College Basketball

Which struggling blue blood presents betting value for March Madness title run?

Updated Feb. 27, 2023 12:12 p.m. ET

March Madness odds, more often than not, have a host of college basketball blue bloods at the top. That’s hardly surprising.

What is surprising is when some of college hoops’ biggest brand names are well down the list in odds to win the NCAA Tournament. Such is the case right now with North Carolina, Duke and Kentucky.

So how did that happen, and are those three teams still worthy of your March Madness betting dollars?

WynnBet senior trader Matt Lindeman and avid college basketball bettor Andy Molitor share their intel and insights on the NCAA Tournament odds market. Let's dive in.

Carolina Blues

The Tar Heels’ plunge in NCAA Tourney odds is arguably the most noteworthy. Last season, North Carolina was a No. 8 seed in the bracket, well below the program’s usual standards. However, Carolina made a run all the way to the championship game before losing to the Kansas Jayhawks 72-69.

Then, the Tar Heels opened this season No. 1 in the AP poll. But Carolina is a lackluster 18-11 straight up (SU) and a horrific 9-19-1 against the spread (ATS), 358th among the 363 Division I programs.

At a time when the Tar Heels would usually ramp up for the Big Dance and bolster their credentials in the March Madness odds market, they were instead on a 2-5 SU slide before Saturday’s 71-63 home win over Virginia.

"North Carolina has been the biggest disappointment relative to our opening numbers," Lindeman said. "They started at 10/1 with us and have climbed all the way up to 75/1 now. In hindsight, [coach] Hubert Davis and the Heels were clearly overvalued after their late-season surge [last year] brought them within a bucket of a national title."

That said, Lindeman isn’t altogether surprised, as he considers Carolina a team in transition.

"UNC is still only two years removed from Roy Williams’ remarkable stretch in Chapel Hill, and it’s tough to ask any first-time coach to maintain that level of play," Lindeman said.

Molitor echoed Lindeman’s assessment of Carolina being a disappointment.

"A team returning so much of its production after a deep run usually stays within a reasonable distance of their expectations. So where the Tar Heels currently sit is pretty jarring," Molitor said. "Maybe the loss of Brady Manek [to graduation] mattered more than anyone thought since a big part of the issue is just horrific 3-point shooting."

The Tar Heels are shooting just 30.1% from beyond the arc, 344th in the nation.

"Between that and the inability to close out games, their likely 10-10 finish in conference play probably keeps them out of the NCAA Tourney, barring a big run in the ACC Tourney," Lindeman said.

Minus Mike

At 21-8 SU, the Blue Devils aren’t quite as off the mark as their Tobacco Road brethren in Chapel Hill – although Duke is a paltry 11-18 ATS, nearly as bad as Carolina. In the plus column, Duke has won four in a row heading into its final two regular-season games.

But the Blue Devils are still a long way from their preseason NCAA Tournament odds.

"Ironically, Duke and their biggest rival are in a similar spot. Like UNC, the Devils are a program in transition after the retirement of you know who," Lindeman said, alluding, of course, to coach Mike Krzyzewski, who stepped down after last season’s Final Four run. "Duke opened 15/1 with us and made it as high as 75/1 two weeks ago before settling in at 50/1. Jon Scheyer inherited a difficult situation after the Devils lost No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero to the NBA. And understandably, they’ve had some head-scratching losses with a new coach and freshman-laden team."

Molitor still sees the Blue Devils in the NCAA Tournament field, but with a much worse seed than the norm.

"While not as stark of a disaster as UNC, going in as a seven or eight seed isn’t where that program expects to be," Molitor said. "It may just be Scheyer settling into being a head coach after decades of the stability of Coach K. They have a shot to get right yet and be a competitive force. They’ve yet to lose a home game and have held serve against most teams they should beat."

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Lagging in Lexington

Perennial contender Kentucky has also seen its March Madness odds tail off significantly over the course of the season. On a positive note, though, the Wildcats (20-9 SU, 14-14-1 ATS) have won four in a row SU, including Saturday’s 86-54 wipeout of visiting Auburn.

Unlike Carolina, the Wildcats weren’t ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP poll. But they did lead a poll that tends to carry more weight with the smart set.

