National Football League

Joel Klatt's top 5 quarterbacks in 2024 NFL Draft

Updated Feb. 20, 2024 11:43 a.m. ET

Draft season is here! As we prepare for the three-day event that will be held in Detroit in late April, I'll be dropping some positional rankings before unveiling my top 50 prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Let's start with the quarterbacks.

First and foremost, this is a great quarterback draft. This draft is deep with quarterback talent and this is as good a quarterback draft class as we've had in a long time, at least on paper. It could rival the 1983 NFL Draft as one of the best quarterback draft classes of all time.

[Rob Rang ranks the 10 best QBs in the 2024 draft]

There is a mixture of the traditional talented three-years-and-done player. You've also got some guys who have played a ton of football, transferred around, had a COVID year, and are very experienced, older players. So, you've got this perfect storm of events that has happened in the last few years that have kept talented players in college football.

It's also one of the reasons why I love this class. We don't need to do as much projecting, as the top quarterbacks have each started at least 25 games in college. If you look at the quarterbacks who've won the Super Bowl since Tom Brady won his first title, most of them started more than 30 games and had more than 1,000 passing attempts in college.

That quarterback talent was reflected in my first mock draft, which was released last week. I had six quarterbacks going in the first round. Sure, that might be a lot, but those six players deserve to be selected in the first round, and it wouldn't be a reach to select them that high. At the very least, those six quarterbacks are likely ranked somewhere between the top 35-40 prospects in this year's draft.

Caleb Williams, Brock Bowers & Marvin Harrison Jr. in Joel Klatt’s mock draft 1.0

Let me also preface my rankings with this: Just because I ranked one player lower than another doesn't mean I hate them. In fact, every player mentioned here can, should and will be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.

So, here are my top five quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft.

1. USC QB Caleb Williams

This isn't much of a surprise. If you haven't already, you'll likely hear Williams get compared to Patrick Mahomes between now and the night he gets drafted.

Williams does a lot of things similar to Mahomes, and he's even better than the Chiefs quarterback was in college. Let's not stop there. I truly believe that Williams is a generational talent.

Quarterbacks like Williams are extremely rare. When I evaluate quarterback prospects, it's rare to find one who is excellent in all five of my categories. Williams is at the top level in each of them and let me give a brief explanation on each category.

Controlling the game from the pocket: Do you have the ability to control the game from the pocket after making post-snap reads? That's typically the thing that holds quarterbacks back the most in the NFL. But Williams has that ability.

Arm talent: Do you have the requisite arm and how talented is it? Williams' arm talent is off the charts, particularly when he's out of the pocket. He makes every single throw. It's strong down the field. He's accurate in the intermediate zones, he can change angles. He has an incredibly talented arm.

Movement and creating: Can you move in the pocket? Can you get yourself free from pressure? Can you create without being a threat as a runner? Can you create time and space in order to be a threat as a passer? I don't know if any player I've ever evaluated does that better than Williams. This is his superpower. There's a combination of that arm talent and the ability to continue to know what's going on down the field. He is accurate on the run and off platform.

Ability to make plays with legs: Can you be a threat just straight with your legs? This guy is top-end, right? There aren't many that were better than him. So it didn't matter if he was just creating in the pocket or outside, he could also be a threat as a runner.

Mind: Do you have the schematic ability in your mind to understand what's going on on the football field? Williams does. I've talked to him at length about schematics. I've talked to his coaches about what he understands about schematics. That guy understands what's going on, he gets the game of football.

Tahj Washington's 59-yard reception fuels Caleb Williams 2-yard rushing TD to bring USC within one score vs. Oregon

When I evaluate quarterbacks for the draft, each one is usually average to below average in at least one category. Williams isn't like most other quarterbacks though, which is why I and many other evaluators have him ranked as our No. 1 quarterback.

I just want to encourage people to not get bored with the fact that we've known this for a long time. I think people got bored with Caleb Williams, and we expected so much out of him. And when their season didn't go well, some people were like, "Maybe he isn't the quarterback." He is. Don't get bored from your initial thoughts.

2. UNC QB Drake Maye

Let me put it to you very simply: If it wasn't for Williams, Maye would be the slam dunk No. 1 pick in this draft — and I don't think that it's that close.

Williams and Maye have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, even if the other top quarterbacks in this draft are really talented. Maye has some talent that I haven't seen in quite some time in the college game. He's a better version of what Josh Allen was in college. He makes throws from the pocket and outside of it. His ceiling is so high.

I might be spoiled because the one game I covered him was UNC's matchup against Oregon in the 2022 Holiday Bowl. He made some throws against a really good Oregon team that blew my mind, especially for a young quarterback (he was a redshirt freshman at the time).

No. 15 Oregon Ducks vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Highlights | Holiday Bowl

Maye and Williams make plays and throws that other quarterbacks cannot make, both on schedule and off schedule. These two quarterbacks are like gymnasts who have higher point potential and can afford a mistake because their routine has just a higher level of difficulty. They just have a much higher ceiling than the rest of the class.

Let me simplify this even more: If we took the highest selected quarterbacks in each draft since 2013, Williams and Maye would easily rank in the top four in that group of 24 quarterbacks as prospects. (If you're wondering, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence make up the other half of that top four).

Don't get bored with the fact that we've known that Maye has been great for a long time. He doesn't turn 22 until late August. He's much closer to Williams than he is to my No. 3 quarterback.

Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in Joel Klatt’s top 5 QBs in 2024 NFL Draft

3. LSU QB Jayden Daniels

I would say Daniels meets the five tools I outlined with Williams earlier. Maybe he doesn't show those tools as well as Williams or Maye do, but he does have the edge in a couple of those categories over those two.

