National Football League

Super Wild Card Weekend odds: Bookmakers speak on Cowboys-Bucs, big bets, more

Updated Jan. 12, 2023 7:08 p.m. ET

In poring over Super Wild Card playoff odds, you might’ve noticed it’s a bit of feast or famine. There are three games with point spreads of more than a touchdown – including one now approaching two touchdowns – and three games with spreads of 3 points or fewer.

No middle ground is being given here, at least at the moment. And missing quarterbacks are a key reason for the bigger numbers, particularly off of Wednesday news on two AFC games.

Let’s dive into much more on those matchups and other Super Wild Card betting nuggets.

No Tua, No Chance

Late Sunday night, WynnBet opened the Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills game at Bills -11. That was premised on the strong feeling that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa would not play in the 1 p.m. ET Sunday matchup.

But there was still a chance Tagovailoa might play. And some of the early action came from bettors certainly hoping that was the case.

"The action was on the Dolphins early in the week. Monday and Tuesday, there was a possibility that Tua was going to play in the game. We took a bet at every level – 11, 10.5 and 10 – on the Dolphins, but never going below 9.5," WynnBet senior trader John Manica said Wednesday evening. "The news came in today that Tua would not play, which our room was suspicious of to begin with, considering he has had multiple concussions in a short amount of time. This has us in a wonderful position of needing the heavily favored Bills.

"The move back up was aggressive. Most spots went from 9 or 9.5 all the way to 13. This is where the market stands. We have had zero interest in the Dolphins at +13 or +550 [on the moneyline]."

Jackson Inaction

Similarly, it’s looking more and more as if Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (knee) will not suit up for Sunday night’s clash with the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals. WynnBet, among others, opened Cincinnati -6.5 on the rationale that Jackson, at best, would be limited and, at worst, would not play.

Jackson didn’t practice Wednesday, prompting several sportsbooks to stretch the Bengals from -7 out to -8.5 and even -9. With no official word on Jackson’s status, WynnBet didn’t push the number quite as much. After opening Bengals -6.5 (-105) late Sunday night and sitting at -7 Wednesday morning, WynnBet moved to Cincy -7.5 (-120), but no further.

"We have taken limit wagers at -6.5 and -7 from respectable sources," Manica said of sharp play on the Bengals. "It is still possible that [Jackson] plays in the game. If that happens, the line will certainly move back down through the key number of 7. We have guarded against this possibility and kept [our] number the lowest in the market on the favored Bengals.

"Obviously, when the Lamar news is released, the biggest move will come, and we will react accordingly. Lamar has had ample time to rest and would be a huge miss for the Ravens if he is not ready to go in this game."

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Point-Differential Dilemma

The Minnesota Vikings are a solid 13-4 SU this season but are just 7-9-1 ATS. One reason for that is a rather alarming stat: Minnesota’s point differential reads like the outside temperature this time of year in Minneapolis.

Minus 3.

The Vikes somehow got to 13 wins despite having a negative point differential. It makes Sunday’s matchup against the New York Giants a bit more intriguing in a 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX. Especially when you recall just a few weeks ago, the Vikings needed a 61-yard final-seconds field goal to beat the visiting Giants 27-24.

But Rex Beyers, head of wagering at PlayUp USA, said that the point-differential narrative is well-known by now and that perhaps the Vikes are the side this week.

"Everybody lines up every week to bet against Minnesota. You now have it to a point where I think there’s a little value in Minnesota," Beyers said before pointing to the Vikes’ narrow Week 16 win vs. the Giants. "I think they’re a little better than they played that day. Anything 3 or less, I’d rather need the favorite."

Minnesota is currently -3 at PlayUp and pretty much everywhere else.

Sharp-Side Seahawks

With the San Francisco 49ers on fire at the moment – 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games – it’s no surprise they opened as double-digit home favorites against the Seattle Seahawks. Most books started at 49ers -10 and got to -10.5, and there were even some -11s out there for the first game on the Super Wild Card odds board.

Beyers felt -10 was the right spot, and that’s where he opened. But astute bettors always shop around, checking multiple sportsbooks for the best number. In some instances earlier this week, the Niners were -10.5 and even -11.

Professional bettors couldn’t resist taking the Seahawks +11 or +10.5. And even though Beyers’ opening number at PlayUp was lower, it got sharp Seahawks action too.

"Clearly, Seattle is the sharp side. We took action at +10. That doesn’t mean there won’t be buyback on the 49ers. A lot of people think the Niners can win it all," Beyers said before noting the marketplace on San Francisco the past few weeks. "The 49ers were getting the cash at numbers that were too low. Now, there’s a little bit of an overreaction. I made it 10, to begin with, and it’s gone down."

Indeed, as of late Wednesday night, the 49ers are -9.5 at most books, though PlayUp is hanging on at -10. The Niners (13-4 SU, 11-6 ATS) are the NFC’s No. 2 seed, while the Seahawks (9-8 SU, 7-10 ATS) barely got into the postseason as the NFC’s No. 7 seed. Kickoff is at 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX.

One element that could help keep Seattle close on Saturday: the elements. There’s a 100% chance of rain in the Bay Area, and it could be heavy at times.