"Kentucky was the preseason No. 1 for KenPom, but didn’t get quite as much respect from betting markets early, opening at 15/1," Lindeman said. "They’re now up to 50/1 and sit 32nd in KenPom’s rankings. Only two teams have finished lower [in KenPom] under John Calipari in his 14-year tenure in Lexington.

"The Hall of Fame coach hit a home run in luring Oscar Tshiebwe to Kentucky two years ago. But otherwise, Calipari has been on the wrong end of a few transfers, with incoming upperclassmen not quite living up to their billing and former Cats like Bryce Hopkins (Providence) going on to have great success elsewhere."

And keep in mind that in last season’s Big Dance, second-seeded Kentucky was shown the door immediately in a stunning 85-79 loss to No. 15 seed St. Peter’s. Pressure could be building to move on from the Hall of Fame coach.

"If Calipari can’t make a splash in this year’s tournament and disappoints again next year with a mega-loaded recruiting class, we’re going to find out if that lifetime contract really is iron-clad," Lindeman said.

Molitor believes that, like Duke, Kentucky could find itself in an unfriendly NCAA Tournament seed position, perhaps No. 7 or 8. However, unlike Duke:

"Kentucky has some jarring losses this year," Molitor said, specifically pointing to two setbacks: 71-68 as a 20-point home favorite against South Carolina; and 75-68 as a 7-point road favorite against Georgia. "Some of the inconsistency on offense can be explained by the scheme. A lot of mid-range jumpers instead of shots from deep and easy stuff from Tshiebwe equals inefficient offensive sets.

"I have no idea if they can sort that out, but they have won their last four and could jump up to a 5-6 seed if they finish the season strong."

After the blowout win over Auburn, WynnBet shifted Kentucky from +5000 to +4000 in NCAA Tourney futures odds. But that still leaves the Wildcats behind 16 teams and tied with seven others at 40/1.

Money Talks

So what does the betting action say about this trio of blue bloods, none of which are playing up to the usual standard? Lindeman touched on WynnBet’s position to each team in the NCAA Tournament futures market.

"Oddly enough, we took a decent-sized bet on Kentucky a couple of weeks ago, so we don’t do very well to the Wildcats. We win to Duke, but North Carolina is our best result. There just hasn’t been much interest in the Heels at any point."

Lindeman could perhaps see taking Carolina at +7500, though he’s hardly pushing the Tar Heels.

"North Carolina has the most upside of the three, but the Tar Heels’ path to a tournament bid grows increasingly difficult with every bad loss they take," he said. "Duke and Kentucky both have the misfortune of their best player being a big man" – Duke is led by 7-foot center Kyle Filipowski and Kentucky by 6-9 forward Tshiebwe. "Navigating through six consecutive games against elite competition without running into foul trouble at some point is near impossible.

"Unless UNC makes an impressive run through the ACC Tournament, I think I’d steer clear of all three teams."

Said Molitor on the three teams’ NCAA Tourney prospects: "As always, price is important, and it’s hard to see you getting a discount on any of these teams, considering the name brand they bring and all the casual bettors pouring money into the NCAA Tournament. They’re probably stay-away teams in the futures market unless something clicks and clicks fast in the ACC/SEC tournaments."

Zig Zags

Gonzaga might not be considered a blue blood in the vein of North Carolina, Kentucky or Duke, but the Bulldogs have perennially been high up on the NCAA Tournament odds board. And although the Zags haven’t slid as far down that odds board this year, it’s been a bit of an offseason thus far.

The Bulldogs finished the regular season 25-5 SU. Similar to Carolina and Duke, Gonzaga has been terrible for bettors at 11-17-1 ATS. In March Madness futures odds, WynnBet opened the Zags at +1000, stretched them out as far as +4000 and now has Gonzaga at +2500.

"Even Gonzaga is bound to suffer some attrition after losing top-five picks to the NBA in consecutive years," Lindeman said, alluding to Jalen Suggs in 2021 and Chet Holmgren in 2022. "It’s no real surprise the Zags are down a bit this year, and Mark Few certainly gets a pass, given his program has been a model of consistency over the last two decades."

Still – much more so than Duke, Carolina or Kentucky – Lindeman is intrigued by Gonzaga as March Madness approaches.

"The Zags are one team I’m looking forward to seeing in March," he said. "They’ll come into the tournament with no significant expectations for the first time in years and get to embrace an underdog role."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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