Daniels is more of a threat with his legs than all the others. He's been an unbelievable runner in college football. He ran for more than 1,100 yards last season. But he is slender. That can be a concern. Can he run around like he did in college? Probably not. He's 6-foot-4, 210 pounds.

I love how experienced Daniels is. He's played a ton of football — 55 starts in his college career with 26 of them at LSU in the SEC. He was incredible last year on his way to the Heisman Trophy, averaging more than 400 yards of total offense per game, including 95 per game on the ground.

Daniels is a threat. You see elements of those five tools when you evaluate him. He did play with some outstanding receivers in college, helping him put up some of those staggering numbers. But he's just so highly skilled, and I'm a big believer in experience going into the NFL. Having that many starts under your belt is a lot and is something I go back to.

Jay Glazer on Jayden Daniels' draft stock

What Daniels did so well during his college career was that he went from being a really athletic and dynamic player athletically at Arizona State to a guy who was controlling the game from the pocket. He became more well-rounded as his college career went on, as opposed to just being elite in one or two categories. He was much better at getting the ball out on time and on target as his career went along.

4. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.

I toyed around with possibly ranking Penix third because I'm just such a huge fan of his.

Before the season, I thought he was a dark horse candidate to win the Heisman. He lived up to those expectations, finishing second in the race.

There's one thing that Penix is incredible at, and it's the one thing that you see quarterbacks have to do the most in playoff situations: controlling the game with leverage throws from the pocket in the heat of the moment. Penix does that as well as any of these players.

Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. in Joel Klatt’s top 5 QBs in 2024 NFL Draft

Now, is he deficient in some of the five aforementioned categories? Sure, and there are also going to be questions about his injury history, as he suffered season-ending shoulder and knee injuries during his career. But he did just play two full seasons without re-injuring himself, and he was reliable.

Nobody was required to control the game from the pocket in college more than Penix. The Huskies didn't win unless he was controlling the game from the pocket. His ability to understand the schematics of defense and then throw with leverage down the field is second to none. It's uncanny.

When I say leverage, and I've talked about it a little bit on this, what you see is that even if Penix's throwing the ball 30, 40, 50 yards downfield, he's missing on the correct side. The ball has proper leverage. He's always putting his player between the ball and the defender. Penix is always putting the odds in the receiver's favor. It's exquisite.

A lot of people would just say because of his injury history that Penix is immobile and he can't really move around. He might not be a threat with his legs, and that's where he falls short compared to the other top three prospects. But think about his ability to manipulate the pocket, move in the pocket and then create. He did that in the Sugar Bowl this past season. His performance in that game is a case study of how you have to play in the playoffs in the NFL. This guy was pressured 16 times and didn't take a sack!

When should Penix Jr. be drafted?

Penix didn't play well against Michigan, but it's in there. That's one of the things that you've got to understand about college players: They're never going to be great every single game. They have highs and lows, ups and downs, partly because the players around them have wild ebbs and flows.

But what you do see is the potential for Penix to be pretty great all the time. It might be a lot of fit with him, where he goes, who he gets to throw to, who his offensive coordinator is. But this guy's game translates.

5. Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy

McCarthy has similar elements to Maye, which I feel gives him a really high ceiling. He's got elements of all five tools. They flashed at times.

The knock against McCarthy is going to be that we didn't have to see it all the time. If Penix was asked to throw the ball from the pocket in a post-snap read down the field 15-to-20 times per game, McCarthy was maybe asked to do so just three-to-seven times per game. That's something that Michigan didn't do a lot and it didn't need to because it always had the lead, and it was outside of its identity.

J.J. McCarthy in Joel Klatt’s top 5 QBs in 2024 NFL Draft

McCarthy will be required to make many more of those throws in the NFL than he did in college. So, there is a bit of a projection factor here, but he has played a ton of football. He was 26-1 as a starter at Michigan.

Does McCarthy's game translate? Yes, of course it translates. He wasn't running on a college offense. He was running Jim Harbaugh's offense, which is a pro-style offense. He was handling protections. He was handling run checks. All of those things are going to translate and he did so by the way, in an incredibly unselfish manner. Name any other five-star quarterback who wouldn't care what his stats were and do anything for the team. Michigan handed the ball off all the time. Blake Corum got all of the touchdowns even though McCarthy easily could've gotten more.

Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy declares for the 2024 NFL Draft

That attitude is unique. That's going to be a huge plus for him in his evaluation, and when these evaluators are trying to rank him for the next level. He just turned 21 in January, so I thought his superpower was his unselfishness.

But there are these moments when you watch him on tape when he flashes high potential, a high ceiling that reminds you of the top two quarterbacks in this draft in the right fit. McCarthy could be one of the quarterbacks from this draft that we talk about and say, "Man, why didn't we see that? Of course he's having a ton of success."

Honorable mention: Oregon QB Bo Nix

I would be remiss if I didn't share some thoughts on the player I've got ranked sixth.

Is Nix as talented as some of these other guys? Maybe not. But if you looked at all those quarterbacks that were selected in the last 10 years, he's better than a lot of those guys. He's more of a point guard, and he's a little bit more cerebral.

Nix's superpower is that the ball is on target and on time. When you watch Oregon play, that ball left his hand perfectly in rhythm. That style of player is going to be a great fit for somebody in the NFL. He's incredibly smart and handled a lot of checks on the field that were checks that were not built in.

Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. BEST NFL fit & draft comparisons

The fact that Nix was able to do that tells me that this guy, at least from a college perspective, is about as smart as they can possibly come. You should expect that as well, because he started 61 games in college.

Nix is an easy first-round selection to me.

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports' lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast "The Joel Klatt Show." Follow him on X/Twitter at @joelklatt and subscribe to the "Joel Klatt Show" on YouTube.