Obviously, scoring on both sides could be impacted, and oddsmakers have reacted to that prospect. The consensus opening total was 43.5 Sunday night, and it’s now down to 42 at most sportsbooks.

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Backing Brady’s Bunch

OK, let’s get to the game that everybody is looking forward to: Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. You’ve got Tom Brady trying to summon a little more playoff magic, and what’s more, he and his Bucs are actually home underdogs.

Of course, that status is deserved after Tampa went 8-9 straight up (SU) and a league-worst 4-12-1 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season. This is not a good football team.

However, Dallas (12-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) didn’t look good late this season, notwithstanding a 40-34 home shootout win over NFC No. 1 seed Philadelphia. The Cowboys nearly lost at home to the dismal Houston Texans (27-23 victory), lost at Jacksonville 40-34 in overtime and then laid a Week 18 egg in a 26-6 setback at Washington.

Oh, and there is that whole Tom Brady thing.

"The number for this game opened as Dallas a 3-point favorite against the TB12 Bucs," WynnBet’s Manica said. "That number lasted for about a day. Monday, we saw some two-way action on the game at the key number of 3. Tuesday, we took two limit wagers on Tampa Bay that caused us to move off the key number to [Cowboys] -2.5, where we stand now. The 3-point home playoff ‘dog was too juicy for the sharps.

"The ticket count favors Dallas. I suspect the Cowboy backers will come out eventually. However, if the game goes back up to 3, Tampa Bay will surely be bet again."

Dylan Brossman, trading operations senior manager at FOX Bet, anticipates this line might head north of Cowboys -2.5 by the time Monday night rolls around.

"The spread feels about right, with 58% of tickets on the Bucs, but 51% of money on the Cowboys," Brossman said, noting Dallas is down a half-point from the -3 opener. "I would not be surprised if some late money comes in on the Cowboys and pushes it back to -3 or -3.5."

The Sharp Side

A respected professional bettor here in Las Vegas has an opinion on half of the games on the Super Wild Card odds board. He got the Vikings -2.5 vs. the Giants, the Bucs right out of the gate at +3.5 vs. the Cowboys and the Chargers -1 at the Jags.

He’s particularly enthused about the Cowboys-Bucs Monday night wager.

"I don’t trust the Dallas defense. I’ve been telling a lot of people that for many weeks," he said. "Now the secondary is depleted. Dallas just does not have the pieces on the defensive side of the ball. And I don’t trust them offensively to take care of the ball on the road against Tampa.

"I like the way [wideout] Chris Godwin is getting involved for Tampa. I took +3.5 when it opened, and I recommend taking +3. If you feel frisky, grab Tampa moneyline."

Two-Way Play

Perhaps not surprisingly, the game with the shortest spread is the one getting the most two-way action. On Wednesday night, the Los Angeles Chargers sat as 2-point favorites against the host Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Chargers (10-7 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) underperformed this season after being a trendy preseason pick in the Super Bowl odds market. Meanwhile, the Jaguars looked like they had another dismal season in store when, after Week 8, they were 2-6 SU.

But Trevor Lawrence & Co. won seven of their last nine games – including the last five in a row (4-1 ATS) – to claim the title in a dreadful AFC South, finishing at 9-8 SU (8-8-1 ATS).

WynnBet opened the visiting Chargers -1.5 for this prime-time Saturday contest (8:15 p.m. ET kickoff).

"Jacksonville supporters came out early and drove the number down to a pick, with several $1,000 and $2,000 wagers," Manica said. "Then the market came back quickly, as the Chargers found most of the support after the opening move that favored the Jags. This is the tightest spread of Super Wild Card Weekend and likely the most difficult game to predict, as evidenced by the two-way action we have already seen. A true toss-up."

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I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

With the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds board still percolating for a couple more days, there’s not too much to report yet. But Caesars Sports took one very unique bet on Seahawks-Niners.

Midweek, Caesars has San Fran as a 10-point favorite. Yet one high-rolling customer apparently doesn’t want to take any chances. The bettor put $100,000 on an alternate spread of 49ers +4.5. Yes, you read that right: the bettor has San Fran as a 4.5-point underdog.

Such a bet comes at quite a premium price: -1204. So the bettor would profit a very modest $8,305.65 if the 49ers come through. Since this bet seems a mortal lock to hit, I suppose you could look at it from a return-on-investment perspective. And in this economy, 8.3% ROI is nothing to sneeze at.

As for more traditional bets, Caesars reported taking a massive $880,000 play on Ravens +6.5. That customer is absolutely praying that an at least somewhat capable Lamar Jackson is under center Sunday night in Cincy.

Finally, on Monday’s College Football Playoff national championship game, there were a slew of late-arriving bets at multiple books. Most of those wagers were on Georgia, making them easy winners, as the Bulldogs blasted TCU 65-7. A sample:

$550,000 on Georgia -12.5 at BetMGM; bettor wins $500,000
$440,000 on Georgia -13.5 at DraftKings; bettor wins $400,000
$184,404.50 (yes, 50 cents!) on Georgia moneyline -450; bettor wins $40,978.78.

Pretty much none of us have that kind of disposable income. Here’s hoping your much more reasonable wagers cash out this weekend.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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