National Football League

2024 AFC Championship odds: 'Mahomes getting points is tough to pass up'

Updated Jan. 26, 2024 10:34 a.m. ET

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Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

This Sunday at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium, the unstoppable force must upset the immovable object to make his fourth Super Bowl appearance.

Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is the former and the Ravens are the latter.

Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs are 4-point underdogs against the top-seeded Ravens. At the end of the day, though, Mahomes is the great equalizer to balance the betting action.

Not only is Mahomes making his sixth straight appearance in the AFC Championship, he’s right back in a role where he makes you money. The Chiefs have been an underdog only 11 times since September 2018, and they’re 8-3 straight up and 9-1-1 against the spread.

There will be a hungering appetite to bet Kansas City this weekend.

"Mahomes getting points is tough to pass up," Golden Nugget executive sportsbook director Tony Miller told FOX Sports. "I know they’re on the road, playing outside in the cold again. And I know they’re up against the hottest team in the NFL with a great quarterback and a great coach.

"But Mahomes and Andy Reid can never be counted out."

All of that said, doesn’t Baltimore feel a tad undervalued? The Ravens are clearly the highest power rated team in the AFC, and they’ve been walloping teams at full strength for two-and-a-half months. 

The Christmas Night destruction of the 49ers in San Francisco was as impressive as it gets, when Baltimore led by 21 points with seven minutes to go.

The Ravens’ top-rated defense is also a major step up in competition from the decimated Dolphins’ unit and the battered Bills’ secondary. Baltimore’s D is truly elite, and it checks all the boxes in terms of advanced metrics.

"I wouldn’t say they’re underrated," Miller argued. "They’re playing the best football right now. Lamar Jackson is the MVP and John Harbaugh has a Super Bowl trophy under his belt. A team like that can’t be overlooked.  

"Nobody is sleeping on Baltimore, they’re rolling."

Lamar Jackson expects AFC Championship to be a 'heavyweight fight' vs. Patrick Mahomes

On the flip side, if Jackson hurls an interception or fumbles the football on Baltimore’s first offensive drive, everything will change. Imagine the silence inside the Crab Cake if Mahomes and Co. drive right down the field for seven.  

I still believe most people betting Kansas City are banking on Mahomes and Reid making more postseason magic. As solid as the Chiefs’ defense has been all season, most KC backers envision No. 15 doing what he does in crunch time.    

"He does it all," Miller expounded. "The scrambling, the sidearm passes on the move, the pocket presence, the way he keeps the opposing defense on its toes. He’s the most valuable player to the point spread in the entire league.

"Mahomes is worth six or seven points to the line."

Some ignore greatness for other reasons. Maybe because the Chiefs always win and you want something new. Maybe it’s because you’ve seen enough of Brittany and Jackson Mahomes. Maybe the sight of Taylor Swift in a luxury box rooting for Travis Kelce drives you absolutely insane for some reason.

Miller chuckled and countered as quickly as one can.

"I’m tired of hearing people griping about Kansas City," he said. "Mahomes can do anything on the football field. And he’s always got the Chiefs within striking distance. He’s probably going to surpass Brady as the best of all-time."

So, will the Chiefs make it back to the Super Bowl?  

"I think so," Miller predicted. "They’ve got the experience and the championship moxie. And if the Chiefs take care of business and make it to Vegas, we’re gonna break all the handle records. It’ll be off the charts." 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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Sam Panayotovich