Alabama Crimson Tide

Michigan Wolverines

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Sam Panayotovich