College Basketball

Sweet 16 predictions, expert picks, best bets for NCAA tournament

Updated Mar. 22, 2023 11:36 a.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The first two rounds of the 2023 NCAA Tournament are in the books, meaning it's already time to place your bets on the Sweet 16!

We’re betting on every single game in some way, shape or form throughout all of March Madness. You read that right: Every. Single. Game. Whether it's against the spread (ATS), on the moneyline, or picking an Over/Under, we have you covered.

We saw upsets galore in the first weekend of March Madness. Can the underdogs keep barking? As for your bets, whether you are up or down, there is still a chance for you to win a couple of bucks. Fortunately, every game can be an edge-of-your-seat thrill ride when you have a little pizza money invested.

So let's get to our best Sweet 16 picks (with all odds via FOX Bet).

THURSDAY'S GAMES

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Kansas State

The Big Ten was loaded this season, putting eight teams in the tournament. And Michigan State is the last one standing.

The Spartans were the sixth-best 3-point shooting team this season, but amazingly, they’ve only made 7 of 30 in the tournament en route to beating two Power 5 teams. How dangerous do they become if they start hitting from behind the arc?

This game has the best individual matchup in the Sweet 16: Markquis Nowell of the Wildcats (27 points, nine assists vs. Kentucky) against Tyson Walker, who is 13 of 21 on 2-pointers in the tournament. I'm not a trend guy, but it's worth noting that Tom Izzo's teams are 18-6 in Sweet 16 or Elite 8 games.

K-State opened as a small favorite and all the money is on Michigan State.

PICK: Kansas State (+2 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2 points (or win outright)

No 8. Arkansas vs. No. 4 UConn

The best Sweet 16 game, period.

Can the Razorbacks slow down UConn center Adama Sanogo, who has dominated the first two rounds with 52 points and 21 rebounds? Makhi Mitchell is foul-prone, and Kamani Johnson is too small. Or can Arkansas push the tempo and speed up the Huskies, who want to play at a snail’s pace?

If UConn wins the pace battle, it will be difficult for a poor-shooting Arkansas team (318th on 3-pointers out of 363) to pull off the miracle.

The world is on UConn here, and I need the Huskies in my brackets. But I’ll take the points and Eric Musselman because this game will be a grind.

PICK: Arkansas (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)

No. 9 FAU vs. No. 4 Tennessee

Florida Atlantic lives on the offensive glass, collecting 18 vs Memphis in a last-second win, and then 15 against Fairleigh Dickinson in a tight game. That edge is gone against Tennessee, which rates as the seventh-best team in the country in offensive rebounding.

For a team that plays a slow pace, laying points with Tennessee is dangerous (see the first-round match with Louisiana), and I prefer to back Rick Barnes as an underdog. Toss in the Vols being a poor free throw shooting team, and I’ll back the Owls.

PICK: FAU (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 UCLA

Gonzaga has the nation’s longest active win streak (11) and it feels like the wrong team is favored. If you believe in defense, then take UCLA (second in defensive efficiency).

If you’re an offensive guy, Gonzaga is your side (first in offensive efficiency). Tough for me to take the Bruins without knowing the status of David Singleton (ankle) and Adem Bona (only 21 minutes vs. Northwestern). Bona is their best chance to slow Drew Timme because Kenneth Nwuba is always in foul trouble.

Gonzaga is 3-1 against teams left in the Sweet 16; UCLA has played none of them.

PICK: Gonzaga (+1.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)

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FRIDAY'S GAMES

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 1 Alabama

The Aztecs are a dogged defensive team, but it’s one thing to lock up mid-majors like Charleston and Furman, and another to face an elite offense like Alabama. Even with Brandon Miller's 5-for-22 shooting, Alabama still registered two 20+ point wins.

Alabama’s twin towers of Noah Clowney and Charles Bediako will force the Aztecs to hit from the perimeter, and short of a career game from 23-year-old leading scorer Matt Bradley, I’m not sure SDSU can keep up.

Mountain West teams are 0-6 straight up (SU) and 1-5 ATS in the Sweet 16. I also lean to the Under.

PICK: Alabama (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

No. 5 Miami vs. No. 1 Houston

I am 0-2 going against Miami in this tournament, and now you have the team that ranks 15th of 16 in terms of efficiency (only Princeton is worse) going against the most efficient, Houston.

Miami’s healthy, and their guards – Isaiah Wong (27 points vs. Indiana) and Nijel Pack (21 points vs. Drake) – match up very well against Houston.

The Cougars struggled until very late against Northern Kentucky and then trailed Auburn at halftime by 10 before a second-half blitzkrieg. What worries me is their offensive struggles if the defense isn’t generating turnovers.

If Wong and Pack can create their own shots and stay out of foul trouble, the Hurricanes will be in this until the end.

PICK: Miami (+7 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)

No. 15 Princeton vs. No. 6 Creighton

The big fear here is Creighton overlooking the 15th-seeded Tigers because a matchup against top-seeded Alabama looms.

Princeton held Missouri to 6-for-22 shooting on 3-pointers, dominated the offensive glass (16-8) and rolled to victory in the second round, but they won’t sneak up on Creighton with five days to prepare.

The history of double-digit seeds as double-digit underdogs in the Sweet 16 ain’t pretty – 1-16 straight up, with Saint Peter’s toppling Purdue last year as the lone victory.

You aren’t going to get rich laying double digits, but Creighton has 17 wins by double figures this season.

PICK: Creighton (-10 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 10 points

No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas

Before you run to bet Texas, remember how good of a coach Xavier’s Sean Miller is. He’s 5-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight as an underdog, which is the spot he’s in now and will be if the Musketeers break through to face Houston.

Xavier has been flying under the radar this season as Creighton got all the preseason Big East ink, and Marquette’s story was hugely popular, while UConn was a looming threat. Meanwhile, Xavier is 4-2 against teams that remain in the Sweet 16, tied for Alabama with the most such wins.

After hitting 13-of-23 3-pointers in a win over Colgate, Texas was just 1-of-13 on 3s against Penn State. The matchup to watch is 6-foot-9 Dylan Disu of Texas (28 and 10 vs. PSU) vs. 24-year-old Jack Nunge of Xavier (three 20/10 games this season).

Whoever stays out of foul trouble wins.

PICK: Xavier (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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