NASCAR Cup Series

For most drivers not already in NASCAR's playoff, it'll likely take a win to get in

Updated Jul. 29, 2021 9:40 p.m. ET

By Bob Pockrass
FOX Sports NASCAR Writer

This week’s post was intended to analyze the NASCAR Cup Series playoff bubble.

But there’s a problem with that: With five races left in the regular season, there isn’t much of a bubble.

With 12 winners already this season and four winless drivers who have consistently finished in the top 15, there is a major separation in the standings among the winless.

The 16-driver playoff field consists of the regular-season champion and the 15 drivers with the most wins, with ties broken by points.

Right now, the four drivers without wins are Denny Hamlin (currently the points leader by 10 points over Kyle Larson), Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick. The fifth winless driver is Chris Buescher, who is 96 points behind Reddick, 104 points behind Dillon, 159 points behind Harvick and 369 points behind Hamlin.

With 55 points being the most a non-winner can earn in a race, it is highly unlikely that Buescher makes up the 96-point gap in the next five races. As a result, anyone in the top 30 who is behind Reddick in the standings likely faces a must-win situation.

"Obviously, it’s not a situation we want to be in, but that’s out of our control [now]," said Matt DiBenedetto, who sits 18th in the standings.

Of the 14 drivers on the outside looking in, only one driver – Cole Custer – won a race last year. Erik Jones last won in July 2019. Aric Almirola last won in October 2018, and Ryan Newman and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. last won in 2017. Buescher’s lone career win came in 2016.

Of those drivers outside the bubble, only Daniel Suarez has led more than 40 laps, and 58 of his 74 laps led this year came at the Bristol dirt event.

None of the drivers on the outside looking in have done a whole lot to show they are on the brink of winning a race this year. Only two drivers – DiBenedetto and Chastain – have more than one top-five finish in the first 21 races, and they have two.

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DiBenedetto, who has a 10th and a ninth in his past two starts, respectively, thinks his best chance to win could come this weekend at New Hampshire.

"We have excellent opportunities coming up, but if I’m circling one that I’m most excited about, it’s this weekend," DiBenedetto said.

No other driver outside the bubble has two top-10s in his past four starts. Chase Briscoe was sixth at Road America, where Chastain was seventh. At Pocono, Bubba Wallace posted a fifth, and Ryan Preece had an eighth.

Should those drivers currently on the "inside" feel pretty good? Yes, but pretty good isn’t a guarantee, especially with two road courses (Watkins Glen and Indianapolis) and a superspeedway race (Daytona) still on the docket. Only two standard ovals, New Hampshire and Michigan, are among the five remaining races.

Reddick and teammate Dillon, separated by eight points at the bottom "inside" the bubble, likely would be the ones fighting for a spot if someone outside the bubble wins. They thought they might be battling Kurt Busch, but Busch locked himself into the playoffs with a victory Sunday at Atlanta.

"I know we can make the playoffs. We just have to continue to push," Reddick said.

Reddick, Dillon, Harvick and Hamlin are probably the four winless drivers most likely to win in the next five races. But considering what DiBenedetto said about New Hampshire being his best chance to win, here are the best possibilities for some of these drivers to pull an upset.

New Hampshire (July 18): DiBenedetto has finishes of fifth and sixth at NHMS in his past two starts, while Preece has two top-three finishes in Xfinity at this track.

Watkins Glen (Aug. 8) and Indianapolis (Aug. 15): Suarez is probably the best road racer of the bunch, as he has two top-5 finishes in his career on road courses — a third and a fourth at Watkins Glen. Briscoe has two top-10s in his past three road-course starts and won the Xfinity race on the Indianapolis road course last year.

Michigan (Aug. 22): Chastain was second at Nashville and has the best shot of all these drivers on an intermediate track.

Daytona (Aug. 28): Jones, Almirola, Stenhouse and Newman are all former Daytona winners. Wallace was second in the 2018 Daytona 500.

NASCAR designed this format in hopes of having some walk-off moments late in the regular season, where a driver vaults from outside the cutline and into the playoffs.

If it happens in 2021, it would be a huge vault.

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What To Watch For

Brad Keselowski and Hamlin combined to lead 276 of the 301 laps last year at New Hampshire. Both drivers are somewhat desperate for a win – Hamlin hasn’t won this year, and Keselowski’s lone victory came at Talladega – and this could be a track where they can match the Hendrick drivers.

Another driver desperate for a win is Harvick, who has won three of the past six New Hampshire races.

New Hampshire, a 1.058-mile track, shares some characteristics with Phoenix, which is where the championship will be decided.

Who won at Phoenix earlier this year? Martin Truex Jr., who has led 744 laps at New Hampshire in his career but still seeks his first victory at the track.

Truex’s best finish at NHMS is third. Among those whose best is second is Larson, who has three career runner-up finishes without a victory at the track. You have to think that Hendrick equipment would be good for one more spot.

Thinking Out Loud

After a rough ending at Knoxville Raceway, with several wrecks and four NASCAR "overtime" attempts, some fans say NASCAR should not return with the trucks to the track in 2022.

The race had its issues, but to be one-and-done because of them would be a mistake.

The track has never played host to vehicles that heavy with such low horsepower. While the track isn’t designed for vehicles like the trucks, NASCAR should see if it can learn from its 2021 race and put on a better show in 2022.

It was a risk for the track to even host the race and for NASCAR to go there, knowing it would be a challenge. Everyone deserves a chance to make improvements, from how the track is maintained to NASCAR procedures.

Single-file restarts? More work on the track between stages? Take out the windshields so drivers can have more of a cushion and there won't be worries about mud caked on the windshield? All should be looked at for a return. Knoxville plays host to the biggest event in sprint-car racing. It should get another chance to see what it can do with the trucks.

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They Said It

"My plan is for Chase and William to retire with us. ... I love the lineup right now, and I want to keep the band together." – Rick Hendrick on the contract status of William Byron and Chase Elliott, who are signed through 2022.

Bob Pockrass has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s. He joined FOX Sports in 2019 following stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @bobpockrass. Